It's always easy to discount national polling, when it turns against you. "Fifty state elections!" the losing side cries. "Electoral college! Swing states!"
Donald Trump is now losing so badly, that none of that even matters anymore.
In the last four elections, the Electoral College projections were very close. Everything came down to the "toss-up" states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania. George W. Bush won them twice, as did Barack Obama, so they went on to win the Presidency.
But the current polling is so bad, as Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton, that the toss-up states don't even matter anymore Excluding the toss-up states, RCP has Clinton up 272-174, which means Trump could run the table of NV, AZ, IA, MO, OH, GA, NC, FL and he still loses 272-266.
538 doesn't do toss-up states, but their read of the polls has Trump down to a mere 11% chance of winning, and an underdog even to win a single state Barack Obama won in 2012.
270 to win puts it at Clinton 273-164 Trump.
NBC has Clinton ahead 288-174.
The way things are going now, the GOP is going to get wiped out in November on a scale we haven't seen since before Ronald Reagan.
Poster Comment:
#1: Stoner To: Willie Green (#0)
Willie, I wouldn't be so sure of that if I were you.
And BTW, your little video depicts Obama & Hillary supporters.
Stoner posted on 2016-08-18 15:31:25 Reply Private Reply
#2: nolu chan To: Willie Green (#0)
Yes, indeed. It's over! As of 18 August, the LA Times daily tracking poll shows that Hillary has an insurmountable lead of 6 tenths of a point, which, when rounded off, equals a full point.
nolu chan posted on 2016-08-18 15:56:31 Reply Private Reply
#3: Vicomte13 To: Willie Green (#0)
Maybe it's true and the nation will reject Trump and elect the felon.
But maybe the people will tire of being manipulated and pull a Brexit,
Time will tell.
Vicomte13 posted on 2016-08-18 16:05:42 Reply Private Reply
#4: Titorite2 To: Willie Green (#0)
Titorite2 posted on 2016-08-18 18:45:07 Reply Private Reply
#5: Jameson To: Willie Green (#0)
What can Donald offer that is any different than what he has offered so far?
His message lacks substance and appeals primarily to his radicalized base. He has nothing more to offer the non-affiliated middle.
He's already gone completely negative.... there;s no turning back.
Is this what America wants?
Jameson posted on 2016-08-18 20:33:58 Reply Private Reply
#6: ConservingFreedom To: nolu chan (#2)
Pick that cherry. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election- forecast/national-polls/#plus
ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-08-18 21:17:42 Reply Private Reply
#7: nolu chan To: ConservingFreedom (#6)
Read what's at your link and RCP.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
RCP Average
CLINTON +5.8
It will be closer when the two oldest polls on the RCP list drop off. They have Clinton up +13 and +8. The seven most recent polls indicate Clinton +4, +2, +4, +6, +6, +4, +5.
- - - - - - - - - -
538 relects adjusted poll results of:
CLINTON: +4.8
nolu chan posted on 2016-08-19 00:28:51 Reply Private Reply
#8: ConservingFreedom To: nolu chan (#7)
ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-08-19 21:06:05 Reply Private Reply
#9: nolu chan To: ConservingFreedom (#8)
They contradict the exaggeration "Trump is losing so badly, the toss-up states don’t even matter" just about as well as 0.6.
nolu chan posted on 2016-08-20 00:43:03 Reply Private Reply
#10: ConservingFreedom To: nolu chan (#9)
Not really - the same 538 model that shows Hillary up by 3.9 (today) also shows that the states where her (national-poll-adjusted) lead is 4.0 or better are enough for a majority of electoral votes and none of them are NV, AZ, IA, MO, OH, GA, NC, or FL.
I will say, though, that RedState's final listing of toss-up states somehow omits PA - which does still matter to the outcome.
ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-08-20 13:59:21 Reply Private Reply
#11: BorisY To: Willie Green (#0)
where's willie
BorisY posted on 2019-04-06 19:19:06 Reply Private Reply
#12: buckeroo To: nolu chan (#2)
buckeroo posted on 2019-04-06 19:53:45 Reply Private Reply