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Its Paul Manafort, whos now in charge of Trumps new D.C. office and has taken over the all-important task of wrangling delegates for Trump at state conventions. If you dont know why him reporting directly to Trump rather than to Lewandowski is significant, read this post for a primer on the power struggle behind the scenes. If you believe Politico, Lewandowski was so eager to defend his turf from Manafort that he fired Trumps chief organizer in Colorado for defying his orders not to speak to Manafort. One thing I didnt realize when I wrote that post: Not only are Manafort and Roger Stone pals, they were actually partners at their own lobbying firm for years. Given Stones tensions with Lewandowski, having his buddy installed as Trumps new point man on a contested convention is a major victory for him in the battle for control of the campaign. The meeting at which Manafort was assigned his new duties was, go figure, contentious.
Can Manafort even the playing field with Cruz in the fight for delegates? Hes well regarded but the infrastructure he needs at the state level wont happen overnight. Three more pro-Cruz delegates were elected in Colorado yesterday with only token, and sometimes weird, opposition from Team Trump:
Trump has all but given up on the state, canceling a weekend appearance there even though two dozen or so more delegates are yet to be chosen. And the organizational problems arent limited to Colorado. Yeesh:
Manafort will need to make future delegate elections more competitive and figure out a way to woo currently unbound delegates to support Trump instead of Cruz. Not all of those unbound delegates are party officials but many are, and Cruz probably has an advantage with them since most will be closer to him ideologically than they will be to Trump. Theyll also prefer Cruz as somewhat more electable than Trump this fall, which is important for congressional races. Whats Manafort prepared to offer them? A photo with Trump giving the thumbs-up wont do it. I think. One other problem, although this is more of a concern for Trump and Lewandowski: Go look at Nate Silvers graphs of Trumps vote share state by state so far versus the vote share hes needed to win each one. Anti-Trump votes are consolidating against him, usually but not always in favor of Cruz, which means a higher bar to victory for a guy whose numbers havent grown much since the start of the race. The more he struggles on election nights, the more delegates Manafort will need to win for him behind the scenes in order to get him to 1,237. New York will help, but read what Silver says about California. Thats the state that could make or break Trump and Cruz is already within single digits of the lead with two months to go and anti-Trumpers uniting behind him in other states. Update: A mid-afternoon Friday update from the Denver Post:
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Poster Comment:
We finally find out more about Manafort. A former partner of Roger Stone and working as a volunteer, reporting directly to Trump.
#1: nolu chan To: TooConservative (#0)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_J._Manafort
nolu chan posted on 2016-04-08 16:52:07 Reply Private Reply
#2: Tooconservative To: nolu chan (#1)
NYTimes says he's volunteering. I'll believe the Slimes over Wiki this time.
But the Wiki resume doesn't give you a feel for the man himself. I can see he is very much in the mold of Roger Stone. In all likelihood, he is Stone's man inside Trump's campaign.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-08 16:57:10 Reply Private Reply
#3: Hondo68 To: TooConservative (#2)
You figure that Roger Stone is Trump's brain, like Karl Rove was Bush's brain?
Hondo68 posted on 2016-04-08 17:30:12 Reply Private Reply
#4: ConservingFreedom To: TooConservative (#0)
The Donald will make him Poet Laureate.
ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-04-08 17:34:37 Reply Private Reply
#5: ConservingFreedom To: TooConservative (#2)
Amusingly, Wikipedia's source on that is also the Slimes: www.nytimes.com/politics/...03/28/donald-trump-hires-paul-manafort-to- lead-delegate-effort/?_r=0
ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-04-08 17:37:46 Reply Private Reply
#6: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#0)
Yet Colorado says "Screw the people. They have no voice."
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-08 17:55:11 Reply Private Reply
#7: Tooconservative To: hondo68 (#3)
They have been bosom buddies for years. Stone was always in the background when Trump considered running for prez before, like for the Reform Party nomination.
I think Stone leaving the campaign was a ruse. Lewandowski is the errand boy but Trump gets his real strategy (inasmuch as he listens to anyone) from Stone. Stone has admitted that he still speaks to them by phone regularly.
Stone is so disreputable that I think this is what Trump and Stone came up with to distance Trump from Stone, an infamous figure in American politics for decades.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-08 17:56:48 Reply Private Reply
#8: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#6)
Colorado's GOP is just as free to run their primaries as they please as any other state does. States' rights include the right to organize your parties and select candidates as you see fit. You don't like it? Move to that state and get them to change their rules/laws.
The truth is, you'd have no such bitter comment to make if it was Trump cleaning up all the delegates in Colorado by playing a smart delegate game like Cruz has done. But Trump has a retarded delegate game so you're angry. And that's about all there is to it.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-08 18:00:02 Reply Private Reply
#9: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#8)
I don't have a problem with that. I'm saying that if the state GOP is going to do an end-around the voters, don't tell me how important the debates are.
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-08 18:24:09 Reply Private Reply
#10: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#9)
Except that Trump himself knows what a mistake it was to skip the Iowa debate because he was afraid blood might come spurting out of Megyn Kelly again.
That cost him. He might have managed to sink Cruz, then and there. And he missed his chance because of his own vanity.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-08 18:29:18 Reply Private Reply
#11: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#10)
One debate cost him Iowa? I don't think so.
I'm surprised you're not claiming he lost Iowa because he's disorganized, didn't have a ground game, doesn't know how to run a campaign, doesn't hire the right people, doesn't understand politics, didn't spend any money in Iowa, and hates women.
Instead, it's because he cancelled one debate. How unlike you.
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-08 18:41:58 Reply Private Reply
#12: Roscoe To: misterwhite (#11)
Roscoe posted on 2016-04-08 19:47:23 Reply Private Reply
#13: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#11)
Hold on. I am claiming all of those things.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-09 01:23:25 Reply Private Reply
#14: nolu chan To: Roscoe, misterwhite (#12)
He has marcomentum.
nolu chan posted on 2016-04-09 01:33:18 Reply Private Reply
#15: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#13)
You just said that he lost Iowa because his vanity kept him away from the last debate.
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-09 08:31:29 Reply Private Reply
#16: misterwhite To: Roscoe (#12)
Had he not won his home state of Texas, he'd already be out of the race.
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-09 08:33:53 Reply Private Reply
#17: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#15)
That doesn't mean the rest of it isn't true as well.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-09 08:46:08 Reply Private Reply
#18: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#17)
If the rest of it is true then, like Iowa, he would have lost every state.
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-09 08:53:45 Reply Private Reply
#19: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#18)
Not if he pandered to enough rubes and drew in his cult following from his TV show and the other 16 candidates stayed in way too long (thinking that Trump would self-destruct). This was why Walker dropped out and urged the others to do the same, to avoid the division of the conservative vote so that Trump could slip through.
This is actually typical for GOP primaries. A field of conservatives divide the conservative vote enought that a much more liberal candidate slips through. This would be the case with nominees like McStain and Romney.
Today, as throughout the race, Trump can't break 40% anywhere. Any other GOP nominee in the last century would have locked it up long ago. Today, Trump is struggling to break 50% in his home state. And New York is actually relevant to the GOP nomination.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-09 08:58:16 Reply Private Reply
#20: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#19)
I see. Trump needs to break 50% to have any credibility, huh? Even though the only thing he has in common with the state is that he lives in New York City.
Pretty high bar considering that Kasich -- the sitting governor of Ohio -- only got 47%. Considering that Cruz -- the sitting Senator of Texas -- only got 44%.
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-09 09:11:41 Reply Private Reply
#21: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#20)
We'll see if Trump can even do that well.
Past nominees of the GOP were routinely taking 50% or more in state after state by this point in the primaries.
Trump is now locked just under 40% and Trump has offended the rest of the electorate.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-09 09:19:07 Reply Private Reply