China’s exports fall unexpectedly in August, as trade war continues to slam industrial economy Shipments down 1 per cent in month despite analysts forecasting further growth after 3.3 per cent rise in July.
Imports remain cause of concern for Beijing, falling 5.6 per cent in August, meaning they have only grown in one month in 2019.
China’s exports fell unexpectedly in August, as the trade war with the United States continued to hit the world’s second largest economy.
Exports fell by 1 per cent last month after growing 3.3 per cent in July. The August result was below the 2.1 per cent growth expected in poll of analysts conducted by Bloomberg.
July’s expansion now seems like an anomaly, likely driven by front-loading as new tariffs of 15 per cent on about US$110 billion of Chinese goods that took effect on September 1. American buyers of Chinese goods subject to the new tariffs were likely to have filled their inventories as much as possible before the goods became more expensive to import.
Furthermore, the much-reported 3.8 per cent depreciation of the yuan in August failed to stop the decline in exports - despite Washington’s fears that it was being used to give China’s exporters an unfair advantage.
It is a far cry from the double-digit expansion that characterised the export machine that powered the Chinese economy for more than two decades.
Overall in August, the value of China’s total import and export was US$394.76 billion, down 3.2 per cent on a year earlier.
Imports also remain a huge cause of concern to policymakers in Beijing. They fell by 5.6 per cent in August after a 5.3 per cent decline in July. This was slightly better than the Bloomberg poll, which had predicted a 6.5 per cent contraction.
Chinese imports have now declined in every month of 2019 apart from April. To understand the scale of the import collapse, compare it to last year, when the average monthly growth was 16.6 per cent, with only a single negative reading, in December 2018.
Analysts have been raising concerns about China’s consumption levels for months, with retail sales underperforming and various bouts of government stimulus failing to kick-start purchases of big ticket items such as cars. The sluggish imports suggest the government support has yet to trickle into the real economy.
The import slump also points to a downturn in the manufacturing sector: many of China’s imports are components ordered by factories, often for use in goods for export. In the most recent official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, a gauge of factory owners’ sentiment, export orders remained in negative territory for the 15th month in a row.
Overall, China’s trade surplus in August was US$34.84 billion, down from US$41.61 billion in July and behind analysts’ expectation for US$44.25 billion. However, this was an increase of 32.5 per cent on a year earlier, according to a release from the National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday.
In a report released on Thursday, the Institute of International Finance, an organisation of bankers based in Washington, had said that China’s surplus over the first half of the year had hit record highs, despite the ongoing trade war.
“Meanwhile, our proxy for China’s underlying trade surplus, which controls for commodity prices by excluding oil and iron ore, was the highest ever in the first half of 2019,” read the report.
“Perhaps more surprising, given repeated rounds of tariffs, is that China’s exports remain robust. Part of the resilience in China’s exports reflects a shift in composition, away from the US and towards the euro zone and other economies in Asia, including Vietnam,” the authors said.
Top negotiators from China and the US are set to meet in early October for their first face-to-face talks since August.
