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Title: Greece admits deficit figures were fudged to secure euro entry [2004 article]
Source: UK Independent
URL Source: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w ... -secure-euro-entry-533389.html
Published: Nov 16, 2004
Author: Daniel Howden and Stephen Castle
Post Date: 2010-02-25 11:16:49 by war
Keywords: None
Views: 1660
Comments: 2

Greece admitted yesterday that the budget figures it used to gain entry to the euro three years ago were fudged. The Finance Minister, George Alogoskoufis, said the true scale of Greece's budget deficit was massively understated enabling Athens to dip below the qualification bar and into the EU's single currency.

Greece admitted yesterday that the budget figures it used to gain entry to the euro three years ago were fudged. The Finance Minister, George Alogoskoufis, said the true scale of Greece's budget deficit was massively understated enabling Athens to dip below the qualification bar and into the EU's single currency.

"It has been proven that the deficit had not fallen below 3 per cent in every year since 1999," Mr Alogoskoufis told reporters.

The European Commission said there was no question of revisiting Greece's eurozone membership, but the row over budget figures has dealt another severe blow to the credibility of the single currency's battered rulebook, the Stability and Growth Pact.

A Commission spokesman, Gerassimos Thomas, said there could be no going back. "Greece's admission to the eurozone was done on the basis of the convergence report which was established at the time and on the basis of figures and the statistical methodology applied at that time. It wasn't in question at that time."

The Greek financial daily Naftemboriki said the corrected deficits for the crucial period from 1997 to 1999, when the country's economic data was scrutinised to decide on its eligibility for the eurozone, were 6.44 per cent, 4.13 per cent and 3.38 per cent respectively. The conservative government in Athens has placed the blame on its Socialist predecessors.

The confusion centres on what Mr Alogoskoufis alleges was the systematic misreporting of defence spending. Athens spread the financial burden of a multibillion-euro jet fighter contract across separate budgets but these accounting problems may not explain the size of the discrepancy.

The Pasok party, now the official opposition, has strenuously denied fiddling its way into the euro and accused the conservatives of playing politics with Greece's fiscal reputation.

Athens is already in the dock for breaking the central rule for eurozone nations: that their budget deficits should be below 3 per cent of GDP. Greece's current deficit is running at more than 5 per cent and with updated costs from the orgy of spending on this summer's Olympics still filtering through that figure seems set to rise. The total cost for the August Olympiad has been put at €9bn, (£6.3bn) nine times the amount spent by previous hosts Sydney.

Greece is expected to lodge revised budget data with Brussels showing it had broken the EU budget deficit limit every year since 2000. Athens is not alone in breaking the 3 per cent rule and persistent offenders France and Germany have escaped without suffering penalties.

EU finance ministers will discuss reforms to the pact at a meeting in Brussels today at which they will try to agree on the amount by which the Greek figures were inaccurate - a sum thought to be equivalent to about two percentage points of GDP per annum for four or five years. A decision on what to do about the Greek case is not due to be taken until the next meeting in December.

Greece's faulty figures have provoked a debate in Brussels over the power that should be given to the EU's statistical agency, Eurostat, to check financial data declared by governments. Big countries, including the UK, are resisting efforts to give the agency new, supervisory, powers over national statistical bodies.

They claim that problems have only been unearthed in smaller states, such as Greece and Portugal. "Just because there are one or two examples does not mean you have to up-end the entire statistical framework of member states," said one British official. "However the answer is to make the existing system work better not to give Eurostat control over national statistical agencies".

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#1. To: All (#0)

As I've been saying as well as for the dickweeds who ***think*** this has any applicability to the US...

Day 4 of Packrat refusing to register here. Day 2 Of Boofer The One Eyed Wonder Bot refusing to answer: When is Blackwell going to have the recount?

war  posted on  2010-02-25   11:17:27 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: All (#0)

The Euro's Greek tragedy
Publication: Business & Finance Magazine
Date: Saturday, December 19 2009

Countries like Greece can and do lie and manipulate to collect more EU funds. Europe should change the rules, writes Edin Mujagic.

AMSTERDAM - When the euro was introduced in 1999, European countries agreed that fiscal discipline was essential for its stability. While the common currency has benefited all countries that have adopted it - not least as an anchor in the current economic crisis - the failure of euro-zone members to abide by their agreement could yet turn the euro into a disaster.

Indeed, too many members simply behave as if there were no Stability and Growth Pact. The state of Greek public finances, for example, is "a concern for the whole euro zone," according to European Commissioner for Monetary Affairs loaquin Almunia. Greece's fiscal deficit is expected to reach 12.7% of GDP this year, far exceeding the SGP's 3%-of-GDP cap.

Of course, every euro-zone country is breaching the SGP's deficit ceiling as a result of the current crisis. But consider the Netherlands, which will do so this year for only the second time since 1999. When the Netherlands first exceeded the SGP limit - by only 0.1% of GDP - the government immediately took tough measures to rein in the deficit. Germany and Austria behaved the same way. Those countries are already worldng to reduce their crisis-inflated deficits as soon as possible.

Down in southern Europe, things look very different. Exceeding the SGP's deficit cap is the rule rather than the exception. Indeed, throughout the euro's first decade, Greece managed to keep within the SGP limits only once, in 2006 (and by a very narrow margin).

Moreover, the Greek government turned out to be untrustworthy. In 2004, Greece admitted that it had lied about the size of its deficit ever since 2000 - precisely the years used to assess Greece's application to join the euro zone. In other words, Greece qualified only by cheating. In November 2009, it appeared that the Greek government lied once again, this time about the deficit in 2008 and the projected deficit for 2009.

Italy also has a long history of neglecting European fiscal rules (as do Portugal and France). Like Greece, Italy was admitted to the euro zone despite being light-years away from meeting all the criteria. Public debt in both countries was well above 100% of GDP, compared to the SGP's threshold of 60% of GDP. Italy did not fulfill another criterion as well, as its national currency, the lira, did not spend the mandatory two years inside the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Ten years later, it seems as if time has stood still down south. Both the Greek and Italian public debt remain almost unchanged, despite the fact that both countries have benefited the most from the euro, as their long-term interest rates declined to German levels following its adoption. That alone yielded a windfall of tens of billions of euros per year. But it barely made a dent in their national debts, which can mean only one thing: massive squandering. That is evident from their credit ratings. Greece boasts by far the lowest credit rating in the euro zone. Standard & Poor's has put the already low A- rating under review for a possible downgrade. Fitch Ratings has cut the Greek rating to BBB+, the third-lowest investment grade. Indeed, those scores mean that Greece is much less creditworthy than for example Botswana and Malaysia, which are rated A+ .

What if Greece gets into so much trouble that it cannot service its debt? That is not impossible. According to calculations by Morgan Stanley, with relatively low longterm interest rates, Greece needs a primary surplus of at least 2.4% of GDP each year just to stabilize its national debt at 118% of GDP.

Cunent European rules prohibit other European countries or the EU itself from helping Greece. But recent history teaches us that European rules are made to be broken. Already, many (former) politicians and economists (no prizes for guessing whence they mostly hail) are proposing that the EU issue its own sovereign debt, which would alleviate the problems of countries such as Greece and Italy.

But such schemes would come at a high cost. They would punish fiscally pmdent governments, as interest rates would inevitably increase in countries like the Netherlands or Germany. Just a 0.1% increase in bonowing costs would mean hundreds of millions of euros in extra debt-service payments a year.

Moreover, even if the plan for EU sovereign debt never takes off, fiscally prudent euro-zone countries will face higher bonowing costs. As financial integration in Europe deepens, the lack of fiscal discipline in one or more euro-zone countries will push up interest rates throughout the currency area.

A member of the euro zone cannot be expelled under current rules, allowing countries like Greece to lie, manipulate, blackmail, and collect more and more EU funds. In the long term, this will be disastrous for greater European cooperation, because public support will wither.

Europe should therefore consider bearing the high short-term costs of changing the rules of the game. If expelling even one member could establish a more credible mechanism for guaranteeing fiscal discipline in the euro zone than the SGP and financial fines have proven to be, the price would be more than worth it.

Edin Mujagic is monetary economist at Tilburg University and advisor on European monetary affairs to ECR Research ltd. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009. www.project-syndicate.org Thought leader

Day 4 of Packrat refusing to register here. Day 2 Of Boofer The One Eyed Wonder Bot refusing to answer: When is Blackwell going to have the recount?

war  posted on  2010-02-25   11:20:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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