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Title: Kentucky Derby Preview
Source:
Brisnet
URL Source: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=18352
Published: Apr 30, 2010
Author: Staff
Post Date: 2010-04-30 21:58:28 by Fred Mertz
Keywords: None
Views: 5390
Comments: 30
bgcolor=#808080 > Phone: (800)354-9206 TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS LOOKIN AT LUCKY ZITO NICHOLAS P MARTINEZ W AMERICAN LION MAKER MICHAEL J ROSARIO JOEL ZITO NICHOLAS P MARAGH RAJIV AMOSS THOMAS M DOMINGUEZ R A A full field of 20 three-year-olds will travel 1 1/4-miles in the most prestigious event for sophomores, the $2 million Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs. This particular field presents a huge challenge to handicappers as there is not much separation between most of this field, not to mention the horses that have run primarily on turf and/or synthetic ovals. We'll look to a pair of Hall of Fame conditioners to challenge for the win in this one. We think that the Bob Baffert-trained CONVEYANCE (Indian Charlie) is the fleetest horse in the field and could crush the dreams of many in here who like to be on or just off the early tempo beneath Martin Garcia. A winner of his first four starts, the swift sophomore suffered his first defeat in the Sunland Park Derby (G3) last out when trying to get nine panels. While the added ground will not be easy for him to negotiate, his conditioner did admit he had not trained him hard enough prior to his last, and we trust that the silver-haired Hall of Famer will have this one cranked up from the opening bell. If Conveyance thrives over the expected wet oval and establishes a sensible early tempo, we like his chances to lead all the way. DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) gives trainer D. Wayne Lukas his biggest chance to pick up his fifth Derby winner in some time, and we think the long-striding Kentucky-bred could be the one with some luck. Winner of the Hopeful S. (G1) at two, the improving chestnut has had a productive if unspectacular campaign to date, showing a nice turn of foot in placing in a trio of graded events in Arkansas. We're not thrilled how the three-year-old performed in his lone start here when seventh in the Iroquois S. (G3), but his recent drills have been useful and he should be peaking for this one. Terry Thompson retains the mount atop the chestnut. LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike), the likely favorite when the gate opens, exits a troubled third in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) but doesn't lose any respect from us even though he got buried on the rail for this race. The champion showed his versatility when getting up late in the Rebel S. (G2) in his sophomore debut and is as battle-tested as any in the field. We're not positive that the colt wants 1 1/4 miles, and we'd have preferred to see him to have one more prep readying for this, but maybe we're just nitpicking. The consistently great bay is an obvious win contender beneath Garrett Gomez. AWESOME ACT (Awesome Again) made a sensational three-year-old debut for European conditioner Jeremy Noseda, waxing an overmatched field in the Gotham S. (G3) despite being under stout restraint for much of the contest by Julien Leparoux, and a repeat of that showing would make him a prime threat in this one. The intriguing chestnut drew well in the 16 post and has reportedly trained well over this oval. The well-bred chestnut should get a great trip and wouldn't surprise with his best. Multiple stakes hero JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil) has never finished worse than second in his career and must be commended for his consistency while facing stakes foes in seven straight attempts. The moderately-bred dynamo really got our attention when holding second in the Wood Memorial S. (G1) last out after a stretch-long duel with a top contender in this field. We have no idea if the Florida-bred can handle this trip, but we can say the same about every horse in the field so we can't use that as a reason for disliking him. The hard-trying youngster is a top-three player in our estimation with Mike Smith. AMERICAN LION (Tiznow) has grown on us in recent days and we'll use him in our multi-race plays with pilot David Flores. A highly regarded juvenile when winning the Hollywood Prevue S. (G3) in November, the WinStar homebred seemed to lose favor with many after a pair of losses but returned in a big way in his dirt debut last out, wiring the Illinois Derby (G3) field and earning a 101 BRIS Speed number. The Eoin Harty trainee could be very dangerous with clear sailing. SUPER SAVER (Maria's Mon) is a Grade 2 winner on the oval, is bred to handle a route of ground as well as most in the field, and should be rounding into a peak race for Todd Pletcher, so we'll use him in a bunch of our wagers. Second in the Arkansas Derby (G2) last out, the steady dark bay has good positional speed but rated kindly in his last and stayed on late -- a race which should set him up nicely for this. The presence of Calvin Borel, who has bagged two of the last three runnings of this race, shouldn't hurt the WinStar homebred. PADDY O'PRADO (El Prado [Ire]) has reportedly been training up a storm over the Churchill oval and could be a sleeper in this field for Dale Romans. The late-developing gray has finished in the top three in five consecutive races, taking the grassy Palm Beach S. (G3) two back prior to a runner-up showing in the Blue Grass S. (G1). We wish we had more dirt racing to judge this colt on, but we'll put him on the contenders' list, nonetheless. Kent Desormeaux has the assignment. DEVIL MAY CARE (Malibu Moon) rebounded from a poor effort in the Silverbulletday S. (G3) to dominate the Bonnie Miss S. (G2) last out for trainer Todd Pletcher, and the highly thought of miss must be at least considered in this spot. The Grade 1 heroine is being ambitiously placed in here in our view, as we're not sure if she would be our pick in the Friday feature, the Kentucky Oaks (G1). But since we can't separate this field much, we would not be floored if she toppled her 19 male counterparts and gave her conditioner the trophy missing from his case. MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Unbridled's Song) is a lightly-raced colt who is hard for us to gauge, so we'll throw him in the contenders' bag in this ultra-competitive event. Trained by Pletcher, the improving Kentucky-bred ran his best late in his Louisiana Derby (G2) conquer and could be peaking. We haven't been on the gray's bandwagon at all this season, so we'll probably leave him off our tickets even if we're not shocked if he upsets this group. Rajiv Maragh keeps the mount. We're not sure if Risen Star S. (G2) star DISCREETLY MINE (Mineshaft) wants to run longer, or is a cut below and somewhat one-paced, but we'll probably toss him in our multi-race plays just in case. The well-bred colt has never run poorly and is seemingly always well placed, so if he were to take the lead at some point in this event, we would not be surprised. Javier Castellano will be in the irons for Pletcher. Grade 1 hero SIDNEY'S CANDY (Candy Ride [Arg]) has smoked his way through the Golden State and would likely be a clear favorite if he hadn't spent his entire career on synthetic surfaces to this point for Southern California's top trainer, John Sadler. The speedy colt has run three fields in succession off their respective hooves, and he could simply be that good, but he was done no favors when drawing widest of all in this field. We expect him to have trouble for much of this race while trying to rate and run on dirt for the first time. Joe Talamo has the return engagement. Florida Derby (G1) upsetter ICE BOX (Pulpit) hails from the dangerous Nick Zito barn and should be rolling late beneath Jose Lezcano. The progressive chestnut is bred to run all day and might get a cozy, ground-saving trip from the two post, but we simply don't like the fact that he will have to pass nearly every horse in the field to win this. Rising star LINE OF DAVID (Lion Heart) would not be denied in the recent Arkansas Derby (G1), the richest race preceding the Kentucky Derby (G1) for sophomores, and he's rolled to three straight wins since adding blinkers. The John Sadler pupil has won each of his races in front-running fashion and could find it busy up top today, but if the Kentucky-bred gets a sensible trip on or just off the pace, we think he could be a major player inside the final furlong. Breeders Futurity (G1) winner NOBLE'S PROMISE (Cuvee) finished off the board for the first time when fifth in the Arkansas Derby last out for conditioner Ken McPeek. The bay colt is a big question mark to excel at ten panels and we're not sure if he's coming into this in peak form, so we'll let him beat us on top. Willie Martinez will be up. STATELY VICTOR (Ghostzapper) ran away to a 4 1/4-length win in the Blue Grass most recently to earn his way in the field, but his prior dirt form leaves something to be desired. We may be underestimating the improving bay, but we have to take a stand somewhere. Alan Garcia will be in the irons. HOMEBOYKRIS (Roman Ruler) is being asked to do a lot in here and we simply can't see him doing more than being an early factor due to his being fresh with one start in 2010. The Grade 1 hero had an excellent two-year-old season but hasn't shown much this campaign and must be omitted. DEAN'S KITTEN (Kitten's Joy) earned his way here via a tally in the Lane's End S. (G2) for conditioner Mike Maker. The chestnut Kentucky-bred was defeated by 33 3/4-lengths in his lone dirt start to date and can't be endorsed by us with Robby Albarado in the saddle. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (Bernstein) is another with no dirt form in this field but did show a fine turn of foot when bagging the Pasadena S. on the lawn two prior. The problem is this race is not on grass. Joel Rosario will guide the longshot. BACKTALK (Smarty Jones) sports low BRIS Speed numbers and is a huge question mark at the trip, so we won't include the Tom Amoss charge with Miguel Mena. 
editstaf@brisnet.com KENTUCKY DERBY (G1), 11TH-CD, $2,000,000, 3YO, 1 1/4M, 6:24 P.M. EDT, 5-1 PP HORSE TRAINER JOCKEY WT 1 BAFFERT BOB GOMEZ G K 126 2 ICE BOX LEZCANO JOSE 126 3 NOBLE'S PROMISE MCPEEK KENNETH G 126 4 SUPER SAVER PLETCHER TODD A BOREL C H 126 5 LINE OF DAVID SADLER JOHN W BEJARANO R 126 6 STATELY VICTOR MAKER MICHAEL J GARCIA A 126 7 HARTY EOIN FLORES D R 126 8 DEAN'S KITTEN ALBARADO R J 126 9 MAKE MUSIC FOR ME BARBA ALEXIS 126 10 PADDY O'PRADO ROMANS DALE DESORMEAUX K J 126 11 DEVIL MAY CARE PLETCHER TODD A VELAZQUEZ J R 121 12 CONVEYANCE BAFFERT BOB GARCIA MARTIN 126 13 JACKSON BEND SMITH M E 126 14 MISSION IMPAZIBLE PLETCHER TODD A 126 15 DISCREETLY MINE PLETCHER TODD A CASTELLANO J J 126 16 AWESOME ACT NOSEDA JEREMY LEPAROUX JULIEN 126 17 DUBLIN LUKAS D WAYNE THOMPSON T J 126 18 BACKTALK MENA M 126 19 HOMEBOYKRIS DUTROW RICHARD E 126 20 SIDNEY'S CANDY SADLER JOHN W TALAMO JOSEPH 126 TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS: 1st-CONVEYANCE 2nd-DUBLIN 3rd-LOOKIN AT LUCKY More Graded Previews: 
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#1. To: All (#0)
I hope this post shows properly. If not, go to the link above.
I have a friend who says horse races are rigged. I tell him he is full of it.
I don't think they are rigged in general. But, once in a blue moon I do. Big Brown's loss at the Belmont Stakes had to be rigged.
Thanks for posting this.
It's the war, stupid.
My first choice is #20 Sidney's Candy. I'll throw lesser money at #4 and #5. This race is pretty wide open so I won't be surprised by any result.
That horse seems like the real deal. It's surprising how many good ones have been owned by Jenny Craig.
It's the war, stupid.
Excellent job posting, I tried this year's ago at ElPee and had to use photobucket to make it happen. I'm really disinterested this year, rain, lackluster field and I haven't placed a bet since the Breeder's Cup. Haven't even gotten past #12 on the PP's and will place a token bet on the Derby ONLY, forget the rest of the card. You are absolutely correct about some races being fixed, but there's also "training patterns", faked workout numbers, the past use of bute and lasix, rabbits, etc. Too many to list. I've been very lucky and have known some real horse owners and bettors who are candid when they know you won't upset the apple cart. I was given some nice inside info from people at the track for more than just placing a $2 show bet.
How about celery stalks in the leg wraps. lol
It's the war, stupid.
GOOD LUCK TODAY!!!
Thank you! Are you going throw down any bets?
Sadly, no. Very few OTBs around here, plus I have oodles of work to do today. I do plan on watching the race, however. Sounds like it's a race for mudders.
I made my annual trip to OTB. Bet Line of David to win and played a tri-box of the 3 horses the author picked today.
Going now with Sidney's Candy...
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace
Okay...had to bet on both Sidney's Candy and Make Music For Me...
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace
Super Saver...should have known,...Calvin won me money last year...
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace
Good pick...
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace
Sorry about #20...I saw him take a bad step and I hope he's not hurt. He looked good for 3/4 of the race. Super Saver made my day...I came out ahead for a change. I can't believe Calvin won 3 of the last 4 Derbys. If his schedule permits he might work our colt next week.
I shouldn't post this, but... The bookie screwed up. I bet $20 to win and should have gotten $180 on Super Saver. They paid me (not me, I sent a runner down) $20 WPS...$328. The Catholic in me feels guilty...but. The runner is an honest Catholic too. I made it worth his time.
He came out too fast...no way I was expecting him to go from outside pole to #2 before the first turn. When I saw that I started rooting for #9.
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace
Don't spend it. Bookies figure out their misses pretty quickly.
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace
I didn't collect it...the good Catholic runner did.
HA..22rifle's next anti-Catholic screech: "Catholic Bookie Runners of Questionable Morals"...
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace
There were at least three folks taking bets yesterday, all at the same long table. I kicked in extra at the collection basket this morning.
Okay, I'm going to give away my handicapping secret on selecting #4. I purchased a pair of Derby Tickets last month and later sold them on e-bay...doubled my money. I looked closely at the artwork on the ticket and determined that the horse in the winner's circle was #4. Voila! So every derby attendee had the winner on their entry tickets. I wonder if this tidbit is common knowledge out there in the horse racing world. Of course with Calvin aboard instead of betting 5 or ten I dropped a $20 on him. Someone told me something similar happened when Barbaro #8 (I think) won. I think his number was on the Derby Day tee-shirt or something like that.
Naked Gun is on right now @ the scene where Franks says "I can't hear you...don't fire the gun while you're talking..."
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace
Now I know your first name. I had him as a sentimental name pick after one our good buddies got killed in an ATV wreck a little over a year ago. Plus I'm a big fan of his jockey Rafael Bejarano.
Any luck?
No, I had Conveyance because I stole the pick from Brisnet. The race bored me and I did the same thing Conveyance did, got the lead and stopped short of the finish. #12 was about where I stopped with the PPs. Thought I had a wire-to-wire possibility but I wasn't even paying much attention while the race was on. I have never been less excited about a triple crown race than this one. I hope my interest comes back for the Preakness.
Spoken like someone with a losing ticket...
#67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace
I'm looking forward to the Preakness. Calvin upped the ante by declaring that Super Saver is going to win the Triple Crown. I hope it sparks more interest in horse racing.
#2. To: Fred Mertz (#1)
#3. To: A K A Stone (#2)
(Edited)
#4. To: Fred Mertz (#0)
#5. To: mininggold (#4)
#6. To: Fred Mertz (#5)
My first choice is #20 Sidney's Candy.
#7. To: Fred Mertz (#1)
#8. To: reaganisright (#7)
You are absolutely correct about some races being fixed, but there's also "training patterns", faked workout numbers, the past use of bute and lasix, rabbits, etc. Too many to list.
#9. To: Fred Mertz (#5)
#10. To: Suzanne (#9)
#11. To: Fred Mertz (#10)
Are you going throw down any bets?
#12. To: Fred Mertz (#10)
#13. To: Bartcoprules (#12)
#14. To: Fred Mertz (#10)
#15. To: Fred Mertz (#10)
#16. To: Fred Mertz (#5)
I'll throw lesser money at #4 and #5.
#17. To: Bartcoprules, war, Suzanne, mininggold (#12)
#18. To: war (#16)
Good pick...
#19. To: Fred Mertz (#17)
(Edited)
He looked good for 3/4 of the race.
#20. To: Fred Mertz (#18)
(Edited)
#21. To: war (#20)
#22. To: Fred Mertz (#21)
(Edited)
#23. To: war (#22)
#24. To: war, mininggold (#16)
I'll throw lesser money at #4 and #5.
#25. To: Fred Mertz (#24)
(Edited)
#26. To: Bartcoprules (#12)
Bet Line of David to win
#27. To: reaganisright (#7)
Haven't even gotten past #12 on the PP's and will place a token bet on the Derby ONLY, forget the rest of the card.
#28. To: Fred Mertz (#27)
#29. To: reaganisright (#28)
#30. To: reaganisright (#28)
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