Some devastating polls for Democrats By: Michael Barone Senior Political Analyst 05/26/10 3:43 PM EDT Back in 1994, I wrote a column for U.S. News arguing that Republicans had a serious chance to capture a majority of seats in the House of Representatives. The article appeared on the newsstands on July 11, and was the first article I’m aware of that suggested that Democrats might lose the majority they had held for 40 years. My argument was based on a number of polls showing Democratic incumbents trailing Republican challengers. Usually House incumbents don’t trail challengers in polls at any point in the campaign, because they almost always start off better known. For an incumbent to trail in a poll is a sign of serious danger. Such signs abound for Democrats these days. For example, Republican Jim Renacci leads incumbent Democrat John Boccieri 47%-36% in Ohio 16. Boccieri won this district, which had been held by Republicans since 1950, by a 55%-44% margin in 2008. He switched from no to yes on the health care bill in March 2010. That doesn’t seem to have helped.
Another late switcher on health care, Steve Driehaus of Ohio 1, is also trailing. From my colleague David Freddoso comes the news of a poll by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies showing Republican former Congressman Steve Chabot leading Democratic incumbent Steve Driehaus 53%-39%. Driehaus was one of the “Stupak five” who said they wouldn’t support a health care bill that funded abortion but who turned around and provided the key votes that passed the bill March 21. The result is very similar to a poll conducted in January for the liberal blog Fire Dog Lake showing Chabot leading Driehaus 56%-39%.
Meanwhile, Scott Rasmussen reports that Republican Rick Berg leads 18-year incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy 52%-43%. This is the fourth straight Rasmussen poll in which Berg has led Pomeroy.
And here’s a shocker from a governor race. According to Rasmussen, Republican Chris Dudley leads Democrat John Kitzhaber for governor of Oregon 45%-44%. That’s not statistically significant, but it’s a lot different from Kitzhaber’s winning margins of 51%-42% in 1994 and 64%-30% in 1998. The last time a Republican was elected governor of Oregon was 1978
