May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers increased in May, a sign the biggest part of the economy is helping strengthen the expansion. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose to 73.3 from 72.2 in April. The gauge was projected to rise to 73.5, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.
Employers last month added the most workers in four years, indicating an improving job market may keep bolstering spending that accounts for 70 percent of the economy. Another report today showed retail sales rose in April for the seventh consecutive month, helped by companies such as Macy’s Inc., as the recovery broadened.
“The labor market is becoming an increasing point of optimism for the consumer,” Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, said before the report. “A decrease in unemployment will be beneficial to growth, though the process will be slow.”
Estimates for the Reuters/University of Michigan measure ranged from 70 to 80, according to the Bloomberg survey of 72 economists.
The gauge of current conditions, which reflects Americans’ perceptions of their financial situation and whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, rose to 81.1 in May from 81 the prior month.
The index of consumer expectations for six months from now, which more closely projects the direction of consumer spending, increased to 68.3, the highest in three months, from 66.5.
Consumers in the survey said they expect an inflation rate of 3.1 percent over the next 12 months, compared with 2.9 percent in the previous report.
Over the next five years, the figures tracked by Federal Reserve policy makers, Americans expected a 2.9 percent rate of inflation, up from 2.7 percent in the previous month.
Retail Sales
Retail sales climbed in April for a seventh straight month, the Commerce Department said today. The 0.4 percent gain followed a 2.1 percent jump in March and was led by automobile dealers and building-material stores.
Macy’s, the second-biggest U.S. department-store chain, reported a profit in the quarter ended May 1 after sales accelerated. The Cincinnati-based retailer maintained its earnings forecast for the year, citing economic uncertainty.
“We just don’t want to get ahead of ourselves,” Chief Financial Officer Karen Hoguet said on a conference call with analysts and investors on May 12. “While the economy is getting stronger, it is unclear how strong it really is. We do expect to have more visibility in the back half of the year.”
Employment Gains
Payrolls jumped 290,000 in April after a 230,000 gain the prior month, Labor Department figures showed on May 7. The jobless rate rose to 9.9 percent, the highest level this year.
Unemployment will end the year at 9.4 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey taken from April 29 to May 10. Economists surveyed raised their forecasts for consumer spending and economic growth as the U.S. becomes less dependent on government stimulus.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index last week had its biggest weekly retreat since the start of the bull market in March 2009 on concern that the debt crisis in Europe may intensify. Markets have recovered on optimism the turmoil will ease after European leaders announced an almost $1 trillion financial aid package.
