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United States News Title: The fundamentals say Republicans on track to retake the House The cut and run stunt by Bart Stupak Friday underscored the fact that things are getting worse for the Democrats. Seeing an 18 year veteran who drew 65% in 2008 and was a sure thing, leave suddenly is a symptom of deep problems for the Democrats. There are several fundamental reasons for conservative optimism as we look toward the November elections. Historically mid term elections produce losses for the presidents party. In Clinton’s first mid term election ( 1994) Democrats lost 52 seat and control of the House. Reagan lost 26 Republicans in 1982 which was exactly on the historic average. Senate losses average 3.4 seats in these elections. While Clinton had a 48% and Reagan a 42% Gallup approval rating respectively at Election time Obama is already down to 45% in the same poll. Remember: “It’s the economy stupid!?” The same Gallup report tells us 19.9% of Americans are unemployed or under employed. People vote their wallet, this plus the accompanying data that Gallup’s “Economic confidence” rating is down sharply (-21) means the Democrats will get no help in improving their image from the Department of Labor. The Enthusiasm gap In 2006 and 2008 we saw the emergence of the “Broken glass” liberal voter, those who would crawl through broken glass to vote. That enthusiasm has moved to the conservatives. The latest CNN poll shows 55% of Republicans are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting in November while just 36% of Democrats said the same. A Democrat professor commenting on these numbers added that Black turn out in a mid term election could not be expected to be near their 2008 levels. Generic numbers The latest Rasmussen generic poll shows Republicans holding a very strong generic ballot lead overall at 47/38, but of still more importance Rasmussen found that among Independents Republicans are up 46/26. Intangibles In 1994 and 2006 there were driving issues like the House Bank Scandal and the Foley revelation. Both of these seem almost quaint compared to issues like Obamacare which has continued to lose voter support since he signed it. The Cap and Trade bill is similarly disliked. These will hurt the Democrats. The timing of the Medicare/Medicaid cuts ( September and October) will do enormous damage to them as well. The emergence of a stronger Internet to coordinate the efforts to overturn Obamacare and the Tenth Amendment to rally around are pluses not available to conservatives in the past. Both will be major weapons in the fight to regain the House. What did you do to support and defend American freedoms yesterday? What will you do today and tomorrow? The very life of American is in our hands. Let’s all stand up for our beloved America and be worthy of the name American. If not you and I, who will save America; the Democrats? Use this site to contact your Congressional Representative:
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