In 1964, Republican Barry Goldwater suffered a devastating landslide loss to LBJ. Aside from his home state of Arizona, Goldwater carried only five other states, all in the Deep South. Goldwater amassed only 52 electoral votes, to Johnson’s 486.
But even that paltry performance will look “extremely successful” compared to the thrashing that is in store for Donald Trump in November — if you believe Joe Scarborough. On today’s Morning Joe, after reviewing Trump’s disapproval numbers with various demographics, Scarborough said “Barry Goldwater is going to look like an extremely successful candidate.” Interestingly, Nick Confessore of the New York Times disagreed, arguing that the American electorate is so polarized that LBJ-like landslides are impossible today, and that the candidate of either party has a guaranteed base of 48%.
Let’s look at the electoral map. In order for Scarborough to be right, Trump would have to lose some of the Deep South states that Goldwater carried. So which of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina does Joe say Hillary will win? And even if Hillary did manage to take, say, Georgia, is Scarborough saying that Trump won’t win any states that Goldwater lost? Hillary will win each of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, etc? Really?
JOE SCARBOROUGH: The thing is, Nick, you just look at the numbers right now. I’m loved with Hispanics: 89% of Hispanics disapprove of him. The blacks love me, he says. 94% of black voters disapprove of him. Women love me. I’ll be great for women. What is that? Up in the 70s now?
RON FOURNIER: 53% of low-income whites days disapprove of him.
JOE: 53% of low-income whites days disapprove of him. We have never seen numbers like this. Barry Goldwater is going to look like an extremely successful candidate.
NICK CONFESSORE: I don’t think so. I’m probably going to eat these words, but I don’t think a Goldwater-type landslide is possible in politics today. Americans are too polarized and segmented.
DONNY DEUTSCH: Let me give you other numbers beyond the disapproval. You can still disapprove and maybe vote for somebody. 65% of women have said they will absolutely not vote for him. 55% of men, we will absolutely not vote. These are people not just disapproving. There’s just nothing that’s going to happen that’s going to — how does a landslide not come out of that?
CONFESSORE: I’m just saying people are polarized by party and party ideas so strong in this country right now, that at the end everybody kind of comes home to some extent. And the amount of voters in the middle that go back and forth has become so small. I think any candidate for a ticket is guaranteed 48% of the vote basically.
Poster Comment:
This has been daily on their show.
However before the other opponents quit Joe and Mika were praising Trump daily and ridiculing those not supporting him, with Trump calling in to their show more than once per week.
Recall just a few weeks ago: How Morning Joe Morphed into Mean Girls (NR 5/3/2016 on the daily Worship of Trump on Morning Joe)
#1: TrappedInMd To: All (#0)
Morning Blow: How Joe and Mika Became Trump's Lapdogs(Rolling Stone February 23, 2016 )
TrappedInMd posted on 2016-06-17 12:08:01 Reply Private Reply
#2: TrappedInMd To: All (#0)
TrappedInMd posted on 2016-06-17 12:10:56 Reply Private Reply
#3: TrappedInMd To: All (#0)
TrappedInMd posted on 2016-06-17 12:13:45 Reply Private Reply
#4: redleghunter To: TrappedInMd (#3)
redleghunter posted on 2016-06-17 12:26:18 Reply Private Reply
#5: BobCeleste To: TrappedInMd (#0)
BobCeleste posted on 2016-06-17 12:31:30 Reply Private Reply
#6: TrappedInMd To: redleghunter (#4)
Support him in the primary.
Rip him in the general.
Now they are ridiculing anyone who endorses Trump.
TrappedInMd posted on 2016-06-17 12:35:16 Reply Private Reply
#7: misterwhite To: TrappedInMd (#0)
47 of the 53% don't even pay taxes. Trump's message to cut taxes is lost on them.
They're more concerned with losing their monthly federal check than getting a job. So Trump's message to create jobs falls on deaf ears.
Get rid of Obamacare? They're on Medicaid. What do they care?
Make America great again? Pffft. For them, life is already great.
misterwhite posted on 2016-06-17 12:48:49 Reply Private Reply
#8: TrappedInMd To: misterwhite (#7)
Those *exact* same arguments didn't help Romney win in 2012.
Where is that Trump magic we were all lectured about?
TrappedInMd posted on 2016-06-17 13:04:55 Reply Private Reply
#9: redleghunter To: TrappedInMd (#6)
Of course. Happens every Prez election cycle. They find a media darling, promote him and then tear him apart because they are behind whoever is not an "R".
redleghunter posted on 2016-06-17 13:13:44 Reply Private Reply
#10: Stoner To: TrappedInMd (#0)
Stoner posted on 2016-06-17 13:30:38 Reply Private Reply
#11: TrappedInMd To: Stoner (#10)
That is the standard response every election cycle however if you look at the first few comments I point out how the Morning Joe was the Morning Trump show were they all praised and almost worshipped him daily during the primary, ridiculing all those opposed to him.
Here is a typical FR/Trump comment from back then:
I faithfully watch Joe & Mika by DVR every day, since last June. Of all people, and all cable shows, those two have been all-in for TRUMP and invested every hour of their three hour programming in Trump
(#15 posted on 5/3/2016 7:51:01 PM by RitaOK at FR)
TrappedInMd posted on 2016-06-17 13:43:36 Reply Private Reply
#12: Stoner To: TrappedInMd (#11)
Stoner posted on 2016-06-17 13:49:28 Reply Private Reply
#13: misterwhite To: TrappedInMd (#8)
True. Trumps is going to have to win over some Democrats.
But my point was, when that 47% grows to 51%, we're screwed. The takers will outnumber the producers and will "vote itself largess out of the public treasury".
misterwhite posted on 2016-06-18 09:11:08 Reply Private Reply
#14: Stoner To: misterwhite (#13)
At that point, I do not think we will remain a "civil" society.
Stoner posted on 2016-06-18 09:43:11 Reply Private Reply