CBS Battleground Polls: Donald Trump Extends Leads, Lack of “Authenticity” Dogging Ted Cruz…
Posted on April 17, 2016 by sundance
Conservative Treehouse
CBS via YouGov has released a series of battleground polls for New York, Pennsylvania and California (full pdf’s below). Interestingly the polls are not identical questionnaires; instead they appear geographically nuanced, specifically on the Democrat queries.
However, there are some rather interesting trend similarities which are embedding as the campaigns of the three remaining republican candidates take on increased importance:
- The electorate has made up their mind. There is only about 3% of the electorate who might change their vote. There will not be any “surging” per se’.
- Donald Trump’s overall appeal is across all demographics and internal ideologies.
- Donald Trump wins with women voters, and higher information political consumers.
- Very Importantly – Trump is seen as most authentic and capable as a political change agent.
- Trump also leads with Hispanic voters in California, and absolutely crushes the competition with the Asian electorate.
- The most important issue in all three states (NY, PA, CA) are jobs/economy. And economic voters are overwhelmingly Trump voters. (Trump also leads on the alternative issues – second place: security/terrorism)
- Conversely, Ted Cruz is seen as the most “inauthentic” candidate in the race.
[snip - state polling results]
In every poll Donald Trump wins the “he-is-who-he-is” factor.
As Lee Atwater would tell you, that’s critically important. Once the broader electorate sense “who you are”, and become comfortable with that sensibility, there is a remarkable shift toward granting the benefit of doubt in policy and change.
[The most recent example of such a benefactor was Bill Clinton in his prime.]
However, in the same polls, Ted Cruz is viewed as the candidate willing to tell you everything you want to hear so long as it benefits him. That’s the “authenticity” issue. Just as there is a long-term benefit in positive authenticity polling, there is a long-term detriment in negative authenticity polling.
Opinions of “authenticity” are almost impossible to change once they embed. The word ‘almost’ is an understatement, because no politician in modern times has ever been able to reverse the authenticity component.
Bernie Sanders also benefits from positive opinions in authenticity, and Hillary Clinton is viewed similarly to Cruz as inherently inauthentic as a matter of mere disposition.
“Lyin’ Ted” and issues with “The System” are linguistic kill shots that candidate Trump has used skillfully. The greater benefit is now becoming easier to see.
#1: buckeroo To: nolu chan (#0)
Oh HORSESHIT! It is about a political system that has fallen into decay since WW2. None of these candidates care. None of these candidates will change anything.
buckeroo posted on 2016-04-18 15:26:07 Reply Private Reply
#2: Hondo68 To: nolu chan (#0)
Hondo68 posted on 2016-04-18 16:06:24 Reply Private Reply
#3: Fred Mertz To: nolu chan (#0)
Back when I lived in these three states, the most important thing was blow jobs.
Fred Mertz posted on 2016-04-18 16:23:14 Reply Private Reply
#4: redleghunter To: nolu chan (#0)
This is not very clear at all.
redleghunter posted on 2016-04-18 16:25:39 Reply Private Reply
#5: nolu chan To: redleghunter (#4)
Cruz.
The title:
The article notes that Hillary suffers from the same public perception of inauthenticity that is cratering the Cruz campaign.
nolu chan posted on 2016-04-18 16:39:55 Reply Private Reply
#6: redleghunter To: nolu chan (#5)
Popularity polls within parties right now mean little. Most votes were cast already and the process is now up to the state conventions and on to the national GOP convention. Been like that for decades.
redleghunter posted on 2016-04-18 17:02:48 Reply Private Reply
#7: Fred Mertz To: redleghunter (#6)
The next three months are a sideshow for those politically inclined.
Fred Mertz posted on 2016-04-18 17:05:46 Reply Private Reply
#8: Hondo68 To: Fred Mertz, feel the Bern (#7)
Bernie is an ol' Brooklyn boy. He'll clean that Jamacia Republican, DJT's clock in the NY state primary!
Trump has like 20 bodyguards, but Bernie just wanders around NYC with his bongos.
Hondo68 posted on 2016-04-18 17:33:49 Reply Private Reply
#9: Fred Mertz To: hondo68 (#8)
I feel the Bern.
Fred Mertz posted on 2016-04-18 17:35:59 Reply Private Reply
#10: interpreter To: buckeroo (#1)
I have now made it official. I have officially predicted that Trump will be the 45th rider of the pale horse. (See my predictions for 2016 at the7lastplagues.com).
interpreter posted on 2016-04-18 17:36:12 Reply Private Reply
#11: tomder55 To: redleghunter, nolu chan (#4)
He's relying on very favorable outlier polling by CBS and pompom swinging Fox .
As you see in this RCP average ; the other polling organizations have it much closer
tomder55 posted on 2016-04-18 18:15:56 Reply Private Reply
#12: rlk To: buckeroo (#1)
It's about who does or doesn't represent that decay.
rlk posted on 2016-04-18 18:37:14 Reply Private Reply
#13: SOSO To: Fred Mertz (#3)
So you were visiting the bath houses back then? Gross, man.
SOSO posted on 2016-04-18 19:16:15 Reply Private Reply
#14: SOSO To: Fred Mertz, hondo68 (#9)
I grew up in Brooklyn and I most definitely do not. He left Brooklyn before I did and I have been gone for over 45 years. I was even a lifeguard at Coney Island for a couple of summers. I would not know the place today and neither would he.
SOSO posted on 2016-04-18 19:20:22 Reply Private Reply
#15: nolu chan To: tomder55, redleghunter (#11)
Of course, Trump has led in every poll this year. Desperate people make desperate afactual claims.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html
nolu chan posted on 2016-04-18 19:45:03 Reply Private Reply
#16: ConservingFreedom To: nolu chan (#15)
Nobody here said otherwise.
The irony is priceless.
ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-04-18 21:25:58 Reply Private Reply
#17: nolu chan To: ConservingFreedom (#16)
Ted Cruz mathematically eliminated
from any chance to secure 1,237 bound delegates before the convention.
In New York, the presumptive candidate Donald Trump opened such a can of whupass, the now mathematically eliminated Ted Cruz was ignominiously relegated to third place, 45 points behind Trump and ten points behind John Kasich.
R.I.P. Cruz campaign, April 19, 2016
nolu chan posted on 2016-04-20 10:26:52 Reply Private Reply