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We owe Trump fans some cause for hope tomorrow night. I think he’ll do better than the worst polls of Wisconsin, which currently have him down 10 points, are predicting, but, er, not this much better. Even Roger Stone thinks he’s going to lose the state, for cripes sake. This seems … sort of vaguely plausible, if unlikely? I guess?
No other pollster has had Trump above 37 percent in Wisconsin, but okay. The next table, though, seems less likely. If Trump’s going to surprise in Wisconsin, you’d expect to see a big surge of independents taking advantage of Wisconsin’s open primary. That’s not what ARG sees:
Trump cleans up with party regulars while Cruz holds him to a five-point lead among indies and Democrats? Highly unlikely. And for what it’s worth, it wouldn’t be unusual for ARG to miss big on a major primary during this campaign. They’ve gotten some more or less right, getting within 3.5 points of predicting Trump’s blowout win in New Hampshire and two points of his final margin in South Carolina, but they’ve had some major whiffs. Their final poll of Texas had Cruz winning by a single point. The actual margin on election day: Cruz by 17. They were the only pollsters this year to find someone besides Trump winning Michigan; they had Kasich by two just 72 hours before the vote. Trump won the state by nearly 12 points. Harry Enten, whose FiveThirtyEight site gives ARG a C- in pollster ratings, also notes that ARG somehow had Kasich a point ahead of Cruz in its final poll of South Carolina — a state where Cruz had invested considerable resources and enjoyed a natural base of southern evangelicals. Cruz more than doubled Kasich’s take in the primary, 18.5 to nine. I’m going to inch out on a limb and predict that they’ll have the order of Cruz and Trump wrong in Wisconsin too. One more bit from ARG. This may help explain why the result here is off:
The lean towards Cruz there among women is probably higher than we’ll see tomorrow night but not necessarily. Multiple pollsters have showed Cruz winning big with that group in Wisconsin and one of them, Fox Business, found the same 19-point margin that ARG did. No one but no one, though, sees Cruz getting crushed by the gigantic 34-point spread among men that Trump enjoys here. To the extent that Trump leads Cruz among men in other polls, it’s only narrowly whereas Cruz leads among women decisively, which explains his overall margin. If you’re a Trump fan searching for spin and/or cause for optimism tomorrow, you’re better off skipping the ARG poll and focusing instead on the fact that Trump is poised to utterly crush Cruz in New York on April 19th. Losing badly tomorrow night is a major setback in the quest to clinch before the convention unless Trump can orchestrate a major blowout of Ted “New York values” Cruz in NY two weeks from now. Unless he underperforms in both, he’s still got a shot at 1,237. If he does underperform in both, though, hoo boy. |
Poster Comment:
Last-minute polling, showing how widely these polls have swung this year, how few have any track record, and how often they are so completely hit-or-miss that they're kinda worthless as polls.
No way to know whether this has any accuracy at all until tonight. Meaning that there's no point to it as polls go.
#1: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#0)
You're right. I think a February poll is much more accurate than one taken yesterday.
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-05 09:40:11 Reply Private Reply
#2: BobCeleste To: TooConservative (#0)
I was asked what Scripture came to mind when I heard the name Rafael Ted Cruz.
Psalm 109 6 ¶ Set thou a wicked man over him: and let Satan stand at his right hand.
7 When he shall be judged, let him be condemned: and let his prayer become sin.
8 Let his days be few; and let another take his office.
9 Let his children be fatherless, and his wife a widow.
Christ is in charge, if He wants the USA destroyed, He will make Cruz, Hillary or Bernie in charge, but, if He wants to give the USA a second chance He will hear my prayer and put Donald John Trump in charge.
BobCeleste posted on 2016-04-05 09:54:35 Reply Private Reply
#3: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#1)
By the time you start considering polls with 5% error margins, you might as well flip a coin or just go by a state's past voting record.
The state of polling is really awful, as I've said so many times. Far worse than previous cycles.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-05 09:55:38 Reply Private Reply
#4: Tooconservative To: BobCeleste (#2)
So your bible is telling you that Cruz should be dead.
It is convenient when your candidate preference aligns so nicely with deathwishing the other guy.
So should Kasich also die? Or is Cruz enough?
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-05 10:06:09 Reply Private Reply
#5: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#3)
You would have had much more credibility if you had posted this on the thread announcing Cruz's 10-point lead over Trump in Wisconsin.
As it is, it looks like sour grapes.
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-05 10:12:51 Reply Private Reply
#6: Deckard To: TooConservative, BobCeleste (#4)
Pretty sure that scripture was making the rounds after Obama was elected.
Deckard posted on 2016-04-05 10:17:13 Reply Private Reply
#7: BobCeleste To: TooConservative (#0)
BobCeleste posted on 2016-04-05 10:36:23 Reply Private Reply
#8: BobCeleste To: TooConservative (#4)
Don't you think you have marginalized yourself enough?
Do you really want to get into the Bible with me?
BobCeleste posted on 2016-04-05 10:38:00 Reply Private Reply
#9: BobCeleste To: Deckard (#6)
and find out where it first started.
BobCeleste posted on 2016-04-05 10:40:20 Reply Private Reply
#10: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#5)
I don't see how. I posted the other "Oh, my..." thread just as I posted this one but that was days ago. I thought a fresh election-eve poll rated its own thread.
And we'll see tonight which "Oh, my..." polling thread was the more accurate one.
It looks to me like you're just trying to find some fault to bitch about, considering this poll is an outlier showing a Trump surge.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-05 10:50:31 Reply Private Reply
#11: Tooconservative To: BobCeleste (#8)
I post on LF. How much more marginal could I possibly be?
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-05 10:51:20 Reply Private Reply
#12: tomder55 To: TooConservative (#0)
He launched bizzare attacks on Scott Walker ,even criticizing him for NOT raising taxes. Then one of his advisors whispered in his ear that Walker is loved in the state by the conservative base . So Trump said he stopped attacking Walker because ;“Right now I’m catering to the Republicans”. We all know where this is going . He's not Republican ;he does not like Repubican policies . If he is the nominee it will be a Dem v Dem or Dem v Socialist .
tomder55 posted on 2016-04-05 11:02:32 Reply Private Reply
#13: tpaine To: tomder55 (#12)
If he is the nominee it will be a Nationalist (with capitalist/libertarian tendencies) v Dem/Socialist .
tpaine posted on 2016-04-05 11:31:17 Reply Private Reply
#14: Hondo68 To: TooConservative, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#0)
If this poll is correct the next president will be Bernie or Hillary.
Trump is unelectable, ditto for the Canuck. Once again, the least important election in history.
They're able to achieve this every 4 years by running the dregs of society, confident that the voting retards will pick either a R or a D.
This virtually guarantees that America will lose once again, and reach a new low every 4 years.
Hondo68 posted on 2016-04-05 11:45:27 Reply Private Reply
#15: Tooconservative To: hondo68 (#14)
I think Trump is. Cruz might squeak in. He hasn't made himself so hated as Trump with so many groups, women most of all.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-05 11:52:17 Reply Private Reply
#16: tomder55 To: tpaine (#13)
Would he be a constitutionalist ,or a statist ?
tomder55 posted on 2016-04-05 11:54:09 Reply Private Reply
#17: Roscoe To: TooConservative (#11)
I gotta award TC a point for that.
Roscoe posted on 2016-04-05 12:08:54 Reply Private Reply
#18: Hondo68 To: misterwhite, TooConservative (#5)
538 gives ARG (American Research Group) polling a C-
fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
Hondo68 posted on 2016-04-05 12:53:58 Reply Private Reply
#19: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#15)
Unlike Hillary, huh?
"But Hillary Clinton’s negatives among women voters are broad and deep. Our poll results, which mirror those of many other recent media polls, show that Hillary Clinton’s unfavorable ratings outweigh her favorability ratings in these areas:
In every region: In the East, 39 percent view her favorably; 53 percent view her unfavorably; in the Midwest, her ratings are 36 percent favorable to 62 percent unfavorable; in the South, 36 percent favorable to 60 percent unfavorable; in the West, 38 percent favorable to 54 percent unfavorable.
Among women on the right and in the center: Her ratings among Republican women are 9 percent favorable to 90 percent unfavorable; among independent women, they are 24 percent favorable to 65 percent unfavorable; among conservative women, 10 percent favorable to 88 percent unfavorable; among moderate women, 42 percent favorable to 50 percent unfavorable.
Among white and Hispanic women: Among white women, her ratings are 30 percent favorable to 65 percent unfavorable; among Hispanic women, they are 41 percent favorable to 56 percent unfavorable.
Among women of all ages: Women younger than 55 have a 37 percent favorable to 58 percent unfavorable view of Clinton; women older than 55 have a 37 percent favorable to 60 percent unfavorable view.
(http://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2016/04/04/the-hillary-irony-near-rock-bo bottom bottom-ratings-with-women/)
misterwhite posted on 2016-04-05 13:58:24 Reply Private Reply
#20: ConservingFreedom To: misterwhite, TooConservative (#19)
Beat that straw man.
ConservingFreedom posted on 2016-04-05 14:01:41 Reply Private Reply
#21: Stoner To: misterwhite (#19)
Stoner posted on 2016-04-05 14:08:02 Reply Private Reply
#22: Roscoe To: ConservingFreedom (#20)
You don't know what straw man means. Figures.
Roscoe posted on 2016-04-05 14:17:41 Reply Private Reply
#23: nolu chan To: TooConservative (#0)
RCP, in its poll of polls, weights the most recent polling more heavily than older polling. This is an incentive for deliberately fabricated last-minute polls for all sides.
Many, or most, of the polls are worthless. The general public cannot sort the wheat from the chaff.
nolu chan posted on 2016-04-05 15:51:03 Reply Private Reply
#24: Roscoe To: Stoner (#21)
Melania vs Huma. No contest.
Roscoe posted on 2016-04-05 16:07:09 Reply Private Reply
#25: tpaine To: tomder55, Y'ALL (#16)
I figure Trump to tend to statism. -- But the Constitutionalists will hold him down, just as we have with all presidents..
tpaine posted on 2016-04-05 16:23:40 Reply Private Reply
#26: Tooconservative To: nolu chan (#23)
I follow these polls about 10 times more than anyone I know. Yet I can't really assess which ones are more reliable. They all seem pretty awful and nearly all of them have much higher margins of error than they did in past election cycles.
They're so unreliable that I really should just give up reading polls. Or posting threads about them.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-04-05 16:29:05 Reply Private Reply
#27: VxH To: TooConservative (#0)
LOL.
VxH posted on 2016-04-06 20:59:55 Reply Private Reply