Woo Hoo! Crater it! Burn it all down!

Nothing so dramatic, I'm afraid. We're seeing a slow steady hemorrhaging.

A lot of people who had been watching out of habit and because that is what people talk about are reconsidering spending 4 hours at a time watching games without a lot of action. Saturday, Sunday afternoon, Monday night, Thursday night, it's way overdone.

I do think at some point this winter, people get bored with themselves and they start quietly tuning back in. And I think the NFL is counting on that happening.

If they just keep dangling that cheese, the mice will return to the maze. They are probably right.

OTOH, if they lose Budweiser as sponsor, that could hit their revenues hard enough to make difference. And the networks would start looking for more profitable programming to displace the Thursday night games and maybe one or more of the weekend slots.

OTOH, if they lose Budweiser as sponsor, that could hit their revenues hard enough to make difference.

Go Bud, go! Trample the NFL under those Clydesdale hooves!

Just as pols or companies or event organizers or merchants try to create a bandwagon effect to convince people to take part, to be part of the popular crowd or just not wanting to feel left out of The Next Big Thing and we call this a bandwagon effect, there can be such a thing as a reverse-bandwagon, where something like the NFL that has benefited from a bandwagon effect for many years and then starts to lose some of those loyal viewers/fans. At a certain point with people drifting away, the social capital of the NFL diminishes until that trickle of defecting fans turns into a flood.

We aren't there yet. But the trend is very dismal for the NFL. Even if they pull out of their nosedive, they face reduced revenues and other problems.

We aren't there yet. But the trend is very dismal for the NFL.

http://nbc4i.com/2017/10/04/nfl-ratings-down-on-weekend-of-boycott/

NFL ratings down on weekend of boycott

NBC4i.com
By Associated Press
Published: October 4, 2017, 6:25 am

[excerpt]

The Nielsen company said Tuesday the weekend’s nationally televised games averaged 13.8 million viewers, down from 14.8 million the week before. Opening week registered 16.3 million viewers and the second week had 15.8 million.

= = = = = = = = = =

Week 01. 16.3 million ±0.0m, % change (cumulative fm Week 1)
Week 02. 15.8 million -0.5m, minus 3.0%
Week 03. 14.8 million -1.0m, minus 9.2%
Week 04. 13.8 million -1.0m, minus 15.3%

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Only a what if, but if the current trend continued....

projected continuing trend to lose 1m per week

Week 05. 12.8 million - 1.0m, minus 21.5%
Week 06. 11.8 million - 1.0m, minus 27.6%

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

The decline in viewers week by week, using Week 1 as the baseline, indicates a 15.3% cumulative decline since Week 1. A half million viewers were lost on Week 2, a million more on week 3, and yet another million on week 4, for a total of 2.5 million viewers lost in three weeks, and with a downward trendline.

They can't lose a million per week forever, but they have incurred significant loss, and network tv series are just starting back up, along with NHL ice hockey and NBA basketball.

Next week, bye weeks kick in and there are two less NFL games.

Also, early season ratings indicate the two highest rated series on tv are The Big Bang Theory and spinoff Young Sheldon. They had a viewership of 17.2m and 17.7 million. Both move to Thursday night. TNF is going to have some competition.

Also, early season ratings indicate the two highest rated series on tv are The Big Bang Theory and spinoff Young Sheldon.

That alone is pretty disturbing. BBT got tired and formulaic after 3-4 years. Still, no doubt it is popular, here and overseas.

You have to consider the NFL hardcores. At what point do they desert the NFL? Is is when the playas decide to burn a flag while the anthem is playing? You'd probably not faze something like 5-10M hardcore NFL fans with that.

Trying to think like the NFL owners and the networks, they have to be considering what is their base hardcore audience. They must think it is at least 12M. Still a major audience but much diminished from the height of its power.

Even so, their current business model, profits from broadcast, merchandise, endorsements, NFL sponsors, tickets have to look rather different now from what they were a year or two back.

Otherwise, TV is useless.

I get dragged into watching "Caso Cerrado" because my wife likes it, and Dr. Phil, and the various Simon Cowell Talent Show vehicles. But that's because it's on for them, not because I want to watch it. Home alone, I never turn it on. Haven't since 1981.

I do think at some point this winter, people get bored with themselves and they start quietly tuning back in.

It is simply not possible for me to become bored enough to want to waste any time watching inarticulate, below-avg-intelligence, adult mouthbreather men play kids' games, and it never has been.

Lack of interest in this crap goes back to my early teen years, when I noticed that it was a complete, boring waste of time. The only possible upside is the snacks, but I can get those to go.

Lack of interest in this crap goes back to my early teen years, when I noticed that it was a complete, boring waste of time.

I understand the impulse but that just means you're irrelevant to the NFL if you're not a regular fan, buying tickets and merchandise and upping their ratings.

To measure whether the NFL is being hurt, you have to find if hardcore fans stopped watching or if some people decide maybe one game a week is all they want instead of 2-3.

I'm sure the NFL and the networks are trying to understand who and what their audience is, week by week. There is big money at stake.

BBT got tired and formulaic after 3-4 years. Still, no doubt it is popular, here and overseas.

I don't watch either one. I find laugh tracks irritating. But by deliberately moving two series with 17m viewers each straight up against NFL football, CBS is throwing down against the NFL. Thursday Night Football is an NFL weak link. It will be interesting to see what happens.

You have to consider the NFL hardcores.

There are no doubt millions of them. Also to be considered are hard core flag wavers. There are millions of them too.

Trying to think like the NFL owners and the networks, they have to be considering what is their base hardcore audience. They must think it is at least 12M. Still a major audience but much diminished from the height of its power.

A big, big problem is that diminished revenue is not offset by comparable diminished expenses. Very costly contracts do not diminish automatically in response.

A big, big problem is that diminished revenue is not offset by comparable diminished expenses. Very costly contracts do not diminish automatically in response.

They will.

If NFL revenues stay down, some of these playas simply won't get as good a contract renewal. They might even join Kaepernick as unemployable but with a similar unemployment insurance deal like he has for $12M even if he doesn't play at all.

Kaep's deal isn't all that bad. But it is probably for only one year. Those had to be some very very high premiums he paid.

HotAir: NFL star: “It’s funny to see a female talk about routes”

He laughed in their faces. Now the NFL has condemned him, Dannen Yogurt dropped him as an endorser (he's probably a rapist), and the Womyn Reporterette has been investigated and found admitting she laughed at her dad making racist jokes about Navajo while driving through their territories about 5 years back.

If NFL revenues stay down, some of these playas simply won't get as good a contract renewal.

BTW, you did notice this one about all the women pissed at Cam Newton

Yeah, I thought it was the first time ever that a woman had asked him about routes, and he gave a genuine expression of his surprise and finding it humorous. To Cam it may have sounded like Mona Lisa Vito testifying to her general automotive knowledge.

I have been watching the ESPN listings for attendance. I recall the days when ticket demand exceeded supply, and home games not sold out were blacked out on local tv channels. The Fed government twisted the arm of the NFL and forced it to lift its blackout policy. Most games remained sold out until recently.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Football_League_television_blackout_policies

From 1973 through 2014, the NFL maintained a blackout policy that states that a home game cannot be televised in the team's local market if all tickets are not sold out 72 hours prior to its start time. This makes the NFL the only major professional sports league in the US that requires teams to sell out tickets in order to broadcast a game on television locally. Although nationally-televised games in the other leagues are often blacked out on the national networks on which the game is airing in the local markets of the participating teams, they can still be seen on the local broadcast TV station or regional sports network that normally holds their local/regional broadcast rights. The league blackout policy has been suspended on a year-to-year basis since 2015.

[...]

Prior to 1973, all games were blacked out in the home city of origin and on any TV stations located within 75 miles of the team's home city, regardless of whether they were sold out. This policy, dating back to the NFL's emerging television years, resulted in home-city blackouts even during sold-out regular-season games and championship games. For instance, the 1958 "Greatest Game Ever Played" between the Baltimore Colts and New York Giants was unavailable to viewers in the New York City market despite the sellout at Yankee Stadium (many fans rented hotel rooms or visited friends in areas of Connecticut or Pennsylvania where signals of TV stations carrying the game were available to watch the game on television, a practice that continued for Giants games through 1972).

Similarly, all Super Bowl games prior to Super Bowl VII in January 1973 were not televised in the host city's market.

The policy was in effect when, in 1972, the Washington Redskins made the playoffs for only the second time in 27 seasons. Because all home games were blacked-out, politicians – including President Richard Nixon, a devout football fan – were not able to watch their favorite team's home games. NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle refused to lift the blackout for the NFC Championship Game, despite a plea from United States Attorney General Richard Kleindienst. Kleindienst went on to suggest that the United States Congress re-evaluate the NFL's antitrust exemption.

Rozelle agreed to lift the blackout for Super Bowl VII on an "experimental basis", if the game sold-out ten or more days in advance. With the game a sellout, viewers in the Los Angeles area were able to see the NBC telecast of the game. Nonetheless, Congress intervened before the 1973 season anyway, passing Public Law 93-107, which eliminated the blackout of games in the home market so long as the game was sold out by 72 hours before game time. The league will sometimes change this deadline to 48 hours if there are only a few thousand tickets left to be sold; much more rarely, the NFL will occasionally reduce the deadline to 24 hours in special cases.

[...]

Until September 2014, the NFL blackout rules were sanctioned by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), which enforced rules requiring cable and satellite providers to not distribute any sports telecast that had been blacked out by a broadcast television station within their market of service. On September 9, 2014, USA Today published an editorial from FCC chairman Tom Wheeler, which stated that he was submitting a proposal to "get rid of the FCC's blackout rules once and for all", to be voted on by the agency's members on September 30 of that year, declaring such policies to be "obsolete". On September 30, 2014, the Commission voted unanimously to repeal the FCC's blackout rules. However, the removal of these rules are, to an extent, purely symbolic; the NFL can still enforce its blackout policies on a contractual basis with television networks, stations, and service providers – a process made feasible by the large amount of leverage the league places on its media partners.

Ultimately, no games would be blacked out at all during the 2014 season. On March 23, 2015, the NFL's owners voted to suspend the blackout rules for the 2015 NFL season, meaning that all games would be televised in their home markets, regardless of ticket sales. The suspension will continue into the 2016 season; commissioner Roger Goodell stated that the league needed to further investigate the impact of removing the blackout rules before such a change is made permament. While the league never explicitly stated such, the blackout suspension will continue into 2017.

What is not symbolic is that threats to the NFL anti-trust exemption persuades the NFL to sit, lay down, or roll over as Congress desires.

They blacked out home games not sold out for over forty years. Ticket demand exceeded supply and games sold out regularly.

With demand exceeding supply, they could lose some demand for tickets and it would not show up as empty seats at the stadiums. Half the games for week 4 failed to sell to capacity. The week 5 Pats @ Bucs Thursday game failed to sell to capacity.

The initial losses were hidden by different people buying the available tickets. Ticket demand has fallen to the point where games are not selling out. Further erosion of demand will directly result in more empty seats.

Week 4 - games with attendance under capacity

92% Bengals @Browns

95% Bills @ Falcons

94% Jags @ Jets

91% Lions @ Vikings

96% Panthers @ Pats

**% Eagles @ Chargers 25,374 (cap ~27K)

97% Giant @ Bucs

97% Redskins @ Chiefs

**% Saints @ Dolphins 84, 423 (Wembley cap 86,000 for Am. football)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Week 5 - games with attendance under capacity

98% Pats @ Bucs

What will be more telling is how much seats are being discounted in various cities, how low the price goes with scalpers, etc.

Of course they can sell out and make it a practice to do so, just to continue the confidence game of their huge popularity. Empty seats in those stadiums makes viewers at home think that stadium tickets aren't all that desirable. So they don't want empty seats visible on TV or on social media posts by fans as that is likely to cause a downward spiral in ticket prices and demand. Something like this could be building across the league and remain largely unnoticed.

Sports reporters may be largely compromised on reporting things like this as news as they may be inclined to protect the NFL as a sport industry and not write stuff that could harm it. Also, their access for interviews could be threatened by reporting such stories.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/todd-gurley-is-begging-los-angeles-fans-to-come-to-rams-home-games/

Todd Gurley is begging Los Angeles fans to come to Rams home games

The Rams RB sounds like he's feeling good about life after an MVP-worthy first four weeks

by Will Brinson
CBS Sports
Oct 3, 2017

The Los Angeles Rams are arguably the most surprising story of the first quarter of the NFL's season, jumping out to a 3-1 record and looking like an entirely different franchise from the lethargic team we saw in 2016. On Sunday, they went on the road and beat the Cowboys in Dallas, serving notice for their candidacy to surprise in the NFC this season.

Now they just need the fans of Los Angeles to show up to the games. Running back Todd Gurley, who is a viable MVP candidate through the first four weeks of the season, appeared on the "Rich Eisen Show" and literally begged the people of Los Angeles who are Rams fans to attend this weekend when they play the Seahawks.

"Please come to our games! Please come to our games!," Gurley said.

[snip]

Sorry dude. They are exercising their constitutional right to not associate.

If they show up to a packed stadium with tickets sold at full price, then maybe the anthem controversy doesn't have much impact, at least in L.A.

If they discount tickets or sell large blocs of tickets cheap to scalpers just to fill the stadium (to create a bandwagon effect), then they're in trouble. Or at least underperforming their previous potential in ticket/merchandise/broadcast profits.

It really is difficult to measure the net income streams of the NFL, its players, and its owners. You have to wait to see gross sales over a period of weeks.

This will be a good test of how deep an impact the anthem controversy will be. This is a team outperforming all expectations, a boon to ticket sales in the face of a looming (possible) winning season.

The Rams face problems additional to the protests. They are playing in a stadium built in 1923 and seating 93,607. I do not see them packing it any time soon, but maybe if they keep winning.

The Rams opened Week 1 with 60,128. That was 33,479 short.

Week 2 fell to 56,612. That was 36,695 short.

http://theramswire.usatoday.com/2017/09/27/nfl-los-angeles-rams-attendance-worst-2017/

The Rams still have a chance to turn this around and avoid the largest attendance drop-off in 25 years, but they’ll need to average 70,000 fans per game for the rest of the season, according to FiveThirtyEight. It’s doable, but don’t bet on it.

They are supposed to a new Jerry World like stadium in 2020.

The Chargers don't need too much to achieve a sellout. The StubHub only seats 27,167. They haven't filled it yet. In 2016, the LA Galaxy averaged 25,138 in the same stadium. The Seattle Sounders FC averaged 42,636 in their stadium where the Seahawks play. That's the left coast and soccer for ya.

Dang, an NFL team that can't fill a 27,000 seat stadium. They are struggling to outdraw the Major League Soccer team that plays in the same stadium. That is just pitiful.

You have to wonder if their owner is breaking even at this point.

" They are struggling to outdraw the Major League Soccer team that plays in the same stadium. That is just pitiful. "

I wonder if they are still proud that they kissed kaperdicks ass, and followed him down the drain?

"Oh, look, that guy put his hands under that other guy's ass and muttered something."
"Now the bent-over guy snaps that ball to that guy whose got his hands inside his end zone. Oh, the excitement."
"Now they're all running around in some crazy pattern to confuse each other. Could it be more exciting than this?"
"Now the ass-feeler tosses the ball to some nother guy and he's running down the field. I have such a raging boner!"
"We scored a touchdown! Yay! I need another bag of Cheetos."

Yeah, I don't think the NFL is too worried about whether you or I will return because we weren't their fans to begin with.

I really do wonder how many of the hardcore NFL fans will slowly return to the NFL, even if they're mad now and vowing never to go back. No doubt, some won't return but I still think most will. It's their scene. They socialize with the other NFL fetishists. It's a whole social scene for the hardcores, not just a few games they watch. It is part of the social fabric of their weekends.