Wisconsin exit poll: More than a third of Republicans won’t vote GOP if Trump — or Cruz — is the nominee

Source: HotAir
Published: Apr 6, 2016
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2016-04-07 03:21:10 by Tooconservative
Views: 4403

A leftover from last night. In case you thought there’s even a whisper of a chance that the GOP will win this November, disabuse yourself of that now. It’s not just #NeverTrump that threatens to sink the party. It’s #NeverCruz too.

When asked what they would do if Cruz were the GOP nominee in November, only 65 percent of Wisconsin Republicans said they’d vote for him. The remainder instead would vote for a third-party candidate (18 percent), vote for Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton (7 percent) or not vote at all (6 percent).

The numbers got slightly worse for the Republican Party when voters were asked to consider Trump as the GOP nominee. Just 61 percent said they’d vote for the brash businessman, with the rest defecting to a third party (16 percent) or to Clinton (10 percent)—or simply staying home (9 percent).

Question: Are the #NeverCruz people really #OnlyTrump people? I think #NeverTrumpers would be willing to vote for damn near any third-party nominee with conservative cred — Tom Coburn, Rick Perry, you name it. With #NeverCruzers I’m not sure. I think many of them are imagining the third-party candidate in this scenario to be Trump himself. Right? If Cruz wins on the convention floor, Trumpers will be expecting Trump to declare his independent candidacy, sore-loser laws be damned, and to battle on to November. I don’t know if he’ll do that. He’d have zero chance to win and he’s not a guy who seems eager to spend down his nest egg on building a formidable campaign even in the current favorable circumstances (if he was, he’d probably have the nomination locked up by now). Why would he spend to build one for a lost cause? I think he’d sit it out, encourage his fans to write him in — which many would — and spend the fall sniping at Cruz in media appearances. He’d still do major damage to Cruz as a write-in, but not to the tune of 18 percent. I think 5-7 percent is realistic, with plenty of other Trumpers reluctantly resigned to voting Cruz once it’s gut-check time in late October. Although don’t misunderstand: I think Cruz is a longshot this fall, albeit not as much as a longshot as Trump. Even with an excellent organization, his odds of beating Hillary after a bitter floor fight and splintered party can’t be more than 40 percent.

If you missed the rest of the exit polls last night, skim through them now and see what jumps out. Right away, you’ll find the numbers among men and women were nearly identical for all three candidates with Cruz winning 48/35 in both groups. That explains why the now infamous ARG poll of Wisconsin was so wildly wrong. ARG correctly had Cruz winning big among women but they put Trump ahead among men … 57/23. They missed by 47 points. For all the hype, including from me, about a looming gender gap in Wisconsin, there was no gap at all. Cruz crushed it among both sexes. Meanwhile, ideologically, in the past Cruz wins have been defined by running up the score with “very conservative” voters. He did that again last night, 65/28, but he also topped Trump among “somewhat conservatives,” 47/36, and finished just 11 points behind among moderates, a group among which Trump usually kills him. (Relatedly, Cruz tied Trump at 40 percent among independents, an amazing neutralization of the threat posed by Wisconsin’s open primary.) If you’re invested in the idea that last night was a turning point, writes Nate Cohn, that’s your best evidence. It may be that centrists, who haven’t been warm to Cruz thus far, are finally cutting Kasich loose and starting to line up behind Cruz as the last Not Trump standing. If Wisconsin is the start of a national trend in that regard, with Trump no longer able to count on his core demographics to deliver for him, he’s in trouble.

It appears that many moderate voters, who have long been the biggest obstacle to Mr. Cruz, finally broke his way. According to exit polls, Mr. Cruz won 29 percent of them — far higher than the 12 percent he won in Michigan and 15 percent in Illinois. Mr. Kasich’s share of the vote among both self-described “moderate” and “somewhat conservative” voters dropped…

But perhaps the best reason to think it still might be part of a broader phenomenon for Mr. Cruz is that he has outperformed expectations at every point since Super Tuesday. He nearly doubled his support in the contests immediately after Super Tuesday, as Mr. Rubio faltered. He posted strong showings on March 15 — like clearing 40 percent of the vote in Missouri and 30 percent in Illinois — that were largely overlooked because it was not enough for him to win…

If Mr. Cruz’s step forward is representative of the rest of his race, Mr. Trump will no longer be on track to amass a majority of delegates. Here’s one way to think about it: If Mr. Cruz outperforms our model by the same amount that he did Tuesday, Mr. Trump will go from a favorite to an underdog in California, Indiana, Maryland and Montana. Pennsylvania would be competitive. Mr. Trump would not even be near the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.

There’s no great mystery to what’s happening here. Rubio fans began drifting towards Cruz weeks ago, even before Rubio dropped out, as they concluded that Cruz was a better long-term bet to stop Trump than Marco was. Once Rubio made it official and quit, that drift accelerated. (In fact, per Philip Klein, Cruz has won more delegates since Rubio left the race than Trump has.) Now you’re seeing something similar happen with some of Kasich’s supporters: As he continues to lose, and lose badly, in one state after another, parts of his base are reluctantly accepting that he’s a lost cause and swinging around to Cruz as their #NeverTrump choice. It may be that Cruz is going to run into diminishing returns with the most loyal Kasich voters, who are likely firmly centrist and have resisted all appeals to switch to Cruz so far. But then, it might not matter. Cruz’s goal at this point isn’t to get to 1,237 before the convention or even to win states per se. His goal is to hold Trump as far below 1,237 as he can. If he can split the remaining delegates on the table in the primaries with Trump 50/50, he’ll accomplish that easily. And who knows? Maybe some of those stubborn Kasich dead-enders will be newly alienated by whatever boorish thing Trump says this week or next week or the week after that. Trump will continue to produce defectors for Cruz through his own behavior. The only question is how many.

In fact, here’s a stat that sums all of this up nicely:

Trump’s audience isn't growing, @alexcast says. Average vote share after 30 states is 35.6% —almost same as 35.3% in his 1st victory, in NH

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) April 6, 2016

Nate Silver fleshed that out a bit:

Trump came close to his results in neighboring states tonight. Cruz had a breakthrough, though. pic.twitter.com/Fr9OFsNZ0y

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 6, 2016

Trump has his loyal third of the party (okay, slightly more than third) but it’s not growing. It’s Cruz’s numbers that are growing as the race becomes the “Trump vs. Not Trump” contest he’s craved all along. Trump has to reverse that in the few remaining midwestern states to come, like Indiana, to get to 1,237 before Cleveland. He’s going to crush Cruz in New York in two weeks, but that landslide has already been priced into his chances at winning a majority of delegates before the convention. He needs some mojo in the toss-up states, not the sure things, to help himself. Where does he get it?

Post Comment   Private Reply

#1: Tooconservative    To: SOSO (#0)

You could have written that second sentence. You probably have sometime in the last year.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-07 03:27:32   Reply   Private Reply

#2: Hondo68    To: TooConservative (#0)

Giuliani to meet with Ted Cruz

Giuliani is for sale.

Hondo68 posted on 2016-04-07 03:50:17   Reply   Private Reply

#3: Tooconservative    To: hondo68 (#2)

Giuliani to meet with Ted Cruz

He might want something. Like DHS secretary. Or even DCI.

Smart move for Cruz. Well, he really doesn't have any other moves.     : )

The only thing Cruz can hope for is to hold Trump under 50% so he doesn't get winner-take-all and Cruz (or Kasich) would inevitably score some delegate scraps due to NY's Byzantine delegate assignment protocols.

I'd guess Rudy won't go out on a limb for Ted unless Cruz makes amends publicly for his "New York values" comments at that early GOP debate.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-07 04:49:57   Reply   Private Reply

#4: Pericles    To: TooConservative, hondo68 (#3)

Giuliani to meet with Ted Cruz

He might want something. Like DHS secretary. Or even DCI.

Giuliani is a Trump advisor. This should be interesting.

Pericles posted on 2016-04-07 05:27:47   Reply   Private Reply

#5: Tooconservative    To: Pericles (#4)

Giuliani is a Trump advisor. This should be interesting.

He was early on, back when no one (including him) thought Trump had any chance to last past Iowa. Lately he's waffling. I think he is considering whether the GOPe will blame him for not taking a stand against Trump.

You do have these kinds of recriminations for these longstanding party fixtures. In 2012, Adelson and his wife gave at least $50M to Gingrinch who used the money to damage Romney. Adelson then tried to recoup with the other tycoons in the GOP orbit by giving over $100M to Romney but blame was still attached. And that can have costs when an Adelson wants a favor from someone or from the GOPe establishment.

I don't think Rudy can be too happy that the final footnote in his biography might be his backing Trump in a a 400+ Hillary landslide. And Rudy is very much a GOP establishment figure. He does care what they think.

And don't underestimate the appeal for Rudy to play kingmaker, to deal a blow to Trump in NY as serious as the one Walker hit Trump with in Wisconsin. These guys love their power, love to demonstrate it, to use it. In part, that is because they know how fleeting it is. It's a definite use-it-or-lose-it kind of thing.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-07 05:50:53   Reply   Private Reply

#6: A K A Stone    To: TooConservative (#5)

I don't think Rudy can be too happy that the final footnote in his biography might be his backing Trump in a a 400+ Hillary landslide.

Aren't you the moron who said Trump wasn't running and would drop out by October and never be above 10 percent. Yes that was you.

On the other hand didn't I tell you you were full of shit. Yes I did and you are.

Truth.

A K A Stone posted on 2016-04-07 07:44:09   Reply   Private Reply

#7: Tooconservative    To: A K A Stone (#6)

Aren't you the moron who said Trump wasn't running and would drop out by October and never be above 10 percent. Yes that was you.

Was it? Are you sure? It was so long ago that I don't recall these petty details.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-07 07:46:22   Reply   Private Reply

#8: A K A Stone    To: TooConservative (#7)

Was it? Are you sure? It was so long ago that I don't recall these petty details.

Yes it was.

See your doctor. Dementia and Alzheimer's can be a bitch I hear.

A K A Stone posted on 2016-04-07 07:50:47   Reply   Private Reply

#9: Stoner    To: TooConservative (#5)

" 400+ Hillary landslide "

Some of you clowns are giving Hillary waaaay too much credit.

Stoner posted on 2016-04-07 08:35:07   Reply   Private Reply

#10: misterwhite    To: TooConservative (#0)

"Wisconsin exit poll: More than a third of Republicans won’t vote GOP if Trump — or Cruz — is the nominee"

Did they perform a Wisconsin exit poll of Democrats? Wanna bet that more than a third of them won't vote Democrat if Hillary — or Sanders — is the nominee?

Stupid, biased, one-sided poll. Just like those polls about Trump's negatives which fail to mention that Hillary's negatives are the same.

misterwhite posted on 2016-04-07 08:37:40   Reply   Private Reply

#11: Tooconservative    To: Stoner (#9)

Some of you clowns are giving Hillary waaaay too much credit.

Some of you clowns are giving Hillary Trump waaaay too much credit.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-07 08:48:53   Reply   Private Reply

#12: Tooconservative    To: misterwhite (#10)

Wanna bet that more than a third of them won't vote Democrat if Hillary — or Sanders — is the nominee?

Dems are much more loyal. They'll vote for any D. on the ballot.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-07 08:49:45   Reply   Private Reply

#13: misterwhite    To: TooConservative (#12)

"Dems are much more loyal. They'll vote for any D. on the ballot."

Gosh. I'd like to believe you but ... you know ... this being a small forum and all.

I'd still like to see the poll.

misterwhite posted on 2016-04-07 09:05:39   Reply   Private Reply

#14: Stoner    To: misterwhite (#10)

" Wisconsin exit poll: More than a third of Republicans won’t vote GOP if Trump — or Cruz — is the nominee" "

Let me guess. This poll was commissioned by Kaysick.

He will be touting this as his campaigns salvation.

Stoner posted on 2016-04-07 09:06:17   Reply   Private Reply

#15: misterwhite    To: Stoner (#14)

"Let me guess. This poll was commissioned by Kaysick."

It was a NBC exit poll question. Yet they didn't ask the Democrats the same question.

misterwhite posted on 2016-04-07 09:33:39   Reply   Private Reply

#16: SOSO    To: TooConservative (#1)

You could have written that second sentence. You probably have sometime in the last year.

Here's something new from me. There is a glimmer of hope for the REPS in November. There appears to be a significant Only Bernie clump among DRat voters that will not support Hillary in November. Perhaps......................naw.

SOSO posted on 2016-04-07 11:19:50   Reply   Private Reply

#17: Tooconservative    To: SOSO (#16)

Partisanship of that kind usually is less than 10%, no matter how bitter the primaries. And in any election, you can have 3%-5% of either party's base voters get in a snit about something and drop out or vote third party.

The whole refusenik thing has been done to death.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-07 12:00:23   Reply   Private Reply

#18: nolu chan    To: TooConservative (#0)

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/sanders-supporters-not-vote-clinton-221642

Poll: 1 in 4 Sanders supporters won't vote for Clinton

By Nick Gass
04/06/16 12:37 PM EDT

All is well. Almost as many Sanders supporters will not vote for Hillary.

nolu chan posted on 2016-04-07 12:13:56   Reply   Private Reply

#19: SOSO    To: TooConservative (#17)

The whole refusenik thing has been done to death.

Do you think that the stay at homes cost Romney the election?

SOSO posted on 2016-04-07 16:36:36   Reply   Private Reply

#20: Tooconservative    To: SOSO (#19)

Do you think that the stay at homes cost Romney the election?

Well, you hear that.

Of course, Romney partisans in the GOPe like to say that kind of thing, so they can blame the stay-homes for the loss, meaning there was nothing wrong with the GOPe and their boy Mitt.

And the stay-homes themselves like to claim it, to prove they "sent a message" to the GOPe.

It's very hard to prove any of that in our election system. It would be hard even if libmedia wasn't totally against us.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-07 16:47:50   Reply   Private Reply

#21: A K A Stone    To: TooConservative (#17)

And in any election, you can have 3%-5% of either party's base voters get in a snit about something and drop out or vote third party.

The whole refusenik thing has been done to death.

Yeah your old turd act is getting old.

A K A Stone posted on 2016-04-07 17:00:15   Reply   Private Reply

#22: Tooconservative    To: A K A Stone (#21)

Yeah your old turd act is getting old.

I'm glad that my efforts are appreciated.

I live in one of the most Republican states (last voted Dem in 1964 when we had a lot more Dems; the Dem party is almost extinct here now). Even if I am a refusenik, I know that the GOP voters in my state will give our electoral college votes to the GOP nominee anyway.

I do know a lot of steady loyal Republicans who are saying they won't vote Republican if Trump is the nominee. That is very unusual here. Probably means nothing and they'll grit their teeth and vote like partisan hacks like always.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-07 17:18:48   Reply   Private Reply

#23: Stoner    To: TooConservative (#11)

" Some of you clowns are giving Hillary Trump waaaay too much credit. "

LOL, how original, LOL!

Stoner posted on 2016-04-08 09:38:13   Reply   Private Reply

#24: Tooconservative    To: Stoner (#23)

I worked hard on that post. Glad to know it was appreciated.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-08 09:50:08   Reply   Private Reply

#25: Pericles    To: TooConservative (#5)

Turns out it was another Ted lie / planTed story - http://nypost.com/2016/04/07/rudy-giuliani-is-voting-for-donald-trump/ - Rudy Giuliani is voting for Donald Trump By Carl Campanile April 7, 2016 | 1:45pm

Pericles posted on 2016-04-08 13:08:17   Reply   Private Reply

#26: Tooconservative    To: Pericles (#25)

Turns out it was another Ted lie / planTed story

I didn't hear anything about Cruz mentioning Giuliani.

Notice that Giuliani only said he was voting for Trump. He didn't endorse him, hasn't agreed to campaign or fundraise for him.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-08 13:29:51   Reply   Private Reply

#27: Pericles    To: TooConservative (#26)

Notice that Giuliani only said he was voting for Trump. He didn't endorse him, hasn't agreed to campaign or fundraise for him.

Speculation is that the GOP will revenge itself on people who endorse Trump. Also, he maybe VP choice. But G-Man said he is voting for Trump and is the best candidate - words to that effect. I personally think this is G-Man's revenge on the Bush party establishment that shafted him when he ran for president.

Pericles posted on 2016-04-08 14:08:23   Reply   Private Reply

#28: Tooconservative    To: Pericles (#27)

Speculation is that the GOP will revenge itself on people who endorse Trump.

There's little doubt of that. That's why you only have a few House members backing Trump. Duncan Hunter Junior and Sean Duffy (western WI) are the only two I know of.

Not sure who Peter King is supporting but it almost has to be Trump. King probably hates Cruz more than even Lady Lindsey and the Stain do.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-08 14:18:49   Reply   Private Reply

#29: Tooconservative    To: Pericles (#27)

I personally think this is G-Man's revenge on the Bush party establishment that shafted him when he ran for president.

C'mon, he shafted himself when he said he'd pay for his own daughter's abortion. No way that would fly with pro-lifers. Before that, Rudy was enjoying 65% approval ratings. It was all downhill from there.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-08 14:20:18   Reply   Private Reply

#30: ConservingFreedom    To: TooConservative (#28)

https://www.rawstory.com/2016/04/new-york-gop-congressman-if-ted-cruz-is- the-nominee-ill-get-some-cyanide/ :

Rep. Peter King (R-NY) isn’t ready to endorse anyone for president — but he definitely opposes one of the GOP candidates.

In an appearance Thursday afternoon on the Fox Business Network, King said that he appreciated Trump’s support on past issues like his investigations of Muslim radicalization in America — but he also didn’t like Trump’s attacks on John McCain, or the allegation that President George W. Bush lied about the Iraq War.

But those disagreements pale in comparison to how much King really doesn’t like Ted Cruz.

“With Donald Trump, I’ve had some real issues with him. On the other hand, in no way am I comparing him to Ted Cruz,” King said. “Ted Cruz — anyone in New York who even thinks of voting for Ted Cruz is a nut!”

“What if Ted Cruz is the nominee, Congressman King?” host Trish Regan asked. “What if Ted Cruz is the nominee — what do you do, then?”

“I tell you, I don’t know — I’ll get some cyanide,” King said. “I don’t know what I’ll do. I mean, I’ll just — you know, not gonna tell you.”

A stunned Regan asked again: “Will you vote for him?”

“Listen, put it this way: I will endorse the nominee of the party,” King concluded. “But it wouldn’t be the most, you know, vociferous support.”

About a year ago, much earlier in the presidential primary season, King previously entertained other possible methods of suicide in the event of a Cruz nomination — having long despised the Texas senator over such issues as his role in the 2013 government shutdown, and that “he doesn’t carry out an intelligent debate” with anyone.

ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-04-08 14:31:03   Reply   Private Reply

#31: Tooconservative    To: ConservingFreedom (#30)

“With Donald Trump, I’ve had some real issues with him. On the other hand, in no way am I comparing him to Ted Cruz,” King said. “Ted Cruz — anyone in New York who even thinks of voting for Ted Cruz is a nut!”

No big surprise. King tries to throw his weight around and Cruz has made him mad several times before.

Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-08 14:50:56   Reply   Private Reply