Three days ago the alleged finalists were Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, but that was before Trump began interviewing shortlisters. And the interview with Raymond Kethledge reportedly went very, very well.
If anyones well positioned to know that the winds have changed in the West Wing, its a Fox News reporter. And if anythings likely to boost a shortlister overnight, its making a good face-to-face impression on Trump. A more ideological president might look past that sort of thing to more nuts-and-bolts concerns about the nominees jurisprudence, but with Trump personal chemistry is key. A White House official involved in vetting the nominees told Axios that Trumps likely to tilt towards who he feels most comfortable with in a personal setting, which would explain Kethledges stock rising. Although in fairness to POTUS, its not like Kethledge is any weaker ideologically than the competition. If Trump can get someone whom he likes personally and whom righties will like on the bench, so much the better. An interesting footnote via Politico: Apparently Ted Cruz is bearish on Kavanaugh.
Cruz can stump for Lee all he wants but Lees not going to be the nominee and may not even be in serious contention. Whats his beef with Kavanaugh, though? It must be more than that one ObamaCare ruling, which Kavanaugh defenders like Ed Whelan have argued has been misunderstood. Whats strange about Cruzs opposition is that he and Kavanaugh have had parallel careers to some extent. Theyre roughly the same age (Kavanaughs a few years older), both Ivy League law grads, both Supreme Court clerks, both worked on the Florida recount in 2000, both served in the Bush administration in Dubyas first term. Theyve come out of the same conservative professional legal culture and that culture is very high on Kavanaugh. If anything, youd think Cruz would be out in front recommending him as the next best choice after Lee. Is there history between the two that explains his chilliness? As for Barretts stock dipping, maybe her interview with Trump didnt go as well as Kethledges did. Possibly Trump is worried that Barretts reputation, fair or not, as a pro-life warrior will end up spooking Collins and Murkowski and hell be dealt an embarrassing defeat in confirmation. Or maybe hes calculating that hell get to appoint Ginsburgs successor and wants to save a woman nominee for that spot, knowing that public pressure to fill Ginsburgs seat with a female will be particularly intense. Its unlike him to pass on a chance to instigate a nationwide culture-war street fight, which is what nominating Barrett would do. But if anything could make that fight more vicious, waiting to nominate Barrett as a replacement for the lefts feminist hero would do it. It would be a supreme act of clawing back cultural territory from the other side, practically a provocation. Maybe hell announce The Purge on the same day and let Americans really have it out for a day or two. Or maybe Barretts stock hasnt dipped. Per WaPo, shes one of three finalists, not two:
Id wager on Kethledge. If its true that people like Cruz are warning Trump about Kavanaugh, Trumps not going to roll the dice on him. The one thing hes done as president thats united the right entirely was appoint Neil Gorsuch; naturally he wants another nominee in that mold, not someone whos going to attract ominous grumbles from movement conservatives from the start and maybe end up knifing conservatives on a major case while on the bench. Kethledge seems to be a safer pick despite a last-minute effort by some border hawks to paint him as soft on immigration. Theres a piece answering that charge at NRO today thats worth your while. One last thing per Axios: Although Trump has said hell announce the nominee on Monday, sources say they wouldnt be surprised if he changed his mind and broke the news early once hes settled on someone. Dont wander too far from a computer or TV over the next few days. |
Poster Comment:
Ted Cruz doesn't want Kavanagh but hasn't threatened to vote him down (yet). Rand Paul is threatening to vote against Kavanagh over his actions during the Bush years. And Barrett is probably too pro-life to get past Collins/Murkowski.
It looks like Kethledge at this point. And he has most of the personal qualities that Gorsuch has (hunter, fisherman, Michigander) and is considered to have a more polished style in Senate hearings and Kethledge is considered more appealing than Gorsuch to people who know them both. And that personal style factor means a lot with Trump. Kethledge is a better bet to sail through Senate hearings flawlessly than either Barrett or Kavanagh.
#5: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#3)
Is there more than one Kethledge?
I think there's a lot more dirt on Kavanagh. And I think Barrett just isn't that strong personally, as we saw in her confrontation with Feinswine. And she has very little track record, very little time as a senior judge.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-05 15:41:58 Reply Private Reply
#6: Tooconservative To: hondo68 (#2)
He would be a good pick but doesn't have quite the legal pedigree or court record that Trump is looking for. Neither does Barrett but she is a Womyn and they had to have a least one Womyn among the finalists.
Kethledge is a lifelong Michigander. Michigan will like it if one of their own native judges is put on the Court. So Kethledge makes sense for Trump politically too. You can't argue the same for the other nominees except for Hardiman (born in MA but gone native in PA, another vital EC state for Trump).
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-05 15:45:28 Reply Private Reply
#7: Vicomte13 To: Tooconservative (#6)
Once Ruthie flies back off to Notre Dames rafters fill her vacancy with a Michigoose, and all will be splendid.
Vicomte13 posted on 2018-07-05 16:06:04 Reply Private Reply
#8: Tooconservative To: Vicomte13 (#7)
His main shortcoming with Trump is the lack of a Harvard or Yale legal pedigree.
OTOH, every graduate of the University of Michigan -- and especially its lawyers -- will be gratified if Trump picks a UM jurist for the Court.
And that isn't bad for Trump in 2020.
Kethledge does have a nice record of majority opinions and dissents. The Federalist Society likes him and the Dems seem to have no dirt to find on him because he has lived so quietly. And he does write all of his own opinions, a rarity nowadays. He likes to write even more than Scalia did. He is still the main feeder judge of clerks to the Court because he has been so diligent in instilling the most desired qualities in his law clerks. No one will be able to say he is undeserving of his reputation as a jurist and a leading federal judge.
I really think it is going to be Kethledge. Even without the Harvard/Yale pedigree.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-05 18:23:54 Reply Private Reply
#9: Vicomte13 To: Tooconservative (#8)
Vicomte13 posted on 2018-07-05 20:19:04 Reply Private Reply
#10: nolu chan To: misterwhite, Tooconservative (#3)
What is the "open borders" appellation based upon?
https://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/judge-kethledge-immigration-laws-faithful-application/
nolu chan posted on 2018-07-05 22:47:43 Reply Private Reply
#11: nolu chan To: Tooconservative (#8)
Kethledge has the taxi driver pedigree and Trump is doing the selecting. He does not appear to be subject to much objection.
nolu chan posted on 2018-07-05 22:51:58 Reply Private Reply
#12: Tooconservative To: nolu chan (#10)
My impression as well.
I think you're that's Hardiman. And I think his family owned a small taxi company at the time. I do also like Hardiman and some people would say he has more of an originalist track record than Kethledge does.
Hardiman was the runner-up to Gorsuch so I've been surprised that he hasn't been featured more prominently in the rumors about filling the Kennedy vacancy. He's not too old and he has a good record with very little to cause a confirmation fight.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-05 23:29:32 Reply Private Reply
#13: misterwhite To: nolu chan (#10)
Right. As did the U.S. Supreme Court in Roe v Wade when they faithfully interpreted and applied the right to privacy they found in a penumbra of an emanation.
It was there. They said it was there. They saw it. And they faithfully interpreted and applied it.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-06 09:46:15 Reply Private Reply
#14: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#12)
Me too. Maybe he's now "old news".
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-06 09:47:13 Reply Private Reply
#15: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#14)
Trump loves the big surprise on episodes of SCOTUS Apprentice. So he could be faking us out with the List Of Three, only to pick Hardiman.
I would overall prefer Hardiman to Kethledge, more track record, more originalist. And Hardiman doesn't have Kavanagh's Bush/Starr connection or Barrett's inexperience and unwise remarks about Roe.
I'm a little concerned that Kethledge is so unknown on some issues that he could be a new Kennedy or Souter. Hardiman is a lot better known.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 10:02:59 Reply Private Reply
#16: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#15)
True. He could have decided on Hardiman the day Kennedy quit, but threw out some names to test the reactions from the public. If everyone insisted he appoint one of them, he could always change his mind.
Or he could appoint Me Merrick Garland Merrick Garland -- he'd get Chuck Schumer's support.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-06 10:45:36 Reply Private Reply
#17: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#15)
Why is it that conservative Republicans end up getting blindsided by these appointments but never liberal Democrats?
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-06 10:48:09 Reply Private Reply
#18: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#17)
Because the judiciary are by default statists. And sooner or later they give in to the thrill.
Every justice on the Court will always be more liberal than advertised, when push comes to shove. Like Roberts saving OdingaCare.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 11:22:56 Reply Private Reply
#19: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#16)
You know he's reveling in all the attention and the buildup to the Big Event.
WaPo: "I think I have it down to four people, and I think of the four people, I have it down to three or two. I think theyre all outstanding, Trump told reporters Thursday en route to Montana, declining to name the finalists. I dont want to say the four. But I have it down to four. Ill have a decision made in my mind by Sunday. Well announce it on Monday.
So he has it down to two. Or three. Or four. Maybe.
Donald is a bit of showman. But he's having lots of fun, no doubt.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 11:36:00 Reply Private Reply
#20: nolu chan To: Tooconservative (#12)
My bad. Good catch.
nolu chan posted on 2018-07-06 12:13:36 Reply Private Reply
#21: nolu chan To: misterwhite (#13)
What is the "open borders" appellation based upon?
You did not address, much less answer, the question. What did he say about open borders?
nolu chan posted on 2018-07-06 12:15:59 Reply Private Reply
#22: nolu chan To: Tooconservative (#19)
He is also listening to and evaluating the early criticisms.
nolu chan posted on 2018-07-06 12:18:03 Reply Private Reply
#23: Tooconservative To: nolu chan (#22)
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 12:41:50 Reply Private Reply
#24: nolu chan To: Tooconservative (#23)
I can't wait for the Senate dems questioning the nominee and the invocation of the Ginsburg rule.
nolu chan posted on 2018-07-06 12:45:24 Reply Private Reply
#25: misterwhite To: nolu chan (#21)
In Patel v. USCIS, 732 F.3d 633, 2013, Kethledge wrote an opinion that expressly rejected the governments contention that an American immigration laws purpose is to protect American workers and benefit American businesses.
In Van Don Nguyen v. Holder, 571 F.3d 524, 2009, Kethledge reversed a deportation order of a criminal alien who had lied about a drug conviction and been convicted of grand theft auto -- which Kethledge argued was not an aggravated felony.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-06 13:01:58 Reply Private Reply
#26: Hondo68 To: misterwhite, Ed Schultz terminated, knew too much, nolu chan (#25)
Ed Schultz mysteriously dies at 64...
He knew too much.
Bender: Ed Schultz had remarkable political instincts
"Heart problems, they say. I don't think so."Hondo68 posted on 2018-07-06 13:29:17 Reply Private Reply
#27: Tooconservative To: misterwhite, nolu chan (#25)
He has been the fair-haired boy of the Beltway conservative legal establishment since he graduated from law school. The Senate GOP will likely be willing to fight to confirm him.
Kethledge is a very good writer. But supposedly Kavanagh has him beat with some people describing his opinions as operatic. That's high literary praise for legal writing and the kind of thing that routinely described Scalia's writing. He's also very fast at debate and could push oral arguments in a certain direction. They say he is impressive in person.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 13:37:34 Reply Private Reply
#28: Tooconservative To: hondo68 (#26)
So Judge Kavanagh murdered Vince Foster and then killed Ed Schultz to keep him quiet?
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 13:38:42 Reply Private Reply
#29: Hondo68 To: Tooconservative, Ginsburg, Sotomayer, likely to drop dead soon (#28)
He covered up for the Clinton/Bush D&R crime syndicate. He had to whack Ed Schultz to make it through the confirmation process and replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg on SCOTUS.
Orders from Javanka. Both Ginsburg and Sotomayer are likely to drop dead at any moment, so their replacements are being installed preemptively whenever possible.
Hondo68 posted on 2018-07-06 13:49:27 Reply Private Reply
#30: Tooconservative To: All, nolu chan, misterwhite, hondo68 (#27)
Politico:
Unlike many people, hes not a D.C. insider, said Kethledge pal Christopher Yoo, a University of Pennsylvania Law School professor. Kethledge and Yoo shared an office when they clerked for retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy from 1997 to 1998. He doesnt belong to the kind of circles of power that other former clerks are often drawn to. Whats quite telling is his love of Michigan, his love of outdoors. One of the highest compliments he can give about a person is they arent afraid to drink beer straight out of the bottle.
Got that? He actually knows a few people who drink beer from bottles! What a redneck judge! What a man of the people! If confirmed, he'd probably show up at the Court wearing a coonskin cap, by crackey.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 14:22:40 Reply Private Reply
#31: Hondo68 To: Tooconservative, Willettized (#30)
A few shots of this stuff and those errant justices will be seeing things Justice Willett's way!
Hondo68 posted on 2018-07-06 15:57:57 Reply Private Reply
#32: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#30)
I had one.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-06 18:27:41 Reply Private Reply
#33: nolu chan To: misterwhite, Tooconservative, hondo68 (#25)
This is obviously derived from a recent screed by Ann Coulter. It would help if those actively campaigning for Brett Kavanaugh would just gather in the park by the White House and hold an official political campaign rally for Brett Kavanaugh, rather than sniping at everybody else.
This appears to channel Ann Coulter via The Conservative Treehouse.
http://theconservativecartel.com/ann-coulter-slams-open-borders-zealots-on-trumps-scotus-shortlist-backs-kavanaugh/
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1014595076947955713
https://www.facebook.com/OfficialAnnCoulter/posts/1597644290345379
https://twitter.com/Harvardlash/status/1014570376230301696
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Unfortunately, this is most certainly intended for an audience that has not, and will not, bother to reach out and find the court opinions and read them.
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1014596302502539266
In Nguyen, the Opinion of the Court was written by Circuit Judge Merritt, not Circuit Judge Kethledge.
The criminal alien was a permanent resident whose crime had been committed 18 years previously. At issue was whether a necessary predicate for an order of deportation existed. The unanimous three-judge panel concluded it did not. Judge Kethledge joined the opinion of Judge Merritt. Judge Griffin filed a concurring opinion only disagreeing with obiter dicta.
At 1-2:
At 2-3:
Nguyen was convicted in 1990, under California state law, of the crime of Grand Theft.
At 6:
At 7-11:
https://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/judge-kethledge-immigration-laws-faithful-application/
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http://theconservativecartel.com/ann-coulter-slams-open-borders-zealots-on-trumps-scotus-shortlist-backs-kavanaugh/
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1014595076947955713
The Opinion addressed and answered the question of whether it was proper for the District Court to issue a dismissal for lack of prudential standing. The 6th Circuit, opinion by Judge Kethledge, found that dismissal for lack of prudential standing was reversible error.
It ends with the court stating, "Finally, having determined that Patel had both prudential and constitutional standing in this case, we decline to go further and address the merits of his claim."
Rightly or wrongly decided, what it decided was prudential standing.
At 1-2:
At 3-5:
At 7:
At 7-8:
At 8-9:
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UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT
Match-E-Be-Nash-She-Wish Band of Pottawatomi Indians v. Patchak et al., 567 U.S. 209 (2012), (8-1) Kagan, J., delivered the opinion of the Court, in which Roberts, C. J., and Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, Ginsburg, Breyer, and Alito, JJ., joined. Sotomayor, J., filed a dissenting opinion, post, p. 228.
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https://www.nationalreview.com/bench-memos/judge-kethledge-immigration-laws-faithful-application/
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
https://www.scribd.com/document/383353230/Van-Don-Nguyen-v-Holder-571-F3d-524-6th-Cir-2009
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https://www.scribd.com/document/383353300/Patel-v-USCIS-732-F-3d-633-6th-Cir-11-Oct-2013
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https://www.scribd.com/document/383359393/Match-E-Be-Nash-She-Wish-Band-of-Pottawatomi-Indians-v-Patchak-et-al-567-US-209-2012
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
nolu chan posted on 2018-07-06 19:06:43 Reply Private Reply
#34: Tooconservative To: nolu chan (#33)
Instead, she's with the Beltway establishment, sticking knives in Kethledge to promote the Swamp's favorite, Kavanagh.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 20:55:42 Reply Private Reply
#35: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#32)
But of course you did.
When I was younger, we killed thousands of those destructive little bastards. Never once wanted to wear one on my head. My older brother made decent money at times selling their dead bodies to local fur buyers. Sometimes entire pickup loads of them.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 21:01:35 Reply Private Reply
#36: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#35)
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-06 22:20:29 Reply Private Reply
#37: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#36)
King of the wild frontier, my shiny white hiney.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-06 23:05:22 Reply Private Reply
#38: GrandIsland To: Tooconservative (#35)
GrandIsland posted on 2018-07-06 23:51:31 Reply Private Reply
#39: Tooconservative To: GrandIsland (#38)
They are extremely destructive and cunning. Hard to get rid of without just killing every last one of them.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-07 00:03:31 Reply Private Reply
#40: misterwhite To: GrandIsland (#38)
I sense a double meaning here.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-07 09:09:08 Reply Private Reply
#41: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#35)
Aha. Now I get it. You're upset with yourself that you didn't have the business savvy to sell the skins to Disney.
"At its peak, the frenzy started by Parker's Davy Crockett character helped sell 5,000 coonskin caps a day, causing the price of raccoon fur to jump from 25 cents a pound to $8."
And those are 1955 prices.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-07 09:31:05 Reply Private Reply
#42: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#41)
Racoon fur was pretty decent at other times. Late Seventies, a few years in the Eighties. Not sure about since then.
I wasn't sure that most of those years that people hunting them with spotlights/flashlights and .22 rifles were making much money by the time you paid for gas to bomb around in a pickup. Some years, a kid could make some decent money that way. Most years, not much.
It was simpler for me. I just wanted those coons dead. Also, skunks and porcupines and badgers and, of course, coyotes. All foul creatures IMO.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-07 10:04:02 Reply Private Reply
#43: Tooconservative To: All, misterwhite, GrandIsland (#42)
Pretty much, I hate all the woodland rodent species and would shoot them on sight if a gun was handy. I'm not even that fond of beavers, very destructive to trees in their vicinity. But I didn't shoot beavers.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-07 10:12:12 Reply Private Reply
#44: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#42)
Here on the farm we have raccoon, skunk, possum, fox and lots of squirrels. Target rich environment (not the squirrels -- the Goldens love to chase them).
(That would be Doug and Nancy Golden who live next door.)
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-07 10:21:02 Reply Private Reply
#45: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#43)
Perhaps a list of animals you do like would be shorter.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-07 10:23:16 Reply Private Reply
#46: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#44)
A squirrel is rarely worth a .22 shell.
Much shorter.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-07 10:38:02 Reply Private Reply
#47: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#46)
They would be if you made hats out of them.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-07 11:09:30 Reply Private Reply
#48: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#47)
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-07 11:15:03 Reply Private Reply
#49: GrandIsland To: misterwhite (#40)
i.e. POTATO.
lol
GrandIsland posted on 2018-07-07 15:09:13 Reply Private Reply
#50: GrandIsland To: Tooconservative (#39)
GrandIsland posted on 2018-07-07 15:11:59 Reply Private Reply
#51: Tooconservative To: GrandIsland (#50)
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-07 17:11:11 Reply Private Reply
#52: misterwhite To: GrandIsland (#50)
Ain't that the truth.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-07 20:45:07 Reply Private Reply
#53: misterwhite To: Tooconservative (#48)
It got me curious. I found a website (Chichester, Inc) that sells squirrel pelts -- $20 for Red Canadian Pine Squirrel:#1 Grade. $31.99 for American Gray Squirrel.
This could be your opportunity to sell the critters you slaughter by the thousands.
misterwhite posted on 2018-07-07 20:52:10 Reply Private Reply
#54: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#53)
No, I don't shoot them like I used to. Their numbers locally declined rather sharply over the years.
Tooconservative posted on 2018-07-08 01:37:26 Reply Private Reply