April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Even after the biggest rally since the 1930s, U.S. stocks remain the cheapest in two decades as the economy improves. Profit estimates for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies from Apple Inc. to Intel Corp. and CSX Corp. climbed 9.1 percent on average in April through the end of last week, twice the gain in their prices and the largest monthly increase since at least 2006, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The benchmark gauge for American equities is trading at 14.2 times forecasts for its companies’ earnings, lower than any time since 1990, except for the months after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed.
Income is beating analysts’ estimates by 22 percent in the first quarter, making investors even more bullish that the rally will continue after the index climbed 80 percent since March 2009. While bears say the economy’s recovery is too weak for earnings to keep up the momentum, Fisher Investments and BlackRock Inc. are snapping up companies whose results are most tied to economic expansion.
“The stock market is incredibly inexpensive,” said Kevin Rendino, who manages $11 billion in Plainsboro, New Jersey, for BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager. “I don’t know how the bears can argue against how well corporations are doing.”
S&P 500 companies may earn $85.96 a share in the next year, according to data from equity analysts compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with the index’s record combined profits of $89.93 a share from the prior 12 months in September 2007, when the S&P 500 was 19 percent higher than today.
Record Pace
The earnings upgrades come as income beats Wall Street estimates at the fastest rate ever for the third time in four quarters. More than 80 percent of the 173 companies in the S&P 500 that reported results have topped estimates, compared with 79.5 percent in the third quarter and 72.3 percent in the three- month period before that, Bloomberg data show.
The S&P 500 rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,217.53 at 10:05 a.m. in New York. The gauge increased 2.1 percent last week as new-home sales surged the most since 1963, recovering from the April 16 rout when the Securities and Exchange Commission said it was suing New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. for fraud. The index is up 9.2 percent for 2010, the largest gain in the world’s 15 biggest equity markets, Bloomberg data show.
While analysts are raising estimates, they’re not boosting investment ratings. Companies ranked “buy” make up 30 percent of all U.S. equities, the data show. That compares with 45 percent in September 2007, a month before the S&P 500 reached its record high of 1,565.15 and began a 17-month plunge that erased $11 trillion from the value U.S. shares.
Easier to Adjust
“It’s been easier for analysts to adjust their earnings estimates than to aggressively put forth strong ‘buy’ recommendations,” said Keith Wirtz, who oversees $18 billion as chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management Inc. in Cincinnati. “It may be a reflection of concern about the resilience of earnings in 2011 and beyond.”
Companies are losing the benefit of a weaker dollar after the currency appreciated 9.5 percent since November against a basket of six trading partners, according to the Dollar Index from Atlanta-based IntercontinentalExchange Inc. A rising currency cuts demand for American exports and reduces overseas revenue when converted back to dollars.
Abercrombie & Fitch Co., the New Albany, Ohio-based teen retailer, warned the rally may weaken its profitability, according to a March 10 conference call. Westport, Connecticut- based Terex Corp., the world’s third-biggest maker of construction equipment, said in an April 21 earnings release that currency swings may reduce revenue. Terex got 75 percent of 2009 sales outside the U.S., Bloomberg data show.
Alternate Valuation
David Rosenberg, chief economist of Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc., says U.S. stocks are poised for losses because they’ve become too expensive. The S&P 500 is valued at 22.1 times annual earnings from the past 10 years, according to inflation-adjusted data since 1871 tracked by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller.
