Trump to Win Landslide in 2020
Statistical models point that way.
By Goethe Behr
June 11, 2020
Donald Trump has faced massive criticism for four years. It seemed that the Access Hollywood tape would destroy him. More recently, his former staff members have spoken for the first time. There’s an organized traditional Republican anti-Trump group, called the Lincoln Project, already running ads against him. And while Republicans in Congress don’t dare to speak against him, one did: Sen. Lisa Murkowski, of Alaska. She says she’s not sure she can vote for him.
That would ordinarily be bad news for an incumbent. People think presidents are always re-elected, but it’s not a sure thing. Less than 50 years ago, we had two incumbent presidents defeated, back- to-back: Ford and Carter. JFK didn’t get a second term, of course. Nor did Nixon. LBJ decided not to run. In fact, we had a string of five one-term presidents: JFK, LBJ, NIXON, FORD, CARTER. GHW Bush also lost his second run. Also, we’ve never had three consecutive 8- year presidents, so it might seem that the odds are against Trump.
But in it’s Capitol Report, MarketWatch says Trump is a shoo-in.
According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close. In fact, his Electoral College victory could very well be wider than the 304-227 margin he enjoyed over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
Since 1980, Moody’s has managed to nail the outcome every time but once — like many, it didn’t see Trump coming. . .
The team takes into account how consumers feel about their finances, the performance of the stock market SPX, -0.44% and their job prospects. Essentially, today, they’re feeling pretty good. . . Moody’s uses three models to come up with its forecast. In each case, Trump gets at least 289 Electoral College votes. . .
The “pocketbook” measure, which focus on how people feel about their money situation, is where Trump shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes. . . The stock-market model gives him the slightest edge of 289-249, as investors continue to navigate a volatile investing landscape. Then there’s the unemployment model, which leans heavily in his favor at 332-206.
Of course, that report was before the Covid-19 crisis, but the stock market has already recovered, with rallies that seem to be pushing the Dow to 3,000 or above. Meanwhile, surveys have shown that most people think they’ll get their jobs back soon, so the “pocketbook” and “unemployment” models should be on his side, too.
OK, that may be “old news,” but in a report from just a few days ago, reported in Britain’s Express a bible scholar agrees that Trump will win easily.
Donald Trump has faced harsh criticism for his handling of the coronavirus crisis with many polls giving the US President disapproval ratings above 50 percent. But a Bible expert who claims to have correctly predicted Mr Trump’s shock election in 2016 believes the US President faces another term in the White House. . .
I along with a few others did predict Donald J Trump would win the 2016 American election when no one else thought it was a remote possibility.”
According to Professor [Tom] Meyer, Donald Trump will win the 2020 US election in an “epic landslide”. . . He said: “America will then continue its advancement into a golden age of unparalleled wealth and power, the likes of which the world hasn’t seen since the Roman Empire.”
The Bible expert went on to say President Trump will “make America great again” and secure the legacy of his dynasty, with his daughter Ivanka Trump becoming the first female President of the US.
Prof. Meyer says that the Trump name will be synonymous with “Caesar,” with future leaders using the title, as we saw in Germany (“Kaiser” is the German version of Caesar), and Czar in Russia.
Earlier, Steve Bannon forecast that Trump would win with 400 electoral votes.
A win of such magnitude would better Trump’s 2016 win by almost 100 electoral college votes; the Republican in 2016 gained 304 votes to his rival Hillary Clinton’s 227 votes.
That was a few years ago, but Bannon repeated the claim this year.
There are a number of models that point to a Trump landslide, according to Politico.
Models maintained by economists and market strategists like Luskin tend to ignore election polls and personal characteristics of candidates. Instead, they begin with historical trends and then build in key economic data including growth rates, wages, unemployment, inflation and gas prices to predict voting behavior and election outcomes.
Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered this kind of modeling, also shows Trump winning by a fair margin in 2020 based on the economy and the advantage of incumbency. . .
Luskin’s current model — which looks at GDP growth, gas prices, inflation, disposable income, tax burden and payrolls — has Trump winning by a blowout margin of 294 electoral votes. . . Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and a regular Trump critic, has been road-testing a dozen different economic models for the 2020 race. At this point, Trump wins in all 12 — and quite comfortably in most of them.
Forbes says, specifically, that Trump will win, despite Covid-19.
Yes despite the dire state of the economy Trump’s latest approval rating is still at a robust 49% for the period May 1 -13, according to Gallup.
At the same time in their presidencies George W Bush and Barrack Obama both had approval ratings of 47%, which is slightly lower than Trump’s. Yet both those presidents went on to win a second term in office.
All those forecasts are in the standard mode. But Real Clear Politics (RPC) came up with a shocking possibility: Trump could lose the popular vote in a landslide, and still stay in office.
If the election were held today, these polls indicate that Trump would lose by 10 million to 15 million popular votes – a margin even greater than the crushing defeat of Jimmy Carter by Ronald Reagan in 1980. But, unlike Carter, Trump would have about an even chance of winning a majority of electoral votes and becoming president. . .
in the 21st century, two of three presidents have been elected without winning the popular vote: George W. Bush in the tight race of 2000 and Trump, who received 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton (causing him to change his mind about the Electoral College’s threat to democracy).
As we have noted elsewhere, Trump won in 2016 with just 31 percent of registered voters. That’s 19 percent of the people, as a whole. It’s because our current system focuses all the attention on a few swing states. As RCP notes, “In 2016, some 94% of candidate events in the general election occurred in just 12 battleground states. Their citizens, who comprise a fifth of the U.S. population, determine who will be president.”
All this is to say, for all the glee on the Democratic side, Trump could still win in a landslide—or even win by losing by a landslide!
Goethe Behr is a Contributing Editor and Moderator at Election Central. He started out posting during the 2008 election, became more active during 2012, and very active in 2016. He has been a political junkie since the 1950s and enjoys adding a historical perspective.
Poster Comment:
apocalpyse
apocalpyse
apocalpyse
apocalpyse
