Tonight was Cruz' last victory

Likely so

And Rubio is just waiting with his hoard of 172 delegates. Kasich has 54. And Bush and others have some to toss in too, for their final revenge against The Donald's sneers at them.

If Rubio and Kasich and Bush and others unbind their delegates and Cruz has hundreds of unbound delegates plus about 800 of his own delegates, Cruz could win on the first ballot against Trump, outright.

Rubio has 171. Kasich has 143 (not the 54 you cited).

Still, after NY, it may well be that Trump will have more than Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich combined.

Trump will likely end up with at least something in the neighborhood of 1200.

The GOPe will not unite to nominate Cruz.

The miscellaneous candidates have a grand total of 15 delegates. Carson's 9 is 2 more than the other 4 have.

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker

740 - Trump
514 - Cruz
171 - Rubio
143 - Kasich

9 - Carson
4 - Bush
1 - Fiorina
1 - Huckabee
1 - Paul

23 - Uncommitted

2472 total delegates

1237 needed for majority

888 remaining

Trump needs 497 for a majority.

Cruz/Kasich need 392 to stop Trump. Every delegate that Kasich wins will have Cruz finish that much further behind Trump.

Cruz needs Kasich to stay in and bag some delegates in the northeast. Kasich said so many times that he was beating Hillary in Wisconsin, maybe the Republican voters there thought he was running in the Democratic primary. Tonight, Kasich was non-competitive in every county of Wisconsin. Trump won the most counties. Cruz won the most delegates by far.

Both CNN and Fox have been doing the math based on the current polling in the remaining 13 +/- states. There is an odds on bet that Trump will be 45 or so votes short going into the convention with about 150 uncommitted/unbound delegates to be had.

I do not think current polling will have any validity when it becomes mathematically impossible for Cruz to win a majority. Wisconsin appeared good for Kasich but he was shut out in every county.

Both CNN and Fox have been doing the math based on the current polling in the remaining 13 +/- states. There is an odds on bet that Trump will be 45 or so votes short going into the convention with about 150 uncommitted/unbound delegates to be had.

I do not think current polling will have any validity when it becomes mathematically impossible for Cruz to win a majority. Wisconsin appeared good for Kasich but he was shut out in every county.

I certainly would not put any money on the predictive accuracy of the polling. Didn't one poll yesterday have Trump 10% up on Cruz in WI?

But again, IDM who the REPs wind up nominating they are toast in Nov.

Free Fred! : )

Free Fred!

Cruz is likely to be shut out in the northeast.

That speaks highly for him. The northeast ain't America.

Not a natural born citizen. His mother renounced her citizenship. That is why that asswipe cheater will not release his immigration papers. He was a Canadian until a couple of years ago.

We have one president from Kenya, and another wannabe from Canada. You got a problem with that?

It's the trend. Next month we start a reality TV series, "How to move to America, mouth off, and become president"

Outside of his citizenship, I have greater problems with Cruz. He has as great an allegiance to Mexican illegals as Americans. Like supports like. His background suggests Goldman Sacks and company. He is a lying disgrace to himself and to the American people supporting him.

Wisconsin appeared good for Kasich but he was shut out in every county.

I don't see where you get that at all. It was always Trump who was expected to do well in WI and who had led in a number of polls until a few weeks ago.

Since you've been doing delegate math, you might check out my new thread on delegate counts. It does have some state-by-state details on the mechanics of awarding GOP delegates.

How can you go for Cruz after what he did to the middle eastern Christians?

Showboating for Adelson, to little effect.

Cruz unintentionally did raise the profile for this meeting which would have gone almost unknown in American media if not for Cruz.

Not that that excuses Cruz's grandstanding.

Even so, I can think of dozens of things about Trump that I dislike as much or more than Cruz's behavior at that event.

It will take a lot of opium smoking to see how Cruz has a realistic chance to get 1237 on the first ballot even with the uncommitted and unbound delegates.

Pass the hookah, dude.

BTW, Trump is not a witch.

"Around a third of these delegates arrive at the convention unbound."

I'll say it again. If Trump walks into Cleveland with the lion's share of delegates and does not walk out with the nomination, there's going to be trouble for the GOP -- no matter who they nominate or how they nominated him.

"so is Speaker Ryan (who Trump badmouthed in his hometown, Janesville)."

Didn't I post the YouTube clip of that? Trump simply mentioned Paul Ryan's name and the crowd booed. You need that posted again? How many times will you post that lie?

If Trump walks into Cleveland with the lion's share of delegates and does not walk out with the nomination, there's going to be trouble for the GOP -- no matter who they nominate or how they nominated him.

And you somehow imagine there wouldn't be big trouble if Trump did get the nomination?

You're not scaring anyone, any more than Roger Stone is with his threats about rioting ("Days of Rage") and publishing the hotel room numbers of anti-Trump delegates (some of whom are bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot but who could dump him on the second or third ballot to defect to Cruz).

Roger Stone: We’ll disclose the hotel room number for any delegate in Cleveland who tries to “steal” the nomination from Trump

“We urge you to visit their hotel and find them.”

You really think these threats help your candidate? Or do they make Trump and his supporters more hated by everyone else? Imagine for a moment it was Cruz and his supporters threatening to riot or to bully delegates. Would you want to cave to threats from them? I don't think so.

It's a question of group dynamics. Making threats rarely prevails in relatively homogeneous groups like registered GOP voters.

Trump simply mentioned Paul Ryan's name and the crowd booed. You need that posted again?

Doesn't matter. Whether it's Trump or the kinds of supporters he draws, the offensiveness to the average WI GOP voter and to GOP voters in general is already established. You don't get to just wish it away.

There have been some elements at Trump's rallies that almost seem like plants for the Dems or perhaps agitators trying to make Trump look bad. The Bernie crowd would be likely suspects in WI.

Doesn't matter.

Yep. Truth doesn't matter to you.

Yep. Truth doesn't matter to you.

Sure, I'm the problem. Not Trump's many ignorant remarks and how he's wasted his time and failed to build up an actual winning campaign organization nationwide (an integral part of every nomination contest in both parties).

Blame me. I alone, here at little LF, have caused this terrible grief to poor maligned Donald.

Sure, I'm the problem.

You overestimate yourself.

"Doesn't matter."

The truth doesn't matter or your lies don't matter?

"the offensiveness to the average WI GOP voter"

Think they're offended now? Wait until President Trump removes that 45% protective tariff on foreign motorcycles.

The truth doesn't matter or your lies don't matter?

Both.

"And you somehow imagine there wouldn't be big trouble if Trump did get the nomination?"

Big trouble from who? Racist agitators?

So you're saying we shouldn't vote for Trump because blacks may riot?

Trump certainly brings out the true colors in people, doesn't he? If nothing else, we now see people for who they really are.

Roger Stone: We’ll disclose the hotel room number for any delegate in Cleveland who tries to “steal” the nomination from Trump

"That's not a threat. That's a promise." --John Wayne

The truth doesn't matter or your lies don't matter?

Pick one. Like I care. Or anyone else cares about a few posts by anyone here at LF.

You greatly overestimate the impact of a chat room like LF.

And Rubio is just waiting with his hoard of 172 delegates. Kasich has 54. And Bush and others have some to toss in too, for their final revenge against The Donald's sneers at them.

If Rubio and Kasich and Bush and others unbind their delegates and Cruz has hundreds of unbound delegates plus about 800 of his own delegates, Cruz could win on the first ballot against Trump, outright.

Trump WILL go into the convention with a plurality of delegates. I don't know if he can get to 1237. Trump is going to have a good week or two coming up. That probably won't continue for Western States after that. The big prize is California, and I have no clue as to how that will go.

But all that being said, I repeat, Trump will have a plurality of the delegates going into the convention. If The RNC relies on formal rules to take this from Trump, he will disrupt the convention. he is rather pissed off at his treatment from the GOP elites anyway.

And this won't be like the Ron Paul nuts demanding they be heard while they are laughed off the premises. If the RNC can't get Trump to play ball, he will essentially destroy the convention.

Why are you quoting Roger Stone? He has nothing to do with the Trump campaign, nor does the Trump campaign have anything to do with him.

Come off it. Stone is Trump's longest political adviser and buddy, going back decades. Stone admits that he is still in contact with Trump and some elements of his staff on a regular basis. And he seems to be serving as an unofficial spokesman, something he couldn't do without Trump's blessing.

But all that being said, I repeat, Trump will have a plurality of the delegates going into the convention.

Nothing in the rules suggests or states that anything less than the prescribed 1237 delegates will win the nomination. Nothing.

The nominee is the first guy to get to 1237, no matter what else happens.

If The RNC relies on formal rules to take this from Trump, he will disrupt the convention.

If situations were reversed and Cruz had the larger plurality, you'd be arguing the opposite. Because you're for Your Guy and against that Other Guy.

"That's not a threat. That's a promise." --John Wayne"

Trump certainly brings out the true colors in people, doesn't he? If nothing else, we now see people for who they really are.

The scales have fallen from your eyes, eh? A regular epiphany.

It's so surprising, given how secretive I have been about opposing Trump. When did I give myself away? Was it when Trump announced his candidacy and I promptly posted NRO's article, Witless Ape Rides Escalator? In retrospect, I may have tipped my hand with that one.

"You greatly overestimate the impact of a chat room like LF."

I see. You're saying if LF was a bigger forum, you'd tell the truth.

You're saying if LF was a bigger forum, you'd tell the truth.

I see. You're saying if LF was a bigger forum, you'd tell the truth.

No. If you weren't such an r'tard, you'd realize I was saying that it simply does not matter what anyone posts on a chat forum with ~20 regular posters and ~20 irregular posters and (probably) even fewer lurkers.

It used to be that at TOS, you might lurk around over at LP to pick up good stories or to have a wider variety of stories than RimJob would allow on TOS. I don't think LF has any comparable number of lurkers coming here from TOS. And only a handful of posters are registered and posting on both forums.

LF is a little South Pacific island, full of cannibals.     : )

"I was saying that it simply does not matter what anyone posts"

I still expect people to tell the truth.

I still expect people to tell the truth.

You expect too much of him.

misterwhite: "I still expect people to tell the truth."
Roscoe: "You expect too much of him."

You two crack me up most when you're trying to moralize from the rancid swamps of your own hypocrisy.

How's that for truthfulness?

How's that for truthfulness?

Emotional dishonest posturing.

"trying to moralize from the rancid swamps of your own hypocrisy ..."

Doesn't matter. Whether it's Trump or the kinds of supporters he draws, the offensiveness to the average WI GOP voter and to GOP voters in general is already established. You don't get to just wish it away.

Nor do you get to wish away the unpopularity of Ted Cruz, or of the Republican Establishment.

The problem that you guys on the right are going to run into no matter what is the fact that the Left unites the poor and the minorities, and poor people blame YOUR policies, not the Democrats', for having destroyed their jobs, while Hispanics and blacks blame YOU for discrimination against them.

So let's be generous and accept your argument that Trump, with all of his crossover voters, is too unpopular to win. That means, in a nutshell, that the Democrats will win.

So once you've played all of the inside baseball on the Republican side, you still end up with the intractable problem that the only candidate you have who has a real chance of beating the Democrats in November is Trump.

LF is a little South Pacific island, full of cannibals. : )

And one Catholic guardian angel, don't forget.

If The RNC relies on formal rules to take this from Trump, he will disrupt the convention.

If situations were reversed and Cruz had the larger plurality, you'd be arguing the opposite. Because you're for Your Guy and against that Other Guy.

Actually, that's not true at all. I was for Cruz long before Trump ever announced his candidacy. I have become a bit disgusted with Cruz's Clinton-like campaign the last few weeks, though.

I'm just saying that Trump has a large and very loyal following who won't be buffaloed aside, and there's nothing the RNC can do to stop it. They better come up with some way to appease Trump if his plurality of delegates going in is ignored.

But again, IDM who the REPs wind up nominating they are toast in Nov.

In a vacuum, I would agree. However, the Dems need to win with somebody.

Can an avowed socialist win?

Can anyone assure that Hillary will survive and win after the FBI report is made?

The Dem party is almost as fractured as the Rep party. This is the wackiest election season I have ever seen.

I don't see where you get that at all.

Demographics. Kasich was liked but few would waste a vote on a walking dead campaign.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_kasich_vs_clinton-5846.html

Wisconsin: Kasich vs. Clinton

RCP Average	3/24 - 4/3	--	--	50.0	38.5	Kasich +11.5

Emerson	3/30 - 4/3	1198 LV	2.8	52	38	Kasich +14

Marquette	3/24 - 3/28	1405 RV	3.3	48	39	Kasich +9

Nor do you get to wish away the unpopularity of Ted Cruz, or of the Republican Establishment.

I guess you have never noticed how the least unpopular becomes the most popular by default?

"So once you've played all of the inside baseball on the Republican side, you still end up with the intractable problem that the only candidate you have who has a real chance of beating the Democrats in November is Trump."

Yep. Yet all we hear is "Not Trump. Not Trump".

Then who? Cruz? If the people want Cruz, then let the people select Cruz. So far they haven't. If they haven't by now, why would they later?

And the reasons given for not liking Trump are flat-out ludicrous. Jonah Goldberg (NRO) had a recent article in USA Today where he blasted Trump because Trump said he wants America to win again. Because, you see, winning is a bad thing if you win by "overturning long-held notions of ideological orthodoxy".

He then cites Barry Goldwater as a hero, because despite the fact he lost in a landslide he stood for a principle.

Idiot.

I guess you have never noticed how the least unpopular becomes the most popular by default?

No, I've never noticed that to be true. Kasich is the least unpopular. Trump is still the most popular.

In a vacuum, I would agree. However, the Dems need to win with somebody.

Can an avowed socialist win?

Yes. I am not saying Bernie will win,but I am saying it is entirely possible.

Let's look at some facts.

1: The DNC has played at being socialist/communist ever since the 1930's,but in reality it was a promise of socialism/communism for the poor,not them. Other than King Franklin and his wife/cousin,they never meant it.

2: A large part,maybe even the majority by now,of the Dim base are true-believer socialists/communists that vote Dim because they lust after all the "free stuff" they think they can get without having to work for it.

3: Bubbette! may be the most unpopular Dim candidate with Dims in the history of the party. Her base is the whacked out whymen bunch,and the welfare blacks. Everybody else other than people who earn their living from the Dim Party pretty much hates and mistrusts her and are only going to vote on her because she has the "right" letter from the alphabet behind her name.

4:Along comes a actual lifelong socialist to run against her that is a true-believer in socialism,and who means every damnfool thing he says.

5: There are tens of millions of damnfool Dims registered to vote.

Yeah,it could happen,and truth to tell,America would be better off with Bernie in the WH than with Bubbette! BECAUSE he is sincere and the truth is none of the power people in the background want socialism. Bernie might get the nomination and he might even get the WH,but he is NOT going to get the behind the scenes cooperation that Bubbette! will get because he most likely won't be willing to play the game where the WH and the bill sponsors skim off most of the money.

In other words,about all Bernie can accomplish in the WH is to expose the fraud and hypocrisy that is what defines the Dim Party.

If it's Bernie versus Cruz, or Jeb or Rubio or Ryan - or any other Republican but Trump - a very large number of Trump supporters (including me) will go vote for Sanders for just that reason.

It is TRUMP that the new throng of Trump supporters are voting for, not the Republican Party.

Take Trump and his voters out of the party, and the Republicans are a minoritarian, aging white rump of cranks, gun nuts, bitter-ender Reaganites, Cold Warriors, Israel Firsters and snake-handling nuts.

The Republicans did not win Congress. Obama lost Congress. But the Republicans didn't stop Obama, and the country is doing poorly mainly for the folks voting for Trump. THOSE folks are NOT going to vote Republican except for Trump.

Oust Trump, and see Sanders win on the Democrat side, and you'll have the implementation of full-on democratic socialism, European style, which will be pretty popular, because it's a damn sight better for the bottom 47% than what we've got now.

The Republicans are used to falling back on delaying tactics, but that is because they have not fully comprehended that the only reason they were able to do that under Carter and Clinton and Obama is because of Republican control of the Supreme Court.

If a Democrat wins, the DEMOCRATS will control the Supreme Court for the first time since Nixon, and that means a very swift rubber stamp of Democrat ideology and structure.

The limits of Executive Orders is untested. A Democrat Supreme Court will give a Democrat President practically unlimited discretion. Republicans won't be able to delay things as they have, because the President will simply order the executive departments to take action, and the Supreme Court will uphold the President.

Then Congress will have one expedient: government shutdown - and government shutdown destroys the Republicans every time they try it, ultimately because rich Republican donors are the primary beneficiaries of government contract payments.

I am not saying Bernie will win,but I am saying it is entirely possible.

I was only trying to say that Dems are not a lock and Reps are not certain toast in Nov.

Bernie could pick up Elizabeth Warren for VP and make a formidable far left liberal ticket. As do you, I believe Bernie is sincere even if I personally disagree with much of what he says.

If the Dems nominate Hillary, lots of Bernie supporters will stay home in November.

If the Reps nominate anyone but Trump or Cruz, they may generate not only a stay home movement, but a third party revolt.

In the meantime, the GOPe is effecting the destruction of Trump and Cruz as winning candidates in the general. The main mission of the GOPe is to stop Trump and Cruz. If they can insert a GOPe stooge, so much the better, but that is not essential.

At this point, it appears both parties will put up severely damaged candidates.