Title: Trump speaks to media during meeting with Chinese officials (Phase 1 trade treaty agreed to) Source:
YouTube URL Source:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvHLs0vA5jc Published:Oct 11, 2019 Author:Bad Orange Man Post Date:2019-10-11 19:28:48 by Tooconservative Keywords:None Views:763 Comments:7
Trump spoke with the Chinese VP present in the Oval Office. Trump's ag secretary and treasury secretary were both present and spoke very briefly. The Chinese vice-premier was accompanied by his trade negotiation team and he did confirm vocally that an agreement is concluded.
Getting the full agreement written will take 3-4 weeks. This was a high-level agreement and Phase 2 of the trade agreement will be negotiated once the Phase 1 treaty is signed. There may also be a Phase 3 of the treaty, depending on how the first two phases are laid out.
IP protection
raising American ag exports to China from $8B currently, past the historic high of $16B, and reaching $40B-$50B
structural ag trade issues on biotech and sanitation standards to aid American farmers in exports
financial services agreement
currency & foreign exchange, including both central banks
Trump was very serious about this. It is a major milestone for his presidency, perhaps the most important thing he has accomplished, even more than stopping the refugee scam at the southern border or deregulation or appointing so many federal judges. Certainly, this ranks up with any of those. And this fulfills one of Trump's central campaign promises.
Unless this deal somehow falls apart completely, Wall Street will hit major new highs. Soon.
This was a very high level announcement. It will be hard for China to pull back from what they have already agreed to in this Phase 1 treaty. It was announced and agreed to in the Oval Office with Trump's cabinet members and the Chinese trade team present. Very hard for them to pull back from it now.
The truth is that China has to change and they already know it. They have become a First World country, no longer a low-skill industrializing Third World economy. China can't continue to grow and develop without substantial internal and external economic changes. They've gotten as far as they can go with the trade model of the past decades. They've ridden that horse as far as they can.
And they were frightened by Trump's tariffs because that would have encouraged a lot of multinationals to start moving factories out of China to places like Vietnam. And that would shift China from being at the center of many production and distribution chains. Once those factories leave, they don't come back any time soon. Cutting a trade deal gets rid of the tariffs and the Chinese keep the production chain centered in China, something they really need to maintain as a primary engine of their economy.
They were frightened by Trump's tariffs because that would have encouraged a lot of multinationals to start moving factories out of China to places like Vietnam. And that would shift China from being at the center of many production and distribution chains.
Once those factories leave, they don't come back any time soon. Cutting a trade deal gets rid of the tariffs and the Chinese keep the production chain centered in China, something they really need to maintain as a primary engine of their economy.
Worth repeating. Good dot-connecting. The ChiComs know Trump ain't messin'.
It looks to me like Trump won't have to worry about the ongoing stories of "Trump tariffs hurt farmers" in 2020.
Notice that he led with opening China's markets to double or triple Chinese imports of American ag. That is no accident and it is directly related to the 2020 election.
This is how you lock down Iowa with a padlock. It might even be enough for Trump to cross King Corn on ethanol/biofuel mandates. Those trade associations are only powerful if farmers feel they are threatened. If they don't feel threatened, King Corn's lobbyists are just annoying.
The general tenor of Trump's remarks was interesting. He took this very seriously and made sure that he said nothing that might cause offense. Libmedia even tossed a "Where's Hunter?" question at him and quizzed him on the Biden-China stuff and Trump brushed it all off and said he might take questions on that later. He in no way wanted to queer this deal with ill-considered remarks that Chinese officials might consider disrespectful to them. The Chi-coms wanted this to be a good ceremony for them to put on their networks and Trump did oblige them.
Trump did remark a little on how China knew that the trade situation and currency manipulation had to be addressed because Trump had made it an issue. And he hinted broadly that the Chinese did not want to take any chances that Trump could be defeated in 2020 and a Dem president could take office with all those tariffs already in place. The Chinese would worry much more about a President Warren taking office with the tariffs than just making a deal with Trump now and not taking any risks with multinationals moving their factories to Vietnam or elsewhere in Asia, threatening China's supply chain dominance as the world's workshop.
Trump really did play this one just right. It is, as Joe Biden would say, a Big Fucking Deal.
Notice that he led with opening China's markets to double or triple Chinese imports of American ag.
I like China not buying our farm products. I saw boneless chicken breast for $1.49 lb. Chuck roast for $3.49 and ground beef under 2 bucks a pound. Bacon $3.49 a pound. If China buys more our price goes up.
It is American soybeans and corn that are likely to see the biggest increases.
China can raise all the chickens and hogs that it wants to, the same as us. They do like our beef so that is product that could see some big price increases.
