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Title: Why America’s Trade War With China Will Be Absolutely Crippling For The U.S. Economy
Source:
The Economic Collapse
URL Source: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/ ... -crippling-for-the-u-s-economy
Published: Jun 18, 2018
Author: Michael Snyder
Post Date: 2018-06-19 09:58:11 by Deckard
Keywords: None
Views: 3987
Comments: 34
Can the global financial system handle a full-blown trade war between the two largest economies on the entire planet? We have never seen anything like this happen in the modern age, and this is creating a tremendous amount of uncertainty for the financial markets. Yes, something had to be done, and I have been writing about this for years. China has been stealing our intellectual property, manipulating currency rates and slapping high tariffs on American goods. We simply could not allow China to continue to take advantage of us, but now we are so dependent on the Chinese that a trade war with them is going to inevitably produce a great deal of pain. We are all going to wish that another way could have been found to resolve this crisis, because in the short-term this is definitely going to hurt the U.S. economy. And if President Trump chooses to press forward with trade wars against Europe, Canada and Mexico at the same time as well, the pain for our economy is going to be off the charts. Most Americans didn’t even notice, but Donald Trump fired a shot that was very clearly heard all the way over in China on Friday when he slapped a tariff of 25 percent on 50 billion dollars worth of Chinese products… China accused the United States of firing the first shot on Friday when the White House said that it would impose tariffs of 25% on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods. The announcement confirms a threat first made by President Donald Trump in March and follows months of trade talks between the two sides. A truce was announced in May, but it proved short-lived. “The United States has kept changing its mind and now launched a trade war,” China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement. The Chinese retaliated almost immediately by slapping a 25 percent tariff on 50 billion dollars worth of our goods… China will slap hefty tariffs on U.S. goods in retaliation for President Trump’s decision to levy duties on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. Beijing will impose an additional 25 percent tariff on a total of 659 U.S. imports worth about $50 billion, according to a statement on the country’s Ministry of Finance website. The first batch of tariffs will hit 545 U.S. products worth about $34 billion, including agricultural products, such as soybeans, corn and wheat, automobiles, beef, pork and seafood, and will start July 6. President Trump took the weekend to think about it, and on Monday he decided to raised the stakes much higher. If the Chinese really do go ahead with their tariffs, the Trump administration is going to hit them with a 10 percent tariff on another 200 billion dollars worth of their goods. The following is from Trump’s official statement… This latest action by China clearly indicates its determination to keep the United States at a permanent and unfair disadvantage, which is reflected in our massive $376 billion trade imbalance in goods. This is unacceptable. Further action must be taken to encourage China to change its unfair practices, open its market to United States goods, and accept a more balanced trade relationship with the United States. Therefore, today, I directed the United States Trade Representative to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods for additional tariffs at a rate of 10 percent. After the legal process is complete, these tariffs will go into effect if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced. If China increases its tariffs yet again, we will meet that action by pursuing additional tariffs on another $200 billion of goods. The trade relationship between the United States and China must be much more equitable. If China does not match each round of tariffs they will look weak, and if Trump does not keep raising the ante every time China matches him then he will look weak. So where will this end? Ultimately the goal is more balanced trade with China, which would mean more jobs and more factories here in the United States. But in the short-term we won’t see any of that. Instead, all we are going to see is tremendous pain. First of all, you should expect to see higher prices on any products that are made in China. This is going to hit consumers that shop at Wal-Mart and the dollar stores particularly hard. Secondly, any companies that sell products in China are going to be hurting. It is inevitable that some will start laying off workers, and that means that there will be job losses here in the United States. And even the expectation of lower profits will send stock prices tumbling. In fact, we already started to see this happen on Monday… Major American companies that generate a significant chunk of their sales from China, such as Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), Intel (INTC) and 3M (MMM), were among the losers on the Dow on Monday. The Dow has fallen nearly 1.5% in the past week and is close to erasing its gains for the year. If a global trade war breaks out and slows economies around the world, it could bring an end to the bull market that has raged for more than nine years. In the short-term, nothing good is going to come out of this trade war. And even in the mid-term, the pain is going to far, far outweigh any benefits. This is why a trade war should always be a last resort. As much as possible should be accomplished through negotiations, and it is unclear if negotiations were utilized as extensively as they could have in this case. If China wants to play hardball, they could start dumping U.S. Treasuries or cut off our access to rare earth elements. If they pulled either trigger, our level of pain would instantly be multiplied. We can definitely hurt China too, but we do not have any magic bullets that will force them to yield. Once a trade war begins, it can potentially last for many years, and let us not forget that history has shown us that trade wars can often lead to shooting wars. I believe that a tragic strategic mistake has been made, and this is not going to end well. Michael Snyder is a nationally syndicated writer, media personality and political activist. He is the author of four books including The Beginning Of The End and Living A Life That Really Matters.
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#1. To: Deckard (#0)
(Edited)
No, it won't. China is the country with the unstable economy balanced precariously on top of a shadow-banking system that routinely cooks its books and refuses to mark assets to market. Watch and see.
OMG do you really like carrying the water for the commies? No such thing as free trade and the closest thing is fair trade which is what Trump is aiming for. Truth is almost every article you post is about bashing America to destroy it instead of fighting the real fight which is socialism. In fighting socialism you must not just pull the rug out from everyone which would cause a economic collapse and will bring in bigger government with more power. You basically defeat your own desire of a better freer America for destruction. Why?
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277 USA $18.57T USD Assuming arguendo that trade ceased, China would lose 506/11200 or 4.5% of its GDP USA would lose 130/18570 or 0.6% of its GDP https://www.thebalance.com/trade-deficit-by-county-3306264 Most of the trading partners that the United States has deficits with fall into the first two categories. The two largest are China and Japan. Some of the largest deficits are with countries in the last category. They include Canada, Mexico, and Germany. That's why the countries with which the United States has the largest trade deficits in goods are not always its most important trading partners. Some nations export a lot without importing much. But the top five trading partners also have the largest deficits. Please note that the Census provides trade data by country for goods only, not services.
And another thing. America imports a shitload more than it exports. So in other words heavy socialist countries will lose because they depend on US to buy their stuff! The people here that export to other countries tend to be big global companies paying low wages or selling military equipment that really should not. As long as other countries subsidies and uses tariffs the proper course is to fight for fairness even if that is tariff war.
Got to love facts!
Chinese Mandarins are smarter than we are by about 15 IQ points. They are better educated. They are more industrius and motivated. If you want anything done, go to the Chinese not spoiled indolent Americans.
I believe its only 5iq points. But that is still quiet a bit. Its only going to get worse with the push for socialism in western world and the dumbing down that comes with socialism.
But in the short-term we won’t see any of that. This dood obviously gets paid by the word,but the whole thing can be summed up by the two sentences above. A little bit of pain now is FAR better than an eternity of pain we will get if we do nothing.
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
AND......,they are ALWAYS owned or controlled by the big international banks that care about nothing BUT profits. No matter how hard I try,I just can't seem to work up much sympathy for people who own international banks who whine when their profits go down. They got rich to start out with by selling war and misery.
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
Complete and total BullBush. It may SEEM to be that way because their movers and shakers in a police state and stand out to be easily noticed in their closed society,and OUR movers and shakers tend to have multiple passports,no loyalty to any country or anyone but themselves and their families,and they have front men to take any hits. One of the most important things the US needs to do is to eliminate multiple citizenships,and tax the hell out of the profits of foreign-owned businesses. You and I get arrested if WE try to take 10 grand out of the country,yet George Soros,with multiple citizenships,can move hundreds of millions out and nobody blinks.
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
Actually - the author is a Republican Doesn't mean they will not work in conjunction with commies. Look about McCrazy.
I didn't see McStain endorsing Snyder. What is it with you Trump cultists - seems as if whenever anyone writes a piece that questions the policies of Dear Leader, even if it's a die hard conservative who has the criticisms, you immediately call him a commie?
I have been bitching about one sided free trade for decades! You good with one sided free trade???????
We do not all have to be smart. They are not smarter than Jews, so we have them covered.
Hopefully with a far more balanced trade exchange with China. Why remain stagnant out of fear? The handwriting is on the wall. The US can NOT continue to be on the hook for a $400 billion trade deficit EVERY YEAR with China if we are to survive. Not that the globalists elites and George H. Bush, Bubba, Dubya, and 0bama care a whit about the USA. Nor any Democrat-Communist. But then they never did. But they *did* d*mn well knew American factories and industries couldn't compete with ChiCom slave-labor and eventually shutter; They knew American R&D would not get reimbursed for the outright theft of hundreds of billions, stolen patents and tech espionage. AND they d@mn well knew the US economy would eventually be brought to our knees. ENTER TRUMP. ONLY the ballsy Donald Trump would have acted on tariffs. ONLY Trump believes that the only way the US economy recovers is by rebuilding our OWN factories and industries. Any other run-of-the-mill globalist politician would hang us out to dry. Trump instinctively rejected the same ol' reactionary fecklessness, the myopic, the politically-bought and naysayers who say, "But...But...where will this end??" Michael Snyder: "Ultimately the goal is more balanced trade with China, which would mean more jobs and more factories here in the United States. But in the short-term we won’t see any of that. Instead, all we are going to see is tremendous pain. This is All or Nothing, and yes, of course some "pain" must occur. It seems as though Snyder prefers the Magic-Wand method. I guess the Snyders never have had to bust their tail and sacrifice. By presuming "tremendous pain" he just jumped the shark. This is also where his critique became a subtle propaganda/hit-piece on Trump. We see this kind of slant on EVERYTHING Trump does or doesn't do. Yes, there will necessarily be some pain. Yes, short term it will hurt. This IS a long term plan -- a notion an impatient, spoiled America is not used to. Trump is the Cure; Poppy, Bubba, Dubya and the Commie-Mooslem were the Disease. Maybe Michael Snyder should be blaming THEM instead of jumping on the bandwagon, melting like a snowflake because his latte at Starbucks might cost another dollar per cup.
Great post. Facts and figures and projections are very helpful (instead of reactionary hysteria of tariffs.)
You basically defeat your own desire of a better freer America for destruction. Why? True dat. WHY, DECKARD?? Instead of defending his position and articulating why you might be wrong, Deckard posts a Rand Paul tweet page. Yes, it was an easy way the blow you off, AND it was noted.
Absolutely.
If 15 IQ points mattered fully, Mandarin Chinese wouldn't be self-inflicted slaves to Communism, would they? As we've noted in these United States from the "college educated", "better educated" is relative. That said, the formal "education" and common sense IQ of the average American (aka Democrat) has plummeted
The above is the succinct truth of the matter. But given how half of the US citizenry are delusional ideologues of the Dem-socialist Party, they are apparently willing to sign off on a high-pain/suicidal future like the Europeans.
...They got rich to start out with by selling war and misery. I'd like to see more articles/opinions on THIS phenomena (OH WAIT -- those banks and internationalists often "invest" in editorials that conspicuously avoid the obvious.)
+100
Which these days means...nothing. On an issue that is clearly pro-capitalist and pro-MAGA, Snyder not onlt fails to have Trumps back...he stabs it, taking a cheap shot.
Michael Snyder didn't so much as "question" the policy of fair tariffs and policy that would help America reestablish our own manufacturing and industry; He got paranoid and stabbed away at the policies -- WITHOUT UNDERSTANDING THE BASIC PRINCIPLES. Since you mentioned "Commies", ONLY Commies and politicians with ties to international lobbyists (with financial ties to ChiCom industry) would oppose fair tariffs and reduction of the $400b per year deficit. Smells a lot like Snyder is engaging in a quid pro quo in exchange for his criticism. "Die Hard Conservative"? No sale.
That bears repeating. For YEARS, I’ve been trying to get Dicktards posting associates to see, he’s nothing more than a libtard. Libtards would rather see us fail than Trump succeed.
I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
Repeated because it needs to be said again,and again,and again until the majority of the slow posters get it.
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
Which these days means...nothing You didn't even bother to check Snyder's credentials, did you? Of course not - it's easier to just label him a leftist. Snyder not only fails to have Trumps back... In Liberator's Trump über alles world, that would be treason. Any disagreement with Der Führer is a capital offense. The author of this article is a well respected economist. He has come to the conclusion that maybe Trump's tarriff plan is not as good for the economy as you all have claimed. And here you go, ready to string him up for studying the issue and coming up with his own opinion. You Trump cultists are no different than the Bush-Bots in 2000. Bush: 'You Are Either With Us, Or With the Terrorists' - 2001-09-21. Only you cultists have taken it a step further. "If you disagree with Trump on ANY issue, you must be a communist, leftist, liberal, progressive" - take your pick. Won't be long before you start calling those of us who don't genuflect at the altar of Trump "terrorists".
Actually I did. And no, I didn't "label" him a "Leftist". But maybe you can point that out for me? His rant started off well as he pointed out all the reasons he *should* support Trump's tariff policies.... And then he went off the rails. The guy's platform is "conservative" but he opposes conservative principle of FAIR tariffs and rebuilding American factories and industry. In Liberator's Trump über alles world, that would be treason. Hyperbole much? Take a sloooow breath. Your inner MSNBC is showing. Any disagreement with Der Führer is a capital offense. Back to the "Hitler!" silliness? Well done...COMRADE. The author of this article is a well respected economist. He has come to the conclusion that maybe Trump's tarriff plan is not as good for the economy as you all have claimed. "Well-respected" has become quite relative. A child can figure out that $400 billion deficit PER YEAR to China will eventually drain the US of its wealth. You Trump cultists are no different than the Bush-Bots in 2000. Bush: 'You Are Either With Us, Or With the Terrorists' - 2001-09-21. Only you cultists have taken it a step further. "HITLER!! CULTISTS!! Blah blah!! You're as hysterical, irrational, and insane as the Far Left. And frankly on the SAME SIDE of the Culture War and ongoing CW. "If you disagree with Trump on ANY issue, you must be a communist, leftist, liberal, progressive" - take your pick. Let me change your equation to the Truth: "IF YOU DISAGREE WITH TRUMP 90% of the time, and your pet-peeves are Trump, cops and weed, then look into a mirror, Comrade." You indict yourself. Won't be long before you start calling those of us who don't genuflect at the altar of Trump "terrorists". You mean as YOU call Trump and his supporters, "Der Fuhrer" and "Cultists"?? Rich.
Inner? He’s full fledged liberal. Black lies movement, OWS, legal drugs and open borders. I bet you a quarter that he’s even against child separation at the border. I bet it makes him weep.
I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
He’s full fledged liberal. It appears Deckard has switch gears, blending Liberal DNA with Libertarian DNA. FWIW, to me he always seemed to carry Libertarian DNA with Conservative genes. Comparing Dubya to Trump BY ANY MEASURE OF SUPPORT OR REASON is just pure ignorance and idiocy. I wouldn't know what's happened to alter his world-view, but as most of us realize we are now involved in what is a "warm" CW2, we must all choose a side. Black lies movement, OWS, legal drugs and open borders. I bet you a quarter that he’s even against child separation at the border. I bet it makes him weep. We know he's pro-weed, and like most libertarians, that bent can go off the rails when it comes to drugs. Has he gone on record as having supported the other issues you've mentioned? With respect to Open Borders and this "Trump=Hitler/poor-cage-kids" opinion, you might be right. Deckard -- you want to clarify?
Critical thinking and logic seems to have abandoned them. And/or the Mainstream Media propaganda has turned them. Most of the posters have been doing this a long time, many commenting at various forums for 15-20 years. You'd *think* by now that they'd know what's going on and exactly what's at stake. Trump has been at front-lines of commerce and trade and discussions with political heavy-hitters. He knows/knew exactly how American sovereignty, economy and culture was getting undermined (and by WHOM).
Naw,he's just one of those guys that HAS to be on the outside regardless of who the inside is in order to be the rebel of his dreams. He would probably be suicidal if he were to wake up one day and discover HE was in charge. Then again,he would probably just rant and rave at the people who put him in charge. Some people are just destined to never be happy about anything,
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
Exactly! He knows who is bought and sold in congress and the US Senate,and he knows who bought them. This is why the DNC and the alleged Republicans are so hysterical.
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
We don't have to "force" China to yield. It will yield, or collapse.
#2. To: Deckard (#0)
#3. To: Deckard (#0)
The U.S. trade deficit with China was $375 billion in 2017. The trade deficit exists because U.S. exports to China were only $130 billion while imports from China were $506 billion.
China $11.2T USD
The United States runs a deficit with countries who fit at least one of the following three criteria.
#4. To: Deckard (#0)
#5. To: nolu chan (#3)
#6. To: Deckard (#0)
Why America’s Trade War With China Will Be Absolutely Crippling For The U.S. Economy
#7. To: rlk (#6)
#8. To: Deckard (#0)
Ultimately the goal is more balanced trade with China, which would mean more jobs and more factories here in the United States.
#9. To: Justified (#4)
The people here that export to other countries tend to be big global companies paying low wages or selling military equipment that really should not.
#10. To: rlk (#6)
Chinese Mandarins are smarter than we are by about 15 IQ points. They are better educated. They are more industrius and motivated.
#11. To: Justified (#2)
OMG do you really like carrying the water for the commies?
“Truth is treason in the empire of lies.” - Ron Paul
Trump: My People Should ‘Sit Up in Attention’ Like Kim Jong-un’s Staff.
#12. To: Deckard (#11)
#13. To: Justified (#12)
Doesn't mean they will not work in conjunction with commies. Look about McCrazy.
“Truth is treason in the empire of lies.” - Ron Paul
Trump: My People Should ‘Sit Up in Attention’ Like Kim Jong-un’s Staff.
#14. To: Deckard (#13)
#15. To: rlk, Deckard (#6)
Chinese Mandarins are smarter than we are by about 15 IQ points.
#16. To: Deckard (#0)
So where will this end?
#17. To: nolu chan, Justified, (#3)
China - $636 billion traded with a $375 billion deficit.
#18. To: Justified, Deckard (#2)
Truth is almost every article you post is about bashing America to destroy it instead of fighting the real fight which is socialism. In fighting socialism you must not just pull the rug out from everyone which would cause a economic collapse and will bring in bigger government with more power.
#19. To: Justified (#4)
As long as other countries subsidies and uses tariffs the proper course is to fight for fairness even if that is tariff war.
#20. To: rlk (#6)
Chinese Mandarins are smarter than we are by about 15 IQ points. They are better educated.
#21. To: sneakypete (#8)
A little bit of pain now is FAR better than an eternity of pain we will get if we do nothing.
#22. To: sneakypete, Justified (#9)
AND......,they are ALWAYS owned or controlled by the big international banks that care about nothing BUT profits.
#23. To: sneakypete (#10)
One of the most important things the US needs to do is to eliminate multiple citizenships,and tax the hell out of the profits of foreign-owned businesses.
#24. To: Deckard (#11)
Actually - the author is a Republican
#25. To: Deckard, Justified (#13)
What is it with you Trump cultists - seems as if whenever anyone writes a piece that questions the policies of Dear Leader, even if it's a die hard conservative who has the criticisms, you immediately call him a commie?
#26. To: Justified (#2)
Truth is almost every article you post is about bashing America to destroy it instead of fighting the real fight which is socialism.
#27. To: Liberator (#16)
ONLY the ballsy Donald Trump would have acted on tariffs. ONLY Trump believes that the only way the US economy recovers is by rebuilding our OWN factories and industries. Any other run-of-the-mill globalist politician would hang us out to dry.
#28. To: Liberator (#24)
(Edited)
Actually - the author is a Republican
“Truth is treason in the empire of lies.” - Ron Paul
Trump: My People Should ‘Sit Up in Attention’ Like Kim Jong-un’s Staff.
#29. To: Deckard (#28)
(Edited)
You didn't even bother to check Snyder's credentials, did you? Of course not - it's easier to just label him a leftist.
Snyder not only fails to have Trumps back...
#30. To: Liberator (#29)
Hyperbole much? Take a sloooow breath. Your inner MSNBC is showing.
#31. To: GrandIsland, Deckard (#30)
Inner?
#32. To: sneakypete (#27)
Repeated...until the majority of the slow posters get it.
#33. To: Liberator (#31)
It appears Deckard has switch gears, blending Liberal DNA with Libertarian DNA. FWIW, to me he always seemed to carry Libertarian DNA with Conservative genes.
#34. To: Liberator (#32)
Trump has been at front-lines of commerce and trade and discussions with political heavy-hitters. He knows/knew exactly how American sovereignty, economy and culture was getting undermined (and by WHOM).
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