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Business Title: Consumer Confidence in U.S. Falls to 10-Month Low as Outlook for Jobs Dims Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers fell more than anticipated in February to the lowest level since April 2009 as the outlook for jobs diminished, a sign spending may be slow to gain traction as the economy recovers. The Conference Board’s confidence index declined to 46, below the lowest forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of economists, from a revised 56.5 in January, a report from the New York-based private research group showed today. Concerns about the economy and the labor market pushed an index of current conditions to its lowest in 27 years. Stocks extended losses and Treasuries gained after the report indicated a lack of job growth and impaired household finances threaten to restrain consumer spending. Without sustained growth in the biggest part of the economy, the expansion may be slow to gain momentum. The economy “may not be out of the woods,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York. Most of the deterioration “is labor market related. Consumer spending is going to disappoint throughout most of the year,” he said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.9 percent to 1,098.26 at 10:47 a.m. in New York. The 10-year Treasury note rose, pushing down the yield seven basis points to 3.73 percent. Economists forecast confidence would decrease to 55 from a previously reported 55.9 for January, according to the median of 68 projections in a Bloomberg survey. Estimates ranged from 50.9 to 59. Home-Price Index A separate report showed seasonally adjusted home prices rose in December for a seventh straight month. The S&P/Case- Shiller home-price index of 20 U.S. cities increased 0.3 percent. Compared with December 2008, prices fell 3.1 percent, the smallest year-over-year decline since May 2007. The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions decreased to 19.4 from 25.2 the prior month. The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful fell to 3.6 percent from 4.4 percent, according to the Conference Board. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get increased to 47.7 percent from 46.5 percent. The gauge of expectations for the next six months decreased to 63.8, the lowest since July 2009, from 77.3 the prior month. The proportion of people who expect their incomes to increase over the next six months declined to 9.5 percent from 11 percent. The share expecting more jobs in the next six months fell to 13.4 percent from 15.8 percent. Fed and Economy Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley last week indicated policy makers are more concerned about maintaining growth than they are about immediate inflation threats. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may deliver a similar message to Congress the next two days during his semi-annual report on the economy and interest rates. The U.S. lost 20,000 jobs last month after a 150,000 decline in December, according to Labor Department data released earlier this month. The unemployment rate is expected to average 9.8 percent this year, according to the median forecast of a Bloomberg survey taken early this month. A rise in initial jobless claims so far this year signals the labor market isn’t improving, said Ricchiuto. Initial jobless claims rose to 473,000 in the week ended Feb. 13, compared with 432,000 at the end of 2009, the lowest since July 2008. ‘Extremely Pessimistic’ “Consumers also remain extremely pessimistic about their income prospects,” Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center, said in a statement. “This combination of earnings and job anxieties is likely to continue to curb spending.” Stocks have declined this year, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.6 percent after gaining 23 percent in 2009. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, will grow 2 percent this year, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month. That would follow last year’s 0.6 percent decline, the worst showing since 1974. The world’s largest economy will expand 3 percent this year after shrinking 2.4 percent in 2009, according to the median forecast of economists. Retail Sales Retail sales in January rose for a third time in four months, a sign the recovery in spending continued into the new year. Sales last month increased 0.5 percent, the government said Feb. 12. Some retailers are becoming more optimistic. Lowe’s Cos., the second-largest U.S. home-improvement retailer, posted fourth-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ estimates after better-than-forecast sales signaled a recovery in the housing market. “While the psychological impact of falling home prices and an uncertain employment picture continue to weigh” on consumers, Americans are “gaining the confidence to take on more discretionary projects.” Robert Niblock, Lowe’s chief executive officer, said in a statement Feb. 22. “The worst of the economic cycle is likely behind us.”
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#1. To: Brian S (#0)
Ok...who are you and what have you done with Brian S, you fiend? lol
my anti groupie can't get through life without me.
Try as I might, some numbers are just to ugly to ignore...
The odd thing about consumer confidence is that it doesn't track well to anything other than holidays and weather...look at CC during the Clinton Administration...
Day 2 of Packrat refusing to register here.
I did a lot of posting of the CC numbers starting around 2005 and it seemed to accurately predict the looming(at that time) recession. Of course, those negative reports were immediately dismissed out of hand by the resident neocons while 'their boy' was in office. That said, one months reporting does not make a trend. The next report will be interesting, indeed.
Business Week has a good index which is a rolling survey and is published weekly but I gave up using CC a long time ago... It's funny that you chose 2005 tho because that was just before I threw in the towel on it...I thought that it was far too optimistic....
Day 2 of Packrat refusing to register here.
Yep.
my anti groupie can't get through life without me.
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