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We were destined to see a major Trump in disarray! piece from political media on a day when hes looking at a loss in Wisconsin, just like were destined to see Trump comeback! pieces two weeks from now when he wipes the floor with Cruz in New York. Even so, the layoffs reported here are odd. What possible reason could a billionaire candidate have to slash staff at a moment when hes desperate for people to help him organize his battle for delegates with Cruz? Even if he had the nomination locked up, why would he want to shed staffers in states like Ohio and Florida for which hell have to fight tooth and nail in November? One of the biggest worries among political pros in having Trump as nominee is that Democrats will run rings around him organizationally, given his strategy of trying to beat Cruzs superior GOTV operations through sheer media muscle. Now here he is stripping his already mediocre organization down further. Why the hell would he do that? Ive said this before but it cant be said enough: As well as hes done in the primaries thus far, imagine how well Trump could be doing if hed spent big money on organization and ads. Its not overstating it to say that Ted Cruz still has a chance at the nomination only because Trumps inattentiveness to campaign fundamentals (and frugality?) has permitted it.
The head of the data team was reportedly laid off a month ago and was replaced by his deputy, who hadnt spent much time on political strategy before joining Team Trump. If you believe Politico, some of the campaigns files are now inaccessible since the lead data guy left. Corey Lewandowski naturally denies that theres any disarray and that anyones ever objected to him cursing, although the fact that his role in the campaign is reportedly shrinking is further circumstantial evidence that strange things are afoot. Ah well. At least Trumps private mercenary force of security people is still on its game. Question for campaign pros: Assuming that Politicos theory of disarray is hyperbole, whats the logical explanation for laying off staffers during crunch time of a long primary with a general election on the horizon? Is the campaign running low on cash with Trump unwilling to pony up what he needs to make the delegate fight with Cruz more competitive? If so, isnt that another way of saying that he doesnt want to be president that badly? Im skeptical of that theory, but more people seem to be coming around to it every week: There is a lifelessness to the Trump campaign lately, a kind of refusal to stand up and do the hard work of reuniting a party that he has shattered or building an organization that can mount an effective national campaign. Hes barely begun building a fundraising network, per New York magazine, which hell surely need to keep pace with Democrats, even though hes been the national frontrunner for nearly a year and could find himself at the start of the general election campaign as soon as tomorrow, really, if Wisconsin goes his way tonight. Is the explanation just that Trumps been winging it since the beginning and intends to keep doing so for the duration of the campaign? Thats a fine argument for delegate to choose him over Cruz on the floor in Cleveland. Semi-relatedly, heres a snapshot of Reuterss national tracking poll among likely Republican voters since January 1st. The orange line is Trump, the red line is Cruz. Whats different lately?
I doubt youll see any of that Cruzmentum show up in New York two weeks from now, but if youre searching for evidence that his (likely) win in Wisconsin tonight is a sign of a broader national shift, there you have it. |
Poster Comment:
Trump could have had this locked up a while back. He wouldn't be in this position at all if he hadn't hadn't a snit over being in the Iowa debate because he thought Megyn Kelly would spurt some blood at him or something.

#1: Stoner To: TooConservative (#0)
Stoner posted on 2016-04-06 09:38:48 Reply Private Reply
#2: Tooconservative To: Stoner, tomder55 (#1)
It's very puzzling. How can you run for prez and know so little about the mechanics of winning a nomination, let alone a general election? And yet, Trump is not stupid and he could certainly hire a few pros to give him the right advice.
Trump has survived on earned media and dominating news cycles for so long that he totally undervalues organizational strength. Only in the last few weeks has he seemed to consider organization. But his decisions on staffing argue against an ability to clinch the nomination and he has no organization to run a national campaign with.
Trump has a reality show masquerading as a presidential campaign. He would have locked up the nomination easily if he hadn't left so many delegates on the table in places like Iowa (where his debate snit allowed Cruz a victory that helped keep him alive as a candidate). You only get so many unforced errors in a nomination contest.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-06 09:50:29 Reply Private Reply
#3: sneakypete To: TooConservative (#0)
Because all the free positive publicity is over,and if he keeps those people he is going to have to start digging into his own pocket to pay for them.
Since he is getting ready to drop out to make things easier for his good friend Bubbette! Clinton,why spend the money?
Especially when he might need it to start a 3rd Party run to further divide the non-Dim vote?
I dont think Mr. Trump knows whats happening on his campaign, the person said, adding everyone is in astonishment of whats going on. Its almost like theyre sabotaging themselves.
Gee,ya think?
sneakypete posted on 2016-04-06 10:33:26 Reply Private Reply
#4: Roscoe To: sneakypete (#3)
Positive publicity? Cognitive dissonance.
Roscoe posted on 2016-04-06 10:35:23 Reply Private Reply
#5: Stoner To: TooConservative (#2)
Trump is no doubt an excellent businessman. But that does not translate into political acumen. Two entirely different skill sets.
Stoner posted on 2016-04-06 10:36:04 Reply Private Reply
#6: sneakypete To: Roscoe (#4)
Well,it attracted people like you,didn't it?
sneakypete posted on 2016-04-06 10:39:11 Reply Private Reply
#7: Roscoe To: sneakypete (#6)
Roscoe posted on 2016-04-06 10:44:20 Reply Private Reply
#8: Tooconservative To: sneakypete (#3)
For a tycoon, he's amazingly cheap. And unclassy.
Self-funding? Maybe he should finally start funding himself as he's promised so many times.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-06 10:51:15 Reply Private Reply
#9: Tooconservative To: Stoner (#5)
Even that is not a very good explanation. When Trump has started businesses, he didn't overlook hiring competent help in areas outside his expertise. When he did his Trump ties, he still did marketing research, hired designers and overseas middlemen to find the factories and the workforce to produce these ties.
But when it comes to an obviously complex game like grabbing a major party political nomination, he seems to think talking about his polling, acting like a crybaby and threatening to go home, and tweeting late into the night is how you win a nomination. Which makes no sense at all.
If Trump fails to get the GOP nomination, he'll be entirely to blame for it. Not his supporters, not his staff. Trump alone will be to blame.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-06 10:55:33 Reply Private Reply
#10: SOSO To: sneakypete, TooConservative, stoner, All (#3)
Trump has always been playing at this, he was never in it to win. I stated a long time ago that he would not be putting up much of his money at all. Dollar Donald is a con artist that only risks OPM.
"Since he is getting ready to drop out to make things easier for his good friend Bubbette! Clinton,why spend the money?
Especially when he might need it to start a 3rd Party run to further divide the non-Dim vote?"
I don't think that he will, no need, he already has accomplished his goal. The REP is toast in 2016 and may never get up off of the floor, at least as any meaningful political force.
SOSO posted on 2016-04-06 11:00:52 Reply Private Reply
#11: Tooconservative To: SOSO (#10)
You wuz right. 100%.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-06 11:07:21 Reply Private Reply
#12: Stoner To: TooConservative (#9)
Agree.
Stoner posted on 2016-04-06 11:07:44 Reply Private Reply
#13: sneakypete To: Roscoe (#7)
My apologies. I knew you were a Trump supporter,so I should have dumbed it down so you could understand it.
What most people consider to be negative publicity is POSITIVE publicity when it's your enemies talking about you because it attracts voters that are very opposed to the policies of the people putting it out.
For example,two candidates that are mostly unknown are running for a local office,and suddenly adds appear from candidate A condemning candidate B for supporting the BLM crowd and the Black Panthers. How do you think the typical black voter will view candidate B after all that free "negative publicity"?
Then let's say Candidate B launces a series of negative ads telling people that "Candidate A wants to cut the taxes that pay for Affirmative Action,Black Studies programs,and other programs important to the minority community!"
How do you think white taxpayers will see THOSE "negative ads"?
If you still don't understand the concept,get a 5th grader to splain it to you.
sneakypete posted on 2016-04-06 11:14:29 Reply Private Reply
#14: SOSO To: TooConservative (#11)
That's because I might be a witch.
SOSO posted on 2016-04-06 11:19:29 Reply Private Reply
#15: Roscoe To: sneakypete (#13)
War is peace
Freedom is slavery
Ignorance is strength
Roscoe posted on 2016-04-06 11:33:35 Reply Private Reply
#16: paraclete To: TooConservative (#0)
paraclete posted on 2016-04-06 11:34:01 Reply Private Reply
#17: sneakypete To: Roscoe (#15)
Perception is everything.
I suggest you go on ebay and try to buy some. Give me a little bit of time and I might list some you can buy at a really,REALLY good price if you hit BIN and send cash. Just identify yourself as a "Trump Supporter" when you pay so I know to give you the very best price.
sneakypete posted on 2016-04-06 11:37:19 Reply Private Reply
#18: sneakypete To: paraclete (#16)
You misspelled "Chump".
sneakypete posted on 2016-04-06 11:37:59 Reply Private Reply
#19: paraclete To: sneakypete (#18)
paraclete posted on 2016-04-06 11:40:23 Reply Private Reply
#20: Roscoe To: sneakypete (#17)
Roscoe posted on 2016-04-06 11:58:07 Reply Private Reply
#21: Tooconservative To: SOSO (#14)
I already figured out you're a witch but LF is so small, what choice do I have in fellow-chatters?
Just don't hurl any abracadabras in my direction.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-06 12:30:32 Reply Private Reply
#22: Tooconservative To: paraclete (#16)
Kasich was a pretty good candidate for Congress and OH gov.
Cruz has really grown. For a long time, he sounded like a televangelist because his model of the race was of one against Bush as a frontrunner so Cruz's plan was to hold onto the Paul constitutionalists and grab a bunch of evangelicals away from Huckster and the others and fight Bush all the way to the convention (as long as a decent path to victory was still open).
And a major reason for these primaries is so that the eventual nominee (in both parties) has built a national campaign organization. Cruz has excelled at it (as a Princeton/Harvard man would). And Trump just does nothing with organization. It's all Trump, all the time. Imagine what Ron Paul could have done with Trump's numbers of supporters.
Cruz never expected a Trump. No one did. And they especially never expected a Trump who attracted a cult following of around one-third of the GOP primary electorate who stuck with him no matter how badly he shat the bed (although as many as half of those "Trump voters" are just cultish fans of his TV show or book).
But then...
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-06 12:36:06 Reply Private Reply
#23: tomder55 To: TooConservative (#2)
Stephanie Cegielski told everyone the truth . Trump was not a serious candidate in the beginning . As his barnstorming style of campaigning succeeded it all got in his head . He thought his was a new way and that he did not have to do the grunt work and organizational development necessary . He was different . He was the great businessman outsider who was going to show us all how to do this on the cheap.
Now as for NY . I think Cruz will now do better than everyone expects . His message is simple . NY is Trump's stomping ground . But what has Trump done for the state except building hotels ,and a skating rink ?
Who has Trump supported over the years ? He helped fund Evita ,Sandanista Bill ,and il duce Cuomo over the years . Outside of NYC there is a whole world of hurt as the upstate NY economy has suffered depression since well before the 2008 financial meltdown.
Cuomo dithered on fracking ,and we never got a sniff of the recovery that they had right across the border in PA.
Sandanista Bill has been trying to shut down the only success the city has ever had in education ;the charter schools . The mayor was all over Cruz' case over his idea to patrol Muslim neighborhoods even though there was a record of success when such a strategy was employed by NYC police after 9-11 .
Evita did not do a damn thing for the state in her time as Senator .Albany is one of the most corrupt state capitols in the nation. All that has been fostered on us by the Democrat Tammany Hall machine ;financed in part by Trump.
Cruz does not have to win here . He has to deny Trump the 50% threshold that is required to get a vast majority of the delegates in the complicated NY math .
tomder55 posted on 2016-04-06 13:15:21 Reply Private Reply
#24: sneakypete To: Roscoe (#20)
LOL! Good one!
sneakypete posted on 2016-04-06 13:20:42 Reply Private Reply
#25: Roscoe To: sneakypete (#24)
Roscoe posted on 2016-04-06 13:21:59 Reply Private Reply
#26: sneakypete To: tomder55 (#23)
sneakypete posted on 2016-04-06 13:25:32 Reply Private Reply
#27: sneakypete To: Roscoe (#25)
sneakypete posted on 2016-04-06 13:26:03 Reply Private Reply
#28: ConservingFreedom To: tomder55 (#23)
Sounds about right to me.
ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-04-06 14:24:08 Reply Private Reply
#29: ConservingFreedom To: sneakypete (#25)
What's the beef with Paypal?
ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-04-06 14:25:15 Reply Private Reply
#30: sneakypete To: ConservingFreedom (#29)
They have now came out in support of transgender rest rooms,and are pulling out of NC after getting millions of dollars in tax breaks to build a new center there because they claim the new "you must use the restroom that matches your gender" law just signed into law by the Governor discriminates against transsexuals.
As has been reported elsewhere,PayPal does business in at least 9 foreign countries where being a homosexual gets you a date with the executioner,and in a dozen or more countries where homosexuals are sent to prison for being homosexuals,but NC they want to boycott for insisting that people of each gender should use the rest rooms set aside for each gender?
Hell,IIRC,the Governor and his new law were ok with any business that wanted setting aside a 3rd rest room for trannies if they wanted,but that wasn't good enough for PP. They want ALL restrooms open to ALL people. Now,imagine someone going into a rest room with their child,and having them witness some "weenie wavers" LEGALLY "shaking down" while standing in full view at the urinal while the child walks by.
Is there anyone out there that DOESN'T think there are going to be a lot of children suddenly snatched up out of public restrooms to be raped and murdered with this sudden increased access?
Since WHEN is it the obligation of the government OR the business of a retail company to protect some bogus "right" of a tiny minority over the rights and will of the vast majority? Governments are elected to serve the greatest number of the people,not to punish them while rewarding a tiny miniority.
I cancelled my PP account last night over this,and let PP know that was why I cancelled the account. It may not mean much to them,but I have been a PP customer since the beginning and even had a PP credit card.
sneakypete posted on 2016-04-06 14:45:39 Reply Private Reply
#31: Tooconservative To: tomder55 (#23)
It does all ring true to me and fits the facts, like Trump failing to build a classic nationwide set of state campaign organization.
before the 2008 financial meltdown.Cuomo dithered on fracking ,and we never got a sniff of the recovery that they had right across the border in PA.
Sandanista Bill has been trying to shut down the only success the city has ever had in education ;the charter schools . The mayor was all over Cruz' case over his idea to patrol Muslim neighborhoods even though there was a record of success when such a strategy was employed by NYC police after 9-11 .
I saw Cruz laying into all these topics in a speech today in NY. Cuomo, Sharpton, Rangel, etc., all mentioned as friends of Trump and people he gave big bucks to. And the fracking controversy in upstate NY.
It is his only real strategy in NY. In the meantime, he'll continue to play for putting his delegates into Trump's delegate slots and lock up more unbound delegates.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-06 20:23:34 Reply Private Reply