Independents, Not Moderates Support Republicans Despite slipping approval ratings, President Obama continues to lead all five major Republican presidential candidates. Increasing his advantage by two percentage points, Obama now leads Sarah Palin 50-41.
Voters’ opinions of the top Republicans have also taken a hit. Mike Huckabee’s favorability dropped from 33 to 27 % while Palin’s sunk from 37 to 34 %.
Amongst Republicans Palin is seen most favorably at 66%, followed by Gingrich and Huckabee, who both receive 50%. Ron Paul is the weakest with a meager 25% approval rating amongst Republicans. However, Paul is the strongest with voters who identify as independents or others.
In a matchup against Obama, every Republican wins a majority of the independent vote. Although Republicans do well amongst independents, they do not do well amongst voters who identify as moderates.
Amongst the potential Republican candidates, moderates have the highest opinion of Romney, with a 26% favorability rating. However, moderates still prefer Obama to Romney 58 to 26%. Palin has the strongest conservative pull amongst her peers, with a 60% favorability rating.
This suggests that the majority of those who identity as independents or others are not traditional independents in the ideological center, rather they are right of center and in many cases far more conservative than Republicans.
“We could be seeing the beginnings of a realignment,” says Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “There could very well be new defining ideological divisions by the next presidential election.”
PPP surveyed 650 American voters from June 4th- 7th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
