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Business Title: Leading Economic Index in U.S. Rises in Sign of Lasting Rebound June 17 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading indicators rose 0.4 percent in May, signaling the world’s largest economy will keep expanding in the second half of the year. The increase in the New York-based Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for three to six months matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The measure climbed for the 13th time in the past 14 months. The breadth of gains within the index indicates the European debt crisis will not derail the rebound from the worst recession since the 1930s. Another report today that showed first-time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly climbed last week is a reminder that the job market will take time to recover. “Europe is a little bit of a headwind, but we’re looking for decent growth in the second half,” Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale SA in New York, said before the report. “The U.S. is in a self-sustaining recovery.” Estimates for the February leading index ranged from a decline of 0.1 percent to a gain of 0.8 percent, according to the median of 58 projections in the Bloomberg News survey. The Conference Board revised April data to show no change rather than the previously reported 0.1 percent drop. Five of the 10 indicators in the leading index contributed to the measure in May, led by the spread between the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note and the Federal Reserve’s target rate for short-term loans between banks. An increase in the money supply and a longer factory workweek also added. Five of the components declined, including slumps in stock prices and building permits. Rate Spread The interest-rate spread may be less of a help in coming months. The gap between 10-year Treasury note yields and the overnight fed funds rate will probably narrow as the note’s yield drops on concern efforts to curb European government debt will slow global growth. The turmoil in Europe also hurt the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which averaged 1125.06 in May, down 6 percent from 1,197.32 a month earlier. Claims, which were little changed last month from April, are now climbing, signaling they will detract from the index in June. Initial jobless applications unexpectedly jumped to 472,000 in the week ended June 12 from 460,000 the prior week, according to figures from the Labor Department issued today. Prices Fall Also today, separate figures from the Labor Department showed consumer prices fell in May for a second month. The consumer price index dropped 0.2 percent, the biggest decrease since December 2008 and reflecting cheaper gasoline. The Conference Board’s index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, climbed 0.4 percent in May for a second month. The index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production, the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of U.S. recessions. The gauge of lagging indicators decreased 0.1 percent in May. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labor costs, inventories and consumer credit. Ciena Corp., the maker of network gear for the biggest U.S. phone companies, is among businesses seeing a recovery in customer spending. The Linthicum, Maryland-based company this week predicted third-quarter sales that beat analysts’ forecasts. ‘Improving’ Market “In North America, we see signs that the market environment is definitely improving,” Chief Executive Officer Gary Smith said in a conference call with investors on June 9. The economy will expand 3.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2011, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed in June. The jobless rate will average more than 9 percent through next year, allowing the Fed to hold off raising interest rates until 2011, the survey also found. Seven of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index are known ahead of time: stock prices, jobless claims, building permits, consumer expectations, the yield curve, factory hours and supplier delivery times. The Conference Board estimates new orders for consumer goods, bookings for capital goods and the money supply adjusted for inflation.
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#1. To: Brian S (#0)
Graveyard and whistling come to mind.
Just 10 days prior to the explosion, the Obama administration’s regulators gave the oil rig a pass, and last year the Obama administration granted BP a National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) exemption for its drilling operation.
I was never a fan of this series. It measures too many intangibles not directly related to economic activity.
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace I'm biased, obviously, given the shit I'm subjected to daily here from the anti groupie. Badeye posted on 2010-06-10 11:34:31 ET Reply Trace Private Reply
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