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Economy
See other Economy Articles

Title: Rolling on: Jobs market maintains momentum at 213K added
Source: HotAir
URL Source: https://hotair.com/archives/2018/07 ... maintains-momentum-213k-added/
Published: Jul 6, 2018
Author: Ed Morrissey
Post Date: 2018-07-06 11:11:31 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 196
Comments: 18

Economic growth continued in the US to close out the second quarter, boosting employment while wages still lag. The US jobs market performed better than expected in June, adding 213,000 jobs during the month and beating market guesses on the expansion. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Household survey continued to show problems in their data collection, however, leading to more wild swings in labor-force numbers:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while retail trade lost jobs. …

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June and has grown by 2.4 million over the last 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while employment in retail trade declined. (See table B-1.)

Employment in professional and business services increased by 50,000 in June and has risen by 521,000 over the year.

Manufacturing added 36,000 jobs in June. Durable goods manufacturing accounted for nearly all of the increase, including job gains in fabricated metal products (+7,000), computer and electronic products (+5,000), and primary metals (+3,000). Motor vehicles and parts also added jobs over the month (+12,000), after declining by 8,000 in May. Over the past year, manufacturing has added 285,000 jobs.

In more good news, the revisions from the last month were all to the upside. BLS added 16,000 jobs to April’s projections and 21,000 to the May report. That puts the three-month rolling average at 211,000 jobs added per month, almost exactly equating this month’s report. The job expansion this year remains steady, although not exactly spectacular. However, annual wage growth remains slower than what would be expected if the market was really reaching full employment.

On that note, the unemployment rate rose despite the job additions, thanks to yet more odd numbers from the Household survey. The number of people in the civilian workforce leaped up 601,000 from the previous month, while the number of people not in the workforce dropped sharply by 413,000. At the same time, however, the number of unemployed rose by 499,000. Either we just had a flood of people back into the workforce, or more likely, BLS needs to do some serious work on its survey techniques.

Even with all the fluctuations, the participation rates showed some improvement. The workforce participation rate ticked up two-tenths to 62.9%. That’s still slightly lower than the 63.0% in February and well below the post-Great Recession rate of 65.7%, and it’s near the post-Great Recession bottom of 62.6%, but at least it moved in the right direction even with all of the data instability on workforce calculations. However, the employment-population ratio remained at the post-Great Recession high of 60.4%.

All of this calls into question whether the “full employment” mantra we keep hearing is actually true. Wages have not gone up sharply enough to credit that, even though some employers insist that they’re not able to fill jobs at this point. CNBC wonders about it, too.

US economy adds 213,000 jobs in June from CNBC.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 213,000 in June and the unemployment rate was 4 percent, according to a government report Friday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a gain of 195,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady at 3.8 percent, which had been tied for the lowest since 1969.

In addition to the payroll gains, average hourly earnings rose 2.7 percent year over year, a bit below expectations of a 2.8 percent increase.

Despite increasing talk about the economy being near full employment, hiring continues to grow. Along with June’s upside surprise, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised April’s count up from 159,000 to 175,000 and May’s from 223,000 to 244,000, a total of 37,000 more than initially stated.

The AP’s Josh Boak called it a sign of confidence despite rising trade tensions:
The Labor Department said Friday that the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent from 3.8 percent as more people began looking for work and not all of them found it.

On the same day that the Trump administration began imposing tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese imports and China retaliated with their own tariffs, the job gain showed that the 9-year old U.S. economic expansion — the second-longest on record — remains on solid ground.

Average hourly pay rose just 2.7 percent from a year earlier. The low jobless rate has yet to force employers to offer higher wages in order to fill job openings.

Slow wage growth either suggests that the job openings aren’t mission critical or that there’s more competition for jobs than the toplines from these reports suggest. The seasonally adjusted Not In Labor Force numbers might explain why. From January 2000 to January 2008, at the beginning of what would become the Great Recession, we added 11 million people to that metric. Between January 2008 and January 2010, we added almost 5 million — nearly have as much as the previous eight years — as people bailed out of the collapsing economy. Since January 2010, we’ve added 12 million more. The lack of growth on wages strongly indicates some kind of labor overhang, viable workers who are still outside the system looking for an opportunity and depressing competition for wages. Boak’s take on this might be the closest to reality.

At any rate, the report is good news for the administration as the trade war begins, but they’d better enjoy it while they can. If this momentum stalls before the election because of these trade actions, it might be a very bleak midterm cycle at the White House.


Poster Comment:

It starts to look like a half-million long-term unemployed got jobs in June. The experts are shocked at this possibility, I'm not sure why. With the inflationary pressures on the cost of living, many people who had given up on working may find it easier to get jobs or full-time work. It is likely that even illegals are finding it easier to get jobs now.

4% unemployment and 4% annual economic growth? That's how you win elections.

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#1. To: Tooconservative (#0)

It starts to look like a half-million long-term unemployed got jobs in June.

Being the gambler that I am, the chance that this gets reported versus some Russian stuff being reported is:

Jobs Report: +250

Russia stuff: - 180

no gnu taxes  posted on  2018-07-06   11:35:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: no gnu taxes (#1)

We could be seeing millions of long-term unemployed get jobs as the economy expands.

We haven't seen this kind of upward wage pressure and upward job mobility for working-class and middle-class people in decades. Those are the people who have not made the same economic advances that businesses and investors and professionals have made in recent decades. People are also having more opportunity to work a single full-time job rather than two part-time jobs. And employees have their greatest opportunity to increase their wages when they switch jobs.

The point of a Trump economy was to see working class and middle class citizens make some economic headway, to have some economic mobility.

Tooconservative  posted on  2018-07-06   11:45:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Tooconservative (#2)

I get it.

But will it be reported as such?

No -180

Yes +250

no gnu taxes  posted on  2018-07-06   11:53:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Tooconservative (#0)

On that note, the unemployment rate rose despite the job additions, thanks to yet more odd numbers from the Household survey. The number of people in the civilian workforce leaped up 601,000 from the previous month, while the number of people not in the workforce dropped sharply by 413,000. At the same time, however, the number of unemployed rose by 499,000. Either we just had a flood of people back into the workforce, or more likely, BLS needs to do some serious work on its survey techniques.

I still think the true unemployed figure is higher than the feds report, as the feds only report those seeking work but not having it unemployed. Discouraged workers who gave up looking don't count as unemployed.

So if the US economy is hiring more people, that should mean more discouraged workers will start looking for work, entering the "unemployed" category.

In this scenario, the unemployment figure will have a hard time dropping to an impressively low level, as it's ranks will be continuously restored from the unseen and unmonitored discouraged worker category.

So I say that even if future NFP levels show continuous good hiring, the unemployment rate will basically not drop lower.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-07-06   14:02:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Tooconservative (#0) (Edited)

democRat dipshits, of course, rail against prosperity as they seek to end it and return to Odumbass's "Failure is the New Normal from Behind":

Dems blast booming jobs report, Trump worker agenda, ‘reckless’

Hank Rearden  posted on  2018-07-06   14:05:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Pinguinite (#4)

I still think the true unemployed figure is higher than the feds report, as the feds only report those seeking work but not having it unemployed. Discouraged workers who gave up looking don't count as unemployed.

But if those formerly permanently-unemployed start showing up and getting jobs, that gives you sort of a bottomless employment pool. So you could have situations where the number of employed keep growing and growing well beyond the available pool of 4%-5% of officially unemployed as the feds count them.

That means we could have a lot of people return to work that were never expected to work again in this economy. They would just appear in the stats where they have been invisible for years as unemployed.

Tooconservative  posted on  2018-07-06   14:30:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Tooconservative (#6)

But if those formerly permanently-unemployed start showing up and getting jobs, that gives you sort of a bottomless employment pool. So you could have situations where the number of employed keep growing and growing well beyond the available pool of 4%-5% of officially unemployed as the feds count them.

Yes, exactly. I guess some portion of discouraged workers would see a job opportunity, jump on it and become immediately employed. Others would realize more job opportunities abound and start looking, adding them to the "unemployment force", as it were. Either way, employment goes up while unemployment remains the same.

Would the feds dare publicize the "discouraged worker" numbers?

I've historically been pessimistic on the US economy, long term especially as automation puts an end to routine manual labor, but we'll see what happens.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-07-06   14:38:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: Tooconservative (#0)

I thought all this talk about Tariffs was going to kill jobs?

I guess not!

Justified  posted on  2018-07-06   14:52:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Justified (#8)

I thought all this talk about Tariffs was going to kill jobs?

It still could. So far, not really.

The economy has underperformed for a long time under 0bama/Bush/Xlinton.

Tooconservative  posted on  2018-07-06   18:42:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: Pinguinite (#7)

I've historically been pessimistic on the US economy, long term especially as automation puts an end to routine manual labor, but we'll see what happens.

I'm optimistic in the long term, because eventually, thanks to automation, the cost of manufacture of fundamental necessities will drop to pennies, which means that there may not be the jobs, but there will no longer be the need FOR a great deal of work, as clothing, food, etc. will be essentially free.

Vicomte13  posted on  2018-07-06   19:47:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: Tooconservative (#0)

Bullshit.

VxH  posted on  2018-07-07   8:53:08 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: Pinguinite (#7) (Edited)

but we'll see what happens.

The culture of morons whose indoctrinated battle cry de-joure is "White Privilege!", could not see/find their own arse with both hands and a mirror.

Would the feds dare publicize the "discouraged worker" numbers?

No more likely than telling them diamonds are just coal-shyte.

VxH  posted on  2018-07-07   8:59:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: Vicomte13 (#10)

I'm optimistic in the long term, because eventually, thanks to automation, the cost of manufacture of fundamental necessities will drop to pennies, which means that there may not be the jobs, but there will no longer be the need FOR a great deal of work, as clothing, food, etc. will be essentially free.

I agree. We could see a new standard of "full time work" being a 20 hour work week instead of 40, which has been the norm since Henry Ford settled on it as the most amount of time an average worker could productively sustain.

But that presents a serious, brand new paradigm shift in the economy that civilized society has no experience with. How will it work? Do we become Marxists by imposing negative tax rates for people (every citizen gets an allowance from the government) and heavy tax rates for the few big corps that run all the automation... i.e. Amazon?

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-07-07   10:06:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: VxH (#11)

So you're frightened by...(alleged) body language?

Maybe the economy is not your strong suit.

Tooconservative  posted on  2018-07-07   10:13:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: Pinguinite (#13)

How will it work?

Probably poorly. Like everything else that we humans do. The concept is often good. The execution generally sucks, pretty much no matter what it is. So we muddle along and get by until we close our eyes for good.

Vicomte13  posted on  2018-07-07   12:21:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: Tooconservative (#14)

Tell the class about how all that derivative A$$paper got pulled out of the systemically corrupt arse of the "economy"?

We'll wait.

VxH  posted on  2018-07-07   13:10:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: VxH (#16)

We'll wait.

You'll be waiting a long time. I don't work for you.

Believe the employment stats or not as you wish.

Tooconservative  posted on  2018-07-07   13:17:21 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: Tooconservative (#17)

I don't work for you.

And I wouldn't employ something/one who lacks the integrity to disclose the truth about where all that A$$Paper came from....


Which is why YEB got his arse tossed on the cart ;p

VxH  posted on  2018-07-07   13:31:02 ET  (3 images) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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