[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Underreported Data Suggests Victory for GOP in PA Suburbs

Well these images show US ship, helicopter and plane activity days and hours before the first explosion.

Macron will think twice about insulting Italy from now on.

America’s military and our country won’t survive if wokeism continues to rule

What Trump Gets Right about Harvard

The wesT has no viable opTions ... shorT of nuclear war --- of defeaTing Russia in Ukraine

Who’s our real president? Joe Biden — or the staffers who keep walking back his comments?

Flint, Mich. Clerk Resigns After Elections Group Calls Out Lopsided Number Of Democrat Poll Watchers

China Recruited Top US Scientists To Gain Military Edge In Hypersonic, UAV & Submarine Tech – Reports

Pete Kaliner: Former EcoHealth VP says they developed COVID-19

Biden’s FBI is no beTTer Than ... The worsT miliTanT police enTiTies --- in hisTory

U.S Military Recruitment video. Woke Homos

The Latino vote in Nevada could lead to a Republican Senate majority

DeSantis Moves to Prohibit Communist China From Buying Farmland, Land Around Military Bases

Trump haTers who said ... “his supporTers" --- "musT be exTerminaTed”

'I'm NoT Bluffing' - Vladimir PuTin ... Warns The WesT --- He Is Willing To Use Nuclear Weapons

Democrats are blind to the dangers the illegal migrants they invite in face

Crazed NorTh DakoTa Man ... Runs Over - Kills Teen --- For “ExTremisT” Republican Views

WWIII - The DemocraTs’ ulTimate weT dream ... JusT imagine - marTial law wiTh DemocraTs ruling over us --- wiTh an iron-fisT

By transporting migrants, GOP governors are exposing Democrats’ hypocrisy

Release Biden’s secret voter plan

Nikki Haley: I won’t stand for liberal intimidation from Tish James or her office

Facebook spied on private messages of Americans who questioned 2020 election

Progressives, Journalists Worry: Are Polls Once Again Overestimating Democrats?

Crime Runs Rampant In Democrat Strongholds, With Shootings, Beheading Last Weekend

Biden Quietly Loosens Tech Export Rules to Chinese Communist Firms Just Days After Huawei Lobbyist’s Brother Joins White House.

Now it's a majority of voters who want Biden impeached!

Bank of America's Equity: Racial Discrimination, Elitism, Fraud, and Bad Business

NUKE ALERT - ‘DirecT ThreaT’ ... Russia could use TacTical nuclear weapons in Ukraine --- Taking us To brink of WW3 - warns miliTary chief

Special Master Order Reveals Biden’s Direct Involvement In Trump Raid And Six Other Bombshells

DemocraTs ... Dangerously Copy The TacTics --- Of Famous FascisTs

TIPP Poll Asks: Does America Have A Two-Tier Justice System?

FBI agent Timothy Thibault hid intel from whistleblower on Hunter and the ‘Big Guy’ Joe Biden

Biden’s open border is attracting a huge new category of illegal migrants

Inmates received $1.3 billion in covid-19 stimulus checks, including those serving life sentences

China’s Forced Organ Harvesting Demands U.S. Response

Studies Show ... ThaT Covid “Vaccines” --- Cause Massive Blood Damage

Zuckerberg’s Admission Of FBI Meddling In 2020 Election Is Even Bigger Than It Seems

Redacted Mar-A-Lago Affidavit Confirms Biden’s DOJ Fished For A Crime To Pin On Trump

Remember The People's Convoy (Feb 2022)

EveryThing abouT The raid ... The case being builT by The DeparTmenT of JusTice --- reeks of sloppiness - desperaTion.

Unsealed Mar-a-Lago search warrant affidavit reveals the government has no case against Trump

Wave of lawsuits coming against psychiatrists and doctors who rubber-stamped transgender mutilations and surgeries

CONFIRMED: FBI Colluded With Big Tech To Prevent Voters From Learning About Hunter Biden’s Laptop

With IRS Funding, Democrats Plan to Audit the Middle Class

Biden’s 87,000 IRS Agents Set to Become Woke Army of “Equity” Enforcers

My husband Capt. David Dorn was murdered in 2020 riots. His killer had help dividing America.

The ReTurn of PeTer STrzok ... How a Fired FBI Official Is Making The Case --- AgainsT Himself

Parents and the left are in an all-out war, and the kids are collateral damage

Mar-a-Lago ... The --- Abyss


Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

How To
See other How To Articles

Title: Get Rid of Your Thinking Errors
Source: [None]
URL Source: [None]
Published: Jan 7, 2016
Author: Joachim I Krueger Ph.D.
Post Date: 2020-04-08 12:51:37 by Gatlin
Keywords: None
Views: 351
Comments: 2

Get Rid of Your Thinking Errors
Lift the veil of illusion and live well.

You think poorly. This is the message that has emerged from decades of research in cognitive and social psychology. The honing and tuning of this message owes much to Danny Kahneman who tirelessly professes not wanting to denigrate human intelligence only then to proceed to do just that. His 2011 book Thinking, fast and slow was a whopping success. Why? Part of the reason is that Kahneman writes well, so well that your cognitive illusions he wants you to know about leap from the page. You do not need to deploy statistical or logical reasoning to understand his point that you stink at statistical and logical reasoning. The ploy of showing you your cognitive illusions and making you pay for it has become a fabulous business plan. Dan Ariely, Dan Gilbert, and Marzu Bánaji, among others, have made handsome profits from telling you how dense you are. Their success proves them right, not just pragmatically, but literally. Another reason for the message’s popularity is your psychological masochism. It hurts so good when your stupidity is exposed and you are led to imagine how awesome your life will be when your rationality is unleashed. A less appetizing possibility is that you appreciate the message of stupidity, but think it applies to others out on the street, but not to you. This would be an example of self-enhancement or overconfidence, phenomena that feature prominently on the list of cognitive sins. Many people are happy to believe that others are biased or otherwise cognitively compromised but they themselves are surely not. So there’s a market.

Along comes Rolf Dobelli, a Swiss novelist and amateur psychologist who published Die Kunst des klaren Denkens (2012), translated as The art of thinking clearly (2013) in our language. Rolf’s book is a list. Can you believe it? The book is a list of 99 thinking errors, each described vividly on a couple of pages and accompanied by an admonition not to make it. 99! He couldn’t think of a hundredth? The book is literally a list. It has no narrative arc, though there is an informative epilogue. Each item/thinking error was published previously in a periodical; the book is a collection. There seems to have been no editing, not even an attempt to give some structure to the material. One could have sorted the material so that the social (e.g., conformity, authority, perceived similarity), the statistical (e.g. regression, selective sampling, base rates), and the egocentric errors (e.g., introspection, affect, dissonance) come in thematic sections. No such luck. Dobelli imposes on you the burden of categorization. Given what he says about your ability to do that, he was apparently not assuming you would.

So what is Dobelli trying to accomplish besides making money by insulting the audience? The meta-message he wants to convey more im- than explicitly is that there is no positive theory of how to think well – or else he would tell you about it – being an honorable man. No, according to Dobelli and his intellectual ilk (Gilbert, Ariely, Banaji et alii), there is only a science of poor thought, and to think well is to not think poorly. It is a negative definition of thinking. You’ll be fine if you don’t commit any of the 99 fallacies that are waiting for you. “Eliminate” – Dobelli writes – “the downside, the thinking errors, and the upside will take care of itself. This is all we need to know” (pp. 299-300). But how do we know when there is an error in need of elimination? Dobelli himself talks about chauffeur knowledge in chapter 10 (Don’t take news anchors seriously), asking you to distinguish ‘real’ knowledge from ‘chauffeur’ knowledge. “Do not,” he oracles, “confuse the company spokesperson, the ringmaster, the newscaster, the schmoozer, the verbiage vendor, or the cliché generator with those who possess true knowledge” (p. 48). How can you tell the difference? Dobelli claims – with categorical certainty – that true knowledge comes with an admission of uncertainty, whereas chauffeur knowledge is expressed (over)confidently. Oy, there’s a grain of truth there, but that’s about it. Some true knowledge is certain (the square root of 49 is 7) and some chauffeur knowledge is dressed up with rhetorical hesitation. It only takes a clever chauffeur to do that. In other words, Dobelli gives you just another heuristic, a rule of thumb that often works, but also brings forth 99 errors in the process.

I sympathize with the negative definition to some extent. It works well in ethics. Rabbi Hillel cast the golden rule in negative terms. Do not do unto others what is abhorrent to you. Hewing to this rule goes a long way to make you ethical without giving you a positive theory of ethics. For the study of rational thinking, however, a blanket call to stay away from making mistakes tells us very little about what rational thinking is. Dobelli’s book has been misnomed.

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

#1. To: Gatlin, trumpkin canary TDS (#0)

The TDS trumpkin nation.



Ron Paul - Lake Jackson Texas Values

Hondo68  posted on  2020-04-08   15:24:54 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Hondo68 (#1)

Hondo, where oh where did you get the picture of Gatlin ??

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.

"If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went." (Will Rogers)

"No one ever rescues an old dog. They lay in a cage until they die. PLEASE save one. None of us wants to die cold and alone... --Dennis Olson "

People that say money can't buy you happiness, have never paid an adoption fee

Stoner  posted on  2020-04-08   18:48:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Please report web page problems, questions and comments to webmaster@libertysflame.com