In what was otherwise a solid jobs report – one which Donald Trump may or may not have leaked in advance – in which the establishment survey reported that a higher than expected 223K jobs were added at a time when numbers below 200K are expected for an economy that is allegedly without slack, the biggest surprise was not in the Establishment survey, but the household, where the unemployment rate tumbled once more, sliding to a new 18 year low of 3.8%, even as the participation rate declined once again, as a result of a stagnant labor force, which was virtually unchanged (161.527MM in April to 161.539MM in May, even as the total civilian non-inst population rose by 182K to 257.454LMM).
What was perhaps more interesting, however, is that for all the talk that the slack in the labor force is set to decline, precisely the opposite is taking place, because in May, the number of people not in the labor force increased by another 170K, rising to 95.915 million, a new all time high.
Adding to this the 6.1 million currently unemployed Americans, there are 102 million Americans who are either unemployed or out of the labor force (and it is also worth noting that of those employed 26.9 million are part-time workers).
In other words, contrary to prevailing economist groupthink, there is a lot of slack in the economy, and if as the latest Beige Book revealed, employers are now hiring drug addicts and felons to make up for the shortage of qualified candidates, a long time will be pass before wages see significant gains.
#1: Justified To: Deckard (#0)
If you can’t find a job you need to get out of the chair and step outside and go apply.
Economy is the best its been in 20 years.
https://youtu.be/PKpQRjj_WbU
Billy Currington - People Are Crazy
Justified posted on 2018-06-01 21:58:12 Reply Private Reply
#2: GrandIsland To: Deckard (#0)
That’s a lot of lazy pothead shatbags.
GrandIsland posted on 2018-06-01 22:09:34 Reply Private Reply
#3: Justified To: All (#1)
under 18(children) = 74 million.
retired = 80 million.
College = 16 Million.
working = 110 Million.
Total counted = 280 million out of 326million
Figure many retired, college and children are working(used 10% for a guess) gives 263 million. That leaves 63million not working. Where did they get the 98million? 25million discrepancy?
Just so you see the math on cross over (74+80+16=170milloin)170*10%=17million crossover group.
Justified posted on 2018-06-02 08:22:44 Reply Private Reply
#4: misterwhite To: Justified (#3)
I have retired (over 65) at 43 million. Also the number of working is 161 million (134 full-time and 27 million part- time)
So, 326 million Americans minus 161 million working equals 165 million not working:
65+ ... 43 million
Age 0-17 ... 74 million
College ... 18 million
Disabled(SSDI) ... 10 million
Unemployed ... 6 million
Incarcerated ... 2 million.
That comes to 153 million -- meaning I'm 12 million short.
misterwhite posted on 2018-06-02 09:57:18 Reply Private Reply
#5: Justified To: misterwhite (#4)
I just found from SSA 47million over the age of 65 which I believe you can retire at 62. (https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/quickfacts/stat_snapshot/)
I thought it was strange that there were more retired than children!
Where did you get the 161million working?
Justified posted on 2018-06-02 10:05:38 Reply Private Reply
#6: Justified To: misterwhite (#4)
That number gives 26million not counted?
Take about 10% cross group(74+47+18=139) is 13.9million. Add that to the 26 which is 39.9million.
Justified posted on 2018-06-02 10:13:16 Reply Private Reply
#7: misterwhite To: Justified (#5)
From the article:
"as a result of a stagnant labor force, which was virtually unchanged (161.527MM in April to 161.539MM in May) ... and it is also worth noting that of those employed 26.9 million are part-time workers."
On the BLS website, they show 126 million full-time and 27 million part-time (total 153 million).
(https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat08.htm)
Your figure of 110 million is correct for those working 35 hours or more. But there are millions more who work less but are still considered full-time.
misterwhite posted on 2018-06-02 10:41:54 Reply Private Reply
#8: misterwhite To: Justified (#5)
Where did you get 80 million retired?
misterwhite posted on 2018-06-02 10:47:34 Reply Private Reply
#9: misterwhite To: Justified (#6)
Well, there are 22 million federal, state and local government employees. Plus the military. I don't know how they fit into employment statistics.
But the important point is this -- the article shouts "Record 95.9 Million Americans Are No Longer In The Labor Force". But there's a good reason why they're not in the labor force. It's not as thogh they were kicked out and are currently looking for work.
misterwhite posted on 2018-06-02 11:00:20 Reply Private Reply