April 14 (Bloomberg) -- The amount of diesel fuel bought using credit cards at U.S. truck stops increased in March to the highest level in more than a year, indicating the recovery is broadening beyond manufacturing. The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, which measures fuel consumption, rose 1 percent last month to reach the highest level since September 2008, a report yesterday showed. The gauge has increased every month since November with the exception of February, when East Coast blizzards hampered travel.
Truck tonnage, which accounts for 68 percent of freight transported in the U.S., increased on a year-over-year basis in February for a third straight month, a separate report from the American Trucking Associations showed. Companies such as Con-Way Inc. are benefiting from inventory rebuilding, increased exports and stronger sales.
“We’re climbing out of the hole,” Bob Costello, chief economist at the American Trucking Associations, said in an interview. “It is a moderate economic recovery and trucking is going to be like that as well.”
National truck tonnage was up 2.6 percent in February from a year earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, the group said March 26. Its index is up 7.7 percent since reaching a seven- year low in April 2009. The measure fell 8.7 percent in 2009, the most in 27 years.
Manufacturing Rebound
The gains follow a rebound in manufacturing. A report from the Federal Reserve tomorrow is projected to show production at factories, mines and utilities climbed 0.7 percent in March, a ninth consecutive gain, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Sales at U.S. retailers climbed in March more than anticipated, Commerce Department figures showed today. Purchases increased 1.6 percent, the most in four months, compared with a 1.2 percent median increase forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists.
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index rose 7 percent in March from the same month in 2009 on a seasonally and work-day adjusted basis.
Douglas Stotlar, chief executive officer at Con-Way, said in an interview that there are days the San Mateo-California- based hauler is turning down as many as 145 load orders because of capacity constraints. The company started to see improvement in the third quarter, he said.
Surge in Demand
“A year ago, we were looking at downsizing the workforce and cost control,” Stotlar said in an interview. “Now the issues are how do you take advantage of an economy that appears to be rebounding, how do you take advantage of the surge in demand.”
Con-Way’s truckload volumes were up 30 percent in January and February from the same months in 2009, Stotlar said. The company is also seeing growth in its partial truckload business, where shipments from more than one customer are moved in one truck.
“It appears to be across both retail” and manufacturing, Stotlar said. “We are seeing multiple touch points that are verifying to us that the economy is definitely recovering.”
The number of trucking jobs in the U.S. has increased in three of the last five months, according to Labor Department data. Truck transportation companies added 1,000 workers in March.
Edward Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, said the report points to an economy that may have grown at a 4 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Such a pace is consistent with job gains, though not enough to help bring down the unemployment rate.
“I call it a frugal recovery,” Leamer said in an interview on April 12.
Growth Forecasts
Economists projected the economy expanded at a 3 percent rate from January through March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey earlier this month. The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its initial estimate of first-quarter growth on April 30.
The economy expanded at a 5.6 percent annual rate the last three months of 2009 and consumer spending rose at a 1.6 percent rate. Reports for the first two months of the year suggest spending is continuing to grow, with revenue at retailers rising as much as 10 percent from a year earlier, according to International Council of Shopping Centers estimates.
Ceridian says its monthly fuel consumption index includes millions of electronic payment transactions from more than 25,000 customers, reflecting over-the-road trucking companies and packaged-goods distribution businesses.
