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Title: Bye-bye Biden? Warren leads in new national poll, tied for lead in another
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: https://hotair.com/archives/allahpu ... tional-poll-tied-lead-another/
Published: Sep 25, 2019
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2019-09-25 16:11:16 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 4284
Comments: 35
Bear in mind, these results are trickling in *before* Democratic voters have digested the allegations of corruption made against Biden in the Ukraine matter. Even if they opt not to believe them, how many will conclude that swing voters will believe them next fall and start discounting Biden’s alleged “electability” advantage? Imagine if Trump ends up being impeached for trying to make trouble abroad for a candidate who was never going to be his general election opponent anyway. A game-changing new poll from Quinnipiac: Not only is 27 percent the best Warren’s ever done in a national poll, it’s also the first time she’s led Biden outright in any national poll. As usual, she leads him in enthusiasm too: Fully 70 percent of Dems say they’d be excited to see her as nominee versus 56 percent who say the same of Biden. The real alarm bell for Grandpa Joe, though, is the split among black voters, as Philip Klein rightly notes: In California, it’s a similar story. A new LA Times poll finds Warren jumping to a 29 percent to 22 percent lead in the delegate-rich state overall, but, she’s only trailing Biden 32 percent to 24 percent among black voters. Sen. Kamala Harris, who is both black and from California, was at 18 percent among the group. Not only is Warren now second to Biden among black voters, trailing him 40/19, but Bernie Sanders has 12 percent of that group. If Bernie fades and black progressives begin drifting towards Warren, suddenly she’d be competitive with Joe among voters who are supposed to be his “firewall,” the group that will offset his losses among other demographics by preferring him overwhelmingly. Blacks no longer prefer him overwhelmingly, according to today’s Quinnipiac data. And given the general drift towards Warren in all polling lately, it’s likely that his lead among them will shrink rather than grow. Could the Quinnipiac poll be an outlier? Seems unlikely. This new data that dropped this morning from YouGov confirms that the race is a coin flip right now, with Warren and Biden neck and neck in the mid-20s. % naming candidate as their first choice (among likely voters): Warren: 25% All else 1% or less — G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) September 25, 2019 When Democratic voters are asked whom they’re considering voting for, Warren leads Biden 54/47. There are other polls lately that look like this too — Emerson recently had Biden up 25/23 and NBC/WSJ had it 31/25 in mid-September. There’s no reason, in other words, to think Quinnipiac and YouGov are “bad polls” for Biden or “good polls” for Warren. They seem to accurately reflect the state of the race at the moment, before the impact of the Ukraine stuff has been felt. In fact, as of today, Warren is the first candidate besides Biden to crack 20 percent in the RCP poll of polls since May. She seems to be for real. “But wait,” you say, “national polls are interesting but ultimately don’t matter. Iowa and New Hampshire are what matter.” Right, true — but Warren’s surging there too. I already posted this new Monmouth poll of New Hampshire yesterday but it’s worth eyeballing the numbers again: 1. If the Democratic primary election for president was today, would you vote for [NAMES WERE ROTATED]? [If UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of these candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward?] She’s just three points behind Biden in the RCP polling average of the state right now. And Iowa? Warren has led the field there in the last two polls taken, 24/16 over Biden in an Iowa State survey taken in mid-September and 22/20 in a Des Moines Register poll conducted a few days later. She’s up 2.7 points in the RCP average. If you had to make a bet on the Democratic primaries at this particular moment in time, Warren running the table would look like a fairly solid bet. The question is whether South Carolina’s mostly black Democratic electorate would stick with Biden if he lost the first two states or if they’d break for Warren if she won them. The signs there aren’t great for Biden either, per Politico: As strange as it is to imagine after the Democratic field initially ballooned to more than 20 candidates, the actual race could be over quickly once Democrats start voting. Which means Trump will never have a chance to use the Ukraine matter against Biden — but Warren will have lots of chances to use it against Trump. Good lord. Exit question: Kamala Harris is now at three percent nationally, per Quinnipiac? Was even Scott Walker’s 2016 flameout as embarrassing as this? Poster Comment: Brutal numbers for Biden. And these were before most of the news about his own Ukraine scandal came out. Will Team Biden even survive the journey to the Iowa caucus? And Warren is taking the black vote away from him, his last stronghold.
Sep 25 Aug 28 Aug 06 Jul 29 Jul 02 Jun 11 May 21 Apr 30 Mar 28 Biden 25 32 32 34 22 30 35 8 29 Sanders 16 15 14 11 13 19 16 1 19 O'Rourke 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 5 12 Harris 3 7 7 12 20 7 8 8 8 Warren 27 19 21 15 14 15 13 2 4 Booker - 1 2 1 3 1 3 2 2 Klobuchar 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 Buttigieg 7 5 5 6 4 8 5 0 4 DK/NA 13 9 10 12 12 13 11 8 14 Back in a July poll, Warren was essentially in a three-way tie for second place, with 15 percent nationally, according to Quinnipiac. In that poll, she was at 20 percent among white voters, but way back at six percent among black voters. In a Wednesday poll, she has vaulted to the top, with 27 percent overall, just edging out Joe Biden, at 25 percent. But now among black voters, she’s in second place, at 19 percent. #NEW poll of the 2020 Democratic primary from The Economist and YouGov:
Biden: 25
Sanders: 16
Buttigieg: 7
Harris: 6
O’Rourke: 2
Yang: 2 TREND: (with leaners) Sept.
2019 May
2019 Elizabeth Warren 27% 8% Joe Biden 25% 36% Bernie Sanders 12% 18% Pete Buttigieg 10% 9% Kamala Harris 3% 6% Cory Booker 2% 2% Tulsi Gabbard 2% <1% Amy Klobuchar 2% 2% Tom Steyer 2% n/a Andrew Yang 2% 1% Beto O’Rourke 1% 2% Biden’s level of support in South Carolina makes it his firewall state, but even in South Carolina there are troubling signs of erosion. While he remains on top, among black voters, who are more than 60 percent of the Democratic electorate, Biden has plummeted 19 points in Tyson’s polls. That’s a potential leading indicator of the problems he could face after South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary when many of the minority-heavy Southeastern states — as well as Texas and California — beginning voting on Super Tuesday, March 3, and thereafter.
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#8. To: Tooconservative (#0)
Now if Warren were a black woman, but I'm not allowed to go there?
Would you settle for a #FakeCherokee if she were further Left than Karl Marx?
The fact that this Cherokee thing is the main argument against Warren shows two things. First her opponents are desperate, second she is going to be the next President (unless Trump has some tremendous successes). Taxing great wealth is not Karl Marx idea, abolishing it altogether is. Taxing it (akin to FDR New Deal) would prolong the life of capitalism (like restart of Monopoly Game or Jubilee year). Radical Marxists would not have it. They would rather prefer greater concentration of wealth in few hands and misery of common people, so revolution becomes possible.
Warren is a cunt and you suck Obama's balls. You are a murderer like the cunt. If those babies had guns I wish they would boow your brains out for trying to murder them
I did actually LOL for about thirty seconds after that volley. I think those fetuses should arm themselves to defend their lives against people like A Hole.
I am opposed to abortion (unless to save the mother). And I do not believe that you are against or really care. It is a Red Herring like Cherokee things to protect great wealth of your idols.
#15. To: A Pole, Vicomte13 (#14)
I don't care about the tycoons and old money interests and I certainly don't care about Wall Street. I don't mind either Sanders' or Warren's wealth confiscation tax system. I think that, for outfits like the Walmart heirs or Amazon or Monsanto, that they game the system unfairly, buy lobbyists and local and state officials, and screw everyone. They get no sympathy from me. They quite often deliberately game the system and bend the law and use teams of attorneys to drag it out for so many years that their strategy deliberately frustrates the intent of legislators and voters. And it is quite deliberate, a way to play the system. It isn't the wealth confiscation schemes these Dems have that keep me far away from voting for them. It's all the rest of the Left baggage that goes along with it. And that is Warren's chance at the WH. And it is why Wall Street really does fear her, why she didn't run in 2016 when Hitlery was obviously so weak. Wall Street doesn't fear Trump at all. Vic is interested in this tax scheme as well, hence my flag to him. If Warren goes far enough with it, Vic may be torn between Trump and Warren as to which one will enact the policies he wants as prez. It's interesting when you finally find a voter that isn't voting for a Lesser Of Two Evils but for a Greater Of Two Goods. Vic may face that choice in 2020. Vic may be, in 2020, the rarest bird going to the polls. And that is interesting.
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#9. To: paraclete (#8)
Now if Warren were a black woman, but I'm not allowed to go there?
#10. To: Tooconservative, paraclete (#9)
(Edited)
Would you settle for a #FakeCherokee
further Left than Karl Marx?
#11. To: A Pole (#10)
#13. To: A K A Stone (#11)
(Edited)
#14. To: Tooconservative (#13)
Replies to Comment # 14. It is a Red Herring like Cherokee things to protect great wealth of your idols.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 14.
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