Charlie Cook: Dems’ ‘Car Wreck In Slow Motion’ Continues By Ed Carson Tue., Jan. 26, '10 10:31 AM ET Tags: Charlie Cook - Elections - GOP - Democrats - Midterms Veteran election analyst Charlie Cook wrote today that 2010 is not 1994 redux. But though the “circumstances and dynamics” are different, it appears to be a nationalized election, he said. Often in these elections, inferior, underfunded or less-organized candidates and campaigns beat more amply funded and better-prepared candidates and campaigns.
These kinds of years also see states and districts that normally fall easily into one party’s column inexplicably fall into the other’s hands.
There is no reason to believe that 2010 is not just as nationalized as 1994 and 2006 were, or for that matter 1958, 1974 and 1982.
2010 does stand out in one key regard:
The primary difference between this year and previous nationalized elections is that this one looks so bad for Democrats so early.
The Cook Political Report now predicts Republicans will win 25-35 House seats in the fall. That’s up from 20-30 seats about a month ago and 15-25 seats a few months before that. To win the 40 seats necessary to flip the House to the GOP, Cook says the recent trend of Democratic retirements in battleground districts would have to continue for a couple more months
As for the Senate, Cook personally believes Republicans will pick up five to seven seats this year.
There’s a long time until November. Few people had any idea Scott Brown would pull off the Massachusetts stunner until just a couple weeks before the Jan. 19 special election. Conditions could get better or worse for Democrats. But so far President Obama and Congress have not changed course.
The last six months, since we began writing about impending Democratic problems in August, has been like watching a car wreck in slow motion.
We keep watching, expecting one of the drivers to swerve or hit the brakes, but they never do. The White House and Democratic congressional leaders have done nothing to halt the impending collision.
