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Title: Obama as Reagan
Source:
Pollster.com
URL Source: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/obama_as_reagan.php
Published: Dec 06, 2009
Author: Pollster.com
Post Date: 2010-02-16 15:35:50 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 95
Comments: 4
Topics: Approval Ratings , Barack Obama , midterm , Ronald Reagan I've been struck for some time by the similarity of circumstance between Presidents Reagan and Obama. Both replaced deeply unpopular predecessors. Both enjoyed significant gains for their party in both houses of Congress. Both faced "worst since the depression" economic circumstances. And each in his own very different ways attempted to reshape government in the early months in office. With a bit more than 10 months of approval data on Obama, we can now make a more meaningful comparison than was possible at the first 100 days look. The similarity of approval trajectories is striking for Reagan and Obama. Reagan started lower, but since the 3rd month of office the two have moved along quite similar paths. Of the ten post-war presidents in the chart, Reagan and Obama currently stand as the two lowest at this point in their first term. (Clinton fell lower early, but was recovering at this point before another decline and rise.) Reagan finished as the second lowest just before his midterm in 1982, ahead of only Truman. It happens that the economy under Reagan also bottomed out in November 1982, the worst possible time for the president and his party. (I exclude Johnson because of his entry into office after Kennedy's midterm and Ford because he took office just 3 months before the 1974 mid-term. I keep Truman because he assumed the presidency very early in Roosevelt's fourth term, effectively serving the full term.) Whether Obama continues to look like Reagan seems to me more likely to be driven by the same force-- the economy. While health care reform and Afghanistan will surely play a role in the public's view of Obama, I think the economy remains the most crucial driver of opinion. In this the administration can hope that the upturn in GDP in the third quarter, and the small down-tick in unemployment in November, are signals that the early quarters of 2010 will see further improvements. If so, the Democrats may avoid the terrible conjunction of midterm and economic bottom that cost Republicans 26 seats in the 1982 House elections. And President Obama may not compete with Reagan to see which will be the second most unpopular president at midterm time. But there are no guarantees of this and the parallels remain quite striking.
Charles Franklin | December 6, 2009
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#1. To: Brian S (#0)
rotflmao!
my anti groupie can't get through life without me.
Note that he is laughing at points previously made by him...
It was tough finding work in 81 and 82. I was working two jobs, putting my way through the police academy back then. Badeye posted on 2010-01-22 16:18:25 ET Reply Trace Private Reply Obama is the smartest man ever to hold the office of POTUS. How can he be compared to Reagan?
Day after day, Yeah,and I am commonly mistaken for Tom Selleck.
"I adore John McCain, support him 100 percent and will do everything I can to support his reelection. As everyone knows, I was honored and proud to run with him. And Todd and I were with him in D.C. just a week ago." (Sarah Palin,Dec 2009) ************************************ DID Palin say or write these things or not? (Me) I don't know or F ing care. (Mad Dog posted on 2009-12-26 16:36:33 ET,post # 105 http://libertysflame.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=5510&Disp=114#C114)
#2. To: Badeye, go65, Brian S. (#1)
#3. To: Brian S (#0)
Alone on a hill,
The man with the foolish grin is keeping perfectly still
But nobody wants to know him,
They can see that he's just a fool,
And he never gives an answer,
But the fool on the hill
#4. To: The Fool On The Hill (#3)
Obama is the smartest man ever to hold the office of POTUS.
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