Liberty's Flame

#1: BorisY To: ConservingFreedom (#0)

oh
yeah

... hellary

by
a
... landslide

... Bencrazi

destroyed
by
her
own
witch
craft
web
poison

Make
America
moth
balled
great
again

love
boris

BorisY posted on 2016-07-13 17:32:34 Reply Private Reply

#2: GrandIsland To: BorisY (#1)

Don't worry, the poll numbers aren't even close to accurate. Out of the THOUSANDS of people I know, about 15 will vote for the cunt. Everyone else is voting Trump. The polls don't reflect the Brexit like outcome that's coming this November.

I'm gonna laugh my ass off when the liberal left has that "what the fuck just happened" look on their MSM faces for about a month.

GrandIsland posted on 2016-07-13 17:38:06 Reply Private Reply

#3: misterwhite To: ConservingFreedom (#0)

"In September, he (Nate Silver) told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that Trump had a roughly 5-percent chance of beating his GOP rivals.

In November, he explained that Trump’s national following was about as negligible as the share of Americans who believe the Apollo moon landing was faked.

On Twitter, he compared Trump to the band Nickelback, which he described as being “[d]isliked by most, super popular with a few.”

misterwhite posted on 2016-07-13 17:45:17 Reply Private Reply

#4: ConservingFreedom To: GrandIsland (#2)

Out of the THOUSANDS of people I know, about 15 will vote for the cunt.

Birds of a feather flock together - proves nothing about the national vote.

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-07-13 17:49:25 Reply Private Reply

#5: ConservingFreedom To: misterwhite (#3)

"In September, he (Nate Silver) told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that Trump had a roughly 5-percent chance of beating his GOP rivals.
In November, he explained that Trump’s national following was about as negligible as the share of Americans who believe the Apollo moon landing was faked.
On Twitter, he compared Trump to the band Nickelback, which he described as being “[d]isliked by most, super popular with a few.”

And on May 18 he wrote "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump" - fivethirtyeight.com/featu...rewed-up-on-donald-trump/

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-07-13 17:52:27 Reply Private Reply

#6: tomder55 To: ConservingFreedom (#0)

rooting for a tie with Gary Johnson getting enough elector votes to prevent Evita and Trump from getting the requisite 270 electoral votes. Then it gets thrown into the House (12 Amendment )

tomder55 posted on 2016-07-13 19:02:15 Reply Private Reply

#7: jeremiad To: misterwhite (#3)

Nickleback plays good music. I guess most people now know what people in bands look like, I only listen to what they play. Except for Jennifer Nettles.............gotta get a rag, slobbering on the keyboard again......

jeremiad posted on 2016-07-13 19:08:25 Reply Private Reply

#8: BorisY To: Willie Green, yukon, roscoe, gatlin, harrowup, all alert canaries, canary island (#2)

Amerexit

all
of
this
black
lives
mattering
is
back
firing

Make
America
red
white
blue
again

love
boris

BorisY posted on 2016-07-13 19:27:39 Reply Private Reply

#9: misterwhite To: ConservingFreedom (#5)

"And on May 18 he wrote "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump"

When will he write, "How I Made Lame Excuses For My Emotion-Based Prediction In A Pathetic Attempt To Salvage My Credibility"?

misterwhite posted on 2016-07-13 20:39:26 Reply Private Reply

#10: misterwhite To: jeremiad (#7)

"Exercising rights is only radical to two people, Tyrants and Slaves. Which are YOU?"

I don't believe that exercising rights is radical -- unless exercising a right is used as justification to violate someone else's right.

misterwhite posted on 2016-07-14 08:21:07 Reply Private Reply

#11: ConservingFreedom To: misterwhite (#9)

When will he write, "How I Made Lame Excuses For My Emotion-Based Prediction In A Pathetic Attempt To Salvage My Credibility"?

In your book the following is a "lame excuse"? In mine it's a mea culpa.

"we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things."

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-07-14 12:23:07 Reply Private Reply

#12: ConservingFreedom To: All (#0)

Trump's chance of winning is up to 36.7% today - and 46% according to their "now-cast" ("we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today. As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.").

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-07-14 12:28:22 Reply Private Reply

#13: ConservingFreedom To: tomder55 (#6)

with Gary Johnson getting enough elector votes

FWIW, 538 puts the probability of Johnson getting any electoral votes at between 1.5% and 7.5% (depending on statistical model).

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-07-14 12:30:27 Reply Private Reply

#14: misterwhite To: ConservingFreedom (#11)

Had he said that at the time of his prediction, that would have been different.

Saying it now sounds like a lame excuse.

misterwhite posted on 2016-07-14 12:31:32 Reply Private Reply

#15: ConservingFreedom To: misterwhite (#14)

Had he said that at the time of his prediction, that would have been different.

That makes less than no sense ... if he'd realized at the time of his prediction that he was playing a pundit rather than doing statistics, he wouldn't have made the prediction.

Saying it now sounds like a lame excuse.

You seem to be confusing "explanation" with "excuse."

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-07-14 12:45:34 Reply Private Reply

#16: misterwhite To: ConservingFreedom (#15)

"That makes less than no sense ... if he'd realized at the time of his prediction that he was playing a pundit rather than doing statistics, he wouldn't have made the prediction."

He admitted his prediction was not based on a model. Meaning he knew at the time that he was playing a pundit. I'm saying he should have admitted that at the time.

"You seem to be confusing "explanation" with "excuse."

No. It's a lame excuse. We would never have heard this "explanation" had he been proven right.

misterwhite posted on 2016-07-14 13:03:09 Reply Private Reply

#17: ConservingFreedom To: misterwhite (#16)

It's a lame excuse. We would never have heard this "explanation" had he been proven right.

These two sentences bear no logical relationship to each other - much less the second proving the first.

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-07-14 16:02:46 Reply Private Reply

#18: misterwhite To: ConservingFreedom (#17)

"These two sentences bear no logical relationship to each other"

Weren't meant to.

misterwhite posted on 2016-07-14 17:53:34 Reply Private Reply

#19: Vicomte13 To: ConservingFreedom (#0)

How'd they do on predicting Brexit?

Vicomte13 posted on 2016-07-15 07:53:06 Reply Private Reply

#20: tomder55 To: ConservingFreedom (#13)

FWIW, 538 puts the probability of Johnson getting any electoral votes at between 1.5% and 7.5% (depending on statistical model).

yes I know there is little chance for that .Ross Perot did not get any. But this is a strange year. Just for fun ; if he took his home state of New Mexico and maybe an independent minded state like NH ......and Evita and Trump end up tied ,but under 270 electors ..... then all bets are off .

tomder55 posted on 2016-07-15 11:45:56 Reply Private Reply

#21: ConservingFreedom To: tomder55 (#20)

and Evita and Trump end up tied ,but under 270 electors ..... then all bets are off .

Would be a hoot. I just noticed that they have a probability for "Electoral College deadlock: no candidate gets 270 electoral votes": between 0.5% and 0.6%.

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-07-15 12:42:37 Reply Private Reply

#22: ConservingFreedom To: Vicomte13 (#19)

How'd they do on predicting Brexit?

They abstained: in a June 20 podcast (fivethirtyeight.com/featu...rendum-polls-are-a-mess/) on the methodological problems of UK referendum polling, Nate Silver said at the 39:13-remaining mark, "we're not trying to make a forecast of this ourselves".

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-07-15 13:03:13 Reply Private Reply

Source:	FiveThirtyEight
Published:	Jul 13, 2016
Author:	FiveThirtyEight
Post Date:	2016-07-13 17:08:23 by ConservingFreedom
Views:	5256

FiveThirtyEight gives Trump 1-in-3 chance