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politics and politicians Title: Bye-bye Biden? Warren leads in new national poll, tied for lead in another Bear in mind, these results are trickling in *before* Democratic voters have digested the allegations of corruption made against Biden in the Ukraine matter. Even if they opt not to believe them, how many will conclude that swing voters will believe them next fall and start discounting Biden’s alleged “electability” advantage? Imagine if Trump ends up being impeached for trying to make trouble abroad for a candidate who was never going to be his general election opponent anyway. A game-changing new poll from Quinnipiac: Not only is 27 percent the best Warren’s ever done in a national poll, it’s also the first time she’s led Biden outright in any national poll. As usual, she leads him in enthusiasm too: Fully 70 percent of Dems say they’d be excited to see her as nominee versus 56 percent who say the same of Biden. The real alarm bell for Grandpa Joe, though, is the split among black voters, as Philip Klein rightly notes: In California, it’s a similar story. A new LA Times poll finds Warren jumping to a 29 percent to 22 percent lead in the delegate-rich state overall, but, she’s only trailing Biden 32 percent to 24 percent among black voters. Sen. Kamala Harris, who is both black and from California, was at 18 percent among the group. Not only is Warren now second to Biden among black voters, trailing him 40/19, but Bernie Sanders has 12 percent of that group. If Bernie fades and black progressives begin drifting towards Warren, suddenly she’d be competitive with Joe among voters who are supposed to be his “firewall,” the group that will offset his losses among other demographics by preferring him overwhelmingly. Blacks no longer prefer him overwhelmingly, according to today’s Quinnipiac data. And given the general drift towards Warren in all polling lately, it’s likely that his lead among them will shrink rather than grow. Could the Quinnipiac poll be an outlier? Seems unlikely. This new data that dropped this morning from YouGov confirms that the race is a coin flip right now, with Warren and Biden neck and neck in the mid-20s. % naming candidate as their first choice (among likely voters): Warren: 25% All else 1% or less — G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) September 25, 2019 When Democratic voters are asked whom they’re considering voting for, Warren leads Biden 54/47. There are other polls lately that look like this too — Emerson recently had Biden up 25/23 and NBC/WSJ had it 31/25 in mid-September. There’s no reason, in other words, to think Quinnipiac and YouGov are “bad polls” for Biden or “good polls” for Warren. They seem to accurately reflect the state of the race at the moment, before the impact of the Ukraine stuff has been felt. In fact, as of today, Warren is the first candidate besides Biden to crack 20 percent in the RCP poll of polls since May. She seems to be for real. “But wait,” you say, “national polls are interesting but ultimately don’t matter. Iowa and New Hampshire are what matter.” Right, true — but Warren’s surging there too. I already posted this new Monmouth poll of New Hampshire yesterday but it’s worth eyeballing the numbers again: 1. If the Democratic primary election for president was today, would you vote for [NAMES WERE ROTATED]? [If UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of these candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward?] She’s just three points behind Biden in the RCP polling average of the state right now. And Iowa? Warren has led the field there in the last two polls taken, 24/16 over Biden in an Iowa State survey taken in mid-September and 22/20 in a Des Moines Register poll conducted a few days later. She’s up 2.7 points in the RCP average. If you had to make a bet on the Democratic primaries at this particular moment in time, Warren running the table would look like a fairly solid bet. The question is whether South Carolina’s mostly black Democratic electorate would stick with Biden if he lost the first two states or if they’d break for Warren if she won them. The signs there aren’t great for Biden either, per Politico: As strange as it is to imagine after the Democratic field initially ballooned to more than 20 candidates, the actual race could be over quickly once Democrats start voting. Which means Trump will never have a chance to use the Ukraine matter against Biden — but Warren will have lots of chances to use it against Trump. Good lord. Exit question: Kamala Harris is now at three percent nationally, per Quinnipiac? Was even Scott Walker’s 2016 flameout as embarrassing as this? Poster Comment: Brutal numbers for Biden. And these were before most of the news about his own Ukraine scandal came out. Will Team Biden even survive the journey to the Iowa caucus? And Warren is taking the black vote away from him, his last stronghold.
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#1. To: All, Vicomte13 (#0)
A bit on a subject you've mentioned before, a national wealth registry: A wealth tax is a direct tax levied on the assets a person holds. This makes it distinct from many other taxes, such as income or sales, which are levied when money or assets change hands. Under Sanders’s plan, a tax would be levied on an individual reported net worth. To see that the wealth tax is actually paid, the Sanders campaign also called for harsher enforcement mechanisms. That includes the establishment of a “national wealth registry,” although what or who would be “registered” under such a system remains unclear. HotAir: Get ready for the “national wealth registry” Warren might be able to sell this. And we can have some confidence that she would actually do it, given what she did in creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. And this is why Wall Street fears her almost as much as Sanders. Anyway, I still say Warren is the one. She excites a lot of Dems, they like her politics, blacks are starting to like her better than Biden, what is there not to like for a Dem (other than those capitalist pigs on Wall Street). On the up side for Trump, Warren has all the charisma of Hitlery on a bender. She just isn't that good a politician in real life. She's never actually been very popular in Massachusetts even. Biden was really only getting worse as a candidate the more he campaigned and got tired; the Dems all seem to think Biden is frail. And Biden has that history of brain surgeries (and hair plugs). And groping young girls. And deals involving Ukraine and China and Biden's son. And saying odd things. Biden just seems off, even for Biden. I think Biden is almost ready to implode and that Warren will take his place. The Dems badly want to unify on a nominee very early. IA/NV/NH caucus/primaries might be decisive in choosing the Dem nominee. Warren is vacuuming up black supporters at the expense of Kamala Harris and Cory Booker and Joe Biden. She's grabbing some of Bernie's voters too. Warren is sort of a middle-of-the-road Dem in 2019, far Left but in a centrist way so that the far Left can unify to support her. Buttigieg and other lesser Dem candidates are losing voters to her. Her surge definitely is coming at almost everyone else's expense. She has a wide and growing draw of support across the Dem party.
I dont see black males supporting a weak freak like chief babybloodonherhands.
I did mention above that Booker is hanging around with his presidential season calendar wipe open. I bet Booker won't be launching any attacks on Warren. It wouldn't surprise me if Booker has been running for VP all along. He's a natural fit to balance a ticket for Dems. And he's plenty far Left too.
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