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Noteworthy for many reasons, starting with the fact that it shows Cruz out to whats easily his biggest lead in Wisconsin this month. Two other recent polls had him up by one point and five points, respectively; a third had Trump by two. This is the only poll taken over the past six days, though, which raises the question of whether its an outlier or its picking up recent movement towards Cruz for unknown reasons.
Another reason its noteworthy is the time frame. It was conducted between last Thursday and this past Monday, meaning that it did include several days of polling after the National Enquirer story about Cruz broke but didnt include any polling after Scott Walker endorsed Cruz yesterday morning and note that Walkers approval rating among Republicans here is 80/17. You would expect a poll like that, having missed the good news for Cruz but incorporated some of the bad, to show worse numbers than expected for him. Instead hes up by double digits. How can that be? One likely reason: Wisconsin loathes Trump.
Thats a favorable rating of 22/70 youre looking at there. (Among the entire electorate, that is, not just Republicans.) Cruzs rating is very poor too at 30/49; Hillary Clintons is even worse at 35/59. And yet, because Trump is so insanely toxic, Hillary destroys him in a hypothetical head-to-head, 47/37. Against Cruz, shes dead even at 44 apiece a startling result given Wisconsins reliable Democratic lean in presidential elections and Cruzs reputation for ideological extremism. A good Democratic candidate waltzes away with Wisconsin in November. A bad one, like Hillary, may have to work for it against a decent Republican nominee. (Bernie Sanders runs much more strongly against Trump and Cruz here than she does.) Against a terrible Republican nominee, though? No contest. Another eye-popping data point on Trump:
A clear majority of Wisconsinites are very uncomfortable with Trump as president. Cruz and Clinton draw poor numbers here too 32 percent and 42 percent, respectively but not nearly as poor as Trumps, which turns a potentially competitive midwestern state into a giveaway. In fact, the vast majority of Wisconsin GOPers who arent voting Trump are so firmly opposed to him, per Marquettes data, that he gained not a single point in their polling over the last month despite 31 percent of the primary electorate being freed up as other candidates like Marco Rubio left the race. Back in February, it was Trump 30, Cruz 19, Kasich 8. Cruz has gained 21 points since then and Kasich has gained 13. Trump: Zero. If youre of the belief that Kasich dropping out would propel Cruz to ultimate victory as anti-Trumpers unite behind him, you cant do better than that as evidence for your case. One more set of numbers, which wont surprise you but could be significant:
No gender gap for Cruz but a big one for Trump. Lots of ink has been spilled on the problems Trump will face with women in the general election but it could be that his retweeted insult of Heidi Cruz and the fallout from it are starting to bite with Republican women voters too. Itll take more than one poll and more than one state to validate that, but its something to watch if Cruzs numbers begin rising elsewhere. Is the anti-Trump wing of the party writ large thats unifying behind him or is it Republican women specifically, alienated by Trump, who are breaking his way? |
Oh my: Cruz 40, Trump 30, Kasich 21 in Wisconsin
| Source: | HotAir |
| Published: | Mar 30, 2016 |
| Author: | Allahpundit |
| Post Date: | 2016-03-30 17:05:38 by Tooconservative |
| Views: | 3620 |



#1: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#0)
That includes Mark Belling, who sometimes fills in for Rush. It's gotten so bad, I rarely listen to him now. I think the hard-core liberals at the old Air America radio network were nicer.
The Republican Party of Wisconsin has 42 total delegates: 18 are statewide delegates, while 24 will come from the 8 districts.
misterwhite posted on 2016-03-30 17:21:38 Reply Private Reply
#2: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#1)
You understate how much they hate him. I heard an interview the top guy did with Trump where he asked Trump if he knew before the interview that he was a sworn NeverTrumper. Trump was clearly taken aback.
I heard later that Trump hung up on him.
Trump really offends a state like Wisconsin. They're rigorously polite, like Canadians are. And they drink like fish, just like the Canadians do.
Perhaps you know more about WI's process than I. I've seen WI described as "winner take all, by district and by state". Does that mean that the delegates are awarded by the 8 districts then the majority of those 24 delegates are used to award the 18 at-large delegates with the entire 42 going to the overall winner? I can't find a good description of exactly how this works in the Wisconsin GOP primary. And the Dem primary there is proportional, like the rest of the Dim primaries.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-03-30 17:35:30 Reply Private Reply
#3: no gnu taxes To: TooConservative (#2)
From what I have heard, I thought Wisconsin was winner take all by State, period.
I was for Cruz all the way at the beginning, but his Clinton-esque type campaign is disgusting me more by the day.
no gnu taxes posted on 2016-03-30 17:56:29 Reply Private Reply
#4: misterwhite To: TooConservative (#2)
They claimed he "hung up" on Vicki McKenna. I happen to have been listening to that interview, and she got the 26 minutes they agreed to. She was dragging it out and he kept saying, "I gotta go ... good talking to you ... I have to go now" and then he finally hung up.
Her response was, "I can't believe he hung up on me".
"Does that mean that the delegates are awarded by the 8 districts then ..."
If a candidate has the most total statewide votes, he is awarded 18 delegates. For each separate district he wins, he is awarded 3 additional delegates.
misterwhite posted on 2016-03-30 18:22:28 Reply Private Reply
#5: Tooconservative To: misterwhite (#4)
But in the end, does one candidate end up with all the delegates?
I do see this page at WisPolitics.com.
I can see that it is possible that Cruz could take all 42.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-03-30 18:45:45 Reply Private Reply
#6: BobCeleste To: TooConservative (#0)
BobCeleste posted on 2016-03-30 20:38:21 Reply Private Reply
#7: Tooconservative To: BobCeleste (#6)
It's Trump they give all the free media to. And not because they like him. They intend to use him to wound or even destroy the GOP. Why else would they have given him $2 billion in free media coverage?
Tooconservative posted on 2016-03-30 20:49:14 Reply Private Reply
#8: Stoner To: BobCeleste (#6)
Stoner posted on 2016-03-30 20:50:01 Reply Private Reply
#9: A K A Stone To: TooConservative (#7)
Why do you desire to spin so much.
Truth is Trump goes on the shows and the othes are chicken. All the reporters say that.
Where did you get that 2 billion from? You just made it up. Making stuff up is lying.
Here is how the GOP is destroyed. They don't give the nomination to whoever gets the most delegates.
If that happens I will never vote GOP for the rest of my life.
I already intend on voting for one democrat against the POS Portman. He taught his kid to be a queer. Maybe he even molested him.
A K A Stone posted on 2016-03-30 20:53:54 Reply Private Reply
#10: A K A Stone To: Stoner (#8)
Natural born citizen.
A K A Stone posted on 2016-03-30 20:54:22 Reply Private Reply
#11: Stoner To: A K A Stone (#10)
Of course. Thanks. Tired, should have figured that.
Stoner posted on 2016-03-30 21:06:22 Reply Private Reply
#12: buckeroo To: A K A Stone, TooConservative (#9)
Stone, TC is discussing the HUGE value of free media coverage. The value of FREE media exposure is incalculable.
buckeroo posted on 2016-03-30 21:15:36 Reply Private Reply
#13: Fred Mertz To: A K A Stone (#9)
Yeah, right. You'll bend over next election and take it.
Fred Mertz posted on 2016-03-30 21:18:09 Reply Private Reply
#14: Tooconservative To: A K A Stone (#9)
They did a study and that was the number they came up with. It was a some time back.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-03-30 21:19:54 Reply Private Reply
#15: Stoner To: TooConservative, A K A Stone (#14)
Did " they" also calculate the value given to Cruz from Glen Beck, and Mark Levin.
Those two radio shows are solid airtime for Cruz. They do not talk about any thing else. The whole show is either slam Trump, or lovefest for Cruz.
Stoner posted on 2016-03-30 21:56:20 Reply Private Reply
#16: nolu chan To: TooConservative (#0)
Noteworthy for being a statistical dead heat within the large margin on error.
nolu chan posted on 2016-03-30 23:04:15 Reply Private Reply
#17: Tooconservative To: nolu chan (#16)
Tooconservative posted on 2016-03-31 04:32:26 Reply Private Reply
#18: BobCeleste To: TooConservative (#7)
Do you believe that the US is a Constitutional Republic?
If so, do you believe that the US Constitution is the supreme law of the land?
If so, do you believe that, as it is stated in Article Two section five, that a man must me a Natural Born Citizen, to be President?
Did you know that there are no less than Four Supreme Court rulings on the subject?
If so, have you read them?
BobCeleste posted on 2016-03-31 09:53:41 Reply Private Reply
#19: BobCeleste To: Stoner (#8)
Natural Born Citizen, Cruz is not.
BobCeleste posted on 2016-03-31 09:55:15 Reply Private Reply
#20: Tooconservative To: BobCeleste (#18)
I've read a fair amount, back when the effort (Oily Taitz, Trump) to demonstrate 0bama was not natural born.
My conclusion was that the Supremes have steadily hid behind whatever statutes the Congress had in place on the NBC status and issued the most narrow judgments they could. On some matters, the Court are real cowards. Similarly, we saw a hiatus by the Court on taking any gun rights cases for fifty years until Heller and a few others came along just a few years back.
Tooconservative posted on 2016-03-31 10:27:24 Reply Private Reply
#21: BobCeleste To: TooConservative (#20)
BobCeleste posted on 2016-04-03 08:06:24 Reply Private Reply