[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

"Pete Hegseth Is Right for the DOD"

"Why Our Constitution Secures Liberty, Not Democracy"

Woodworking and Construction Hacks

"CNN: Reporters Were Crying and Hugging in the Hallways After Learning of Matt Gaetz's AG Nomination"

"NEW: Democrat Officials Move to Steal the Senate Race in Pennsylvania, Admit to Breaking the Law"

"Pete Hegseth Is a Disruptive Choice for Secretary of Defense. That’s a Good Thing"

Katie Britt will vote with the McConnell machine

Battle for Senate leader heats up — Hit pieces coming from Thune and Cornyn.

After Trump’s Victory, There Can Be No Unity Without A Reckoning

Vivek Ramaswamy, Dark-horse Secretary of State Candidate

Megyn Kelly has a message for Democrats. Wait for the ending.

Trump to choose Tom Homan as his “Border Czar”

"Trump Shows Demography Isn’t Destiny"

"Democrats Get a Wake-Up Call about How Unpopular Their Agenda Really Is"

Live Election Map with ticker shows every winner.

Megyn Kelly Joins Trump at His Final PA Rally of 2024 and Explains Why She's Supporting Him

South Carolina Lawmaker at Trump Rally Highlights Story of 3-Year-Old Maddie Hines, Killed by Illegal Alien

GOP Demands Biden, Harris Launch Probe into Twice-Deported Illegal Alien Accused of Killing Grayson Davis

Previously-Deported Illegal Charged With Killing Arkansas Children’s Hospital Nurse in Horror DUI Crash

New Data on Migrant Crime Rates Raises Eyebrows, Alarms

Thousands of 'potentially fraudulent voter registration applications' Uncovered, Stopped in Pennsylvania

Michigan Will Count Ballot of Chinese National Charged with Voting Illegally

"It Did Occur" - Kentucky County Clerk Confirms Voting Booth 'Glitch'' Shifted Trump Votes To Kamala

Legendary Astronaut Buzz Aldrin 'wholeheartedly' Endorses Donald Trump

Liberal Icon Naomi Wolf Endorses Trump: 'He's Being More Inclusive'

(Washed Up Has Been) Singer Joni Mitchell Screams 'F*** Trump' at Hollywood Bowl

"Analysis: The Final State of the Presidential Race"

He’ll, You Pieces of Garbage

The Future of Warfare -- No more martyrdom!

"Kamala’s Inane Talking Points"

"The Harris Campaign Is Testament to the Toxicity of Woke Politics"

Easy Drywall Patch

Israel Preparing NEW Iran Strike? Iran Vows “Unimaginable” Response | Watchman Newscast

In Logansport, Indiana, Kids are Being Pushed Out of Schools After Migrants Swelled County’s Population by 30%: "Everybody else is falling behind"

Exclusive — Bernie Moreno: We Spend $110,000 Per Illegal Migrant Per Year, More than Twice What ‘the Average American Makes’

Florida County: 41 of 45 People Arrested for Looting after Hurricanes Helene and Milton are Noncitizens

Presidential race: Is a Split Ticket the only Answer?

hurricanes and heat waves are Worse

'Backbone of Iran's missile industry' destroyed by IAF strikes on Islamic Republic

Joe Rogan Experience #2219 - Donald Trump

IDF raids Hezbollah Radwan Forces underground bases, discovers massive cache of weapons

Gallant: ‘After we strike in Iran,’ the world will understand all of our training

The Atlantic Hit Piece On Trump Is A Psy-Op To Justify Post-Election Violence If Harris Loses

Six Al Jazeera journalists are Hamas, PIJ terrorists

Judge Aileen Cannon, who tossed Trump's classified docs case, on list of proposed candidates for attorney general

Iran's Assassination Program in Europe: Europe Goes Back to Sleep

Susan Olsen says Brady Bunch revival was cancelled because she’s MAGA.

Foreign Invaders crisis cost $150B in 2023, forcing some areas to cut police and fire services: report

Israel kills head of Hezbollah Intelligence.

Tenn. AG reveals ICE released thousands of ‘murderers and rapists’ from detention centers into US streets


Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

International News
See other International News Articles

Title: Good news, for once
Source: ING
URL Source: https://think.ing.com/opinions/good-news-for-once/
Published: Jul 26, 2018
Author: Robert Carnell
Post Date: 2018-07-26 07:48:32 by Gatlin
Keywords: None
Views: 202

Good things come in threes, what's next

The apparent goodwill between the EU and the US emerging from the Juncker-Trump talks was quite unexpected. At risk, trade in autos between the two economies, and probably an escalation of retaliatory tariffs from the EU. Nice words yesterday, but then we have been here before. Trade talks with China looked to be proceeding nicely, with Chinese markets opened and tariffs cut, only for the US to slap on tariffs anyway, I'll believe it when I see it, but markets are far more trusting than me, and will take comfort on all of this today and probably into the weekend. 

There is also good news out of China, where a more relaxed PBoC on capital rules and more proactive fiscal policy should all help to offset the damage from US Tariffs. It all helps to support our forecasts for Chinese GDP growth, which we have trimmed far less than some other economies in the region, despite it being in the vanguard for the trade war. 

Is 2Q18 Korean GDP the third spot of good news?

The answer to the question above (is Korean GDP the third bit of good news?) is a categoric "no". Though on the face of it, the 2Q18 GDP print was better than we had been expecting (0.7% vs ING f 0.5%). However, we find it a far less pleasing result than is being reported elsewhere. By components, it looks as if the most significant contribution to growth was a drop in imports in 2Q of 2.6%QoQ, a reversal from a 4.9% increase the previous quarter. The export growth rate of 0.8% is being reported as stemming from semiconductors, which is only partly true, as the biggest growth was in exports of services (3.4%), and goods exports rose only 0.5% (down from 4.5% in 1Q18). 

Private consumer spending growth was only 0.3%, down from 0.7% the previous quarter, and government consumption was also much weaker as earlier stimulus waned, and all aspects of investment were actually negative. 

The Bank of Korea full-year forecasts for 2018 were revised down to 2.9% from 3.0%, which suggests that they too are less than overjoyed with the way the economy is shaping up; We are revising down our Korea GDP figures too. Prior to this release, were toying with a 2.5% growth figure for 2018. We may need to push this up a little now, but will certainly end up below the BoK's 2.9%.  

Slap a moving average line through Singapore's industrial production growth, and it is very clearly peaking out, with today's consensus figure of about 3-4% YoY likely to see that moving average trend declining further to about a 5% YoY rate. Recent non-oil domestic export figures were weak, and that can be a helpful indicator for these production statistics.

But the key question is, can it fall further? And the answer to that lies in the details of the earlier part of this note: What is the outcome of the global trade war? How badly is China affected, and how much can they shift the pain elsewhere?  

In 2015, Singapore's production fell by about 5%YoY on a trend basis throughout most of the year. But there are too many unanswered questions to make a confident prediction of what happens over the rest of this year and next. There is also little that domestic policy can do to swing the trend around. 

The ECB seems to have managed to suck out most of the interest in European monetary policy with its drawn-out taper and creeping forward guidance. We know when the taper starts (September) we also have a good idea when the negative deposit rates will be removed (September next year). What is unclear, is how Mario Draghi will manage to inject any interest at all into today's press conference. He probably won't. "Dull", is a complement or central banks. 

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  


[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Please report web page problems, questions and comments to webmaster@libertysflame.com