The Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) released new jobs data on Friday. According to the report, seasonally adjusted total nonfarm jobs rose 517,000 jobs, which was well above expectations. The words used by the media to describe the report included “stunner” and “wow.” President Joe Biden claimed the number proves his administration has delivered economic prosperity. The administration has also noted that in the official numbers, the unemployment rate is at a multidecade low. This, Biden and his supporters insist, proves the economy is remarkably strong. There are at least a few things going on that are problematic for this narrative, however. For one, the Fed is actively taking steps to reduce the money supply in an effort to slow price inflation. A second problem is that the federal government’s own numbers show that total employment actually fell in January. A third issue is the fact that what job growth exists is in part-time employment. Taking these together—and considering what they tell us about where we are in the current economic cycle—it’s very difficult to buy into any narrative that attempts to paint the economic situation as strong, much less “wow.”
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