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Title: Germany Playing Kissy-Face With IranÂ’s Mullahs Is Going To Cost German Companies Plenty
Source: RedState
URL Source: https://www.redstate.com/streiff/20 ... -cost-german-companies-plenty/
Published: May 25, 2018
Author: streiff
Post Date: 2018-05-26 01:30:35 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 2567
Comments: 23

I’ve posted a few times on the efforts on the part of some European countries, Germany, in particular, to continue to trade with Iran despite US sanctions (see here | here). This, of course, is nonsense. German, and European, companies that are hit with sanctions are cut off from US markets and, more importantly, their bankers are subject to sanctions, too. Two important things happened today that, hopefully, will hammer home to Europe that their plan to resist US sanctions on Iran won’t work.

First, we have Ambassador Richard Grennell. Grennell, you’ll recall, is the guy who gave the Washington Post a brief bout of fecal incontinence when he tweeted, shortly after confirmation:
As @realDonaldTrump said, US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy. German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.

— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) May 8, 2018

Tonight Grennell was on Fox and he reiterated that warning, only in much more stark terms:
The awesome Amb. Richard Grenell lays down the law: Companies can either "choose to do business with the United States, or they can choose to do business with Iran; but they're not going to be able to do both." pic.twitter.com/Cx0plpYJad

— Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) May 25, 2018

Also today, Saudi Arabia declared that German firms are ineligible for government contracts:
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has ordered that no more government contracts be awarded to German companies, in a sign of continued irritation over Berlin’s foreign policy in the Middle East, German magazine Der Spiegel reported on Friday.

Citing no sources, it said the move was likely to hit major companies such as Siemens (SIEGn.DE), Bayer (BAYGn.DE) and Boehringer Ingelheim as well as carmaker Daimler (DAIGn.DE).

Relations between Germany and Saudi Arabia have been strained, and Saudi Arabia last year summoned its ambassador in Germany home for consultations over comments by then-Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel about the political crisis in Lebanon.

Saudi Arabia is a significant trade partner for Germany, generating 2017 exports worth 6.6 billion euros ($7.7 billion), according to Germany’s statistics office.

Siemens last year won an order worth around $400 million to deliver five gas turbines for a combined heat and power plant being built in Saudi Arabia. Daimler soon after secured an order for 600 Mercedes‑Benz Citaro buses from Saudi bus operator SAPTCO.

A senior German businessman in Saudi Arabia, who asked to remain anonymous, told Reuters on Friday that especially the healthcare sector was currently feeling added scrutiny when applying for Saudi tenders.

“They have even been asking: Where are the products coming from? Are they made in Germany? Do you have other manufacturing sites? And as soon as this is made in Germany, they have been rejecting any German applications for tender,” the person said.

This is a tightening of screws on the EU. Not only will companies be cut off from US markets but the Saudi market will be off limits as well. Unless they are willing to accept Iran as their only trading partner, they have to fall in line.


Poster Comment:

LF's contingent of America-haters and EUroweenies will be inconsolable.

If the Saudis are onboard for a German boycott, so are the rest of the Gulf oil states (other than Qatar).

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 11.

#1. To: Tooconservative (#0)

Interesting development.

The way this game will play out is fairly clear.

Vicomte13  posted on  2018-05-26   6:37:16 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Too Conservative (#1)

Germany wants to trade with Iran, and so does France. Whereas before Obama made the deal with Iran, the Germans and French somewhat glumly stayed out of making deals with the Iranians, once the US authorized that they went in big, similar to the way that France was very heavily invested in Saddam's oil industry.

When the Iraq war came, the French did not join the coalition of the willing, because W Bush would not vouchsafe their oil interests after the fall of Saddam. That was the French price for alliance, but of course the oilmen running the White House at the time intended those spoils for their cronies, and were willing to alienate the French at the time.

So the US went into Iraq in the "coalition of the willing", but without a UN mandate, because France would not consent, and of course the Russians did not either.

Now, back then, Merkel was standing atop a Germany at its postwar height. Germany did not uncouple from France - that would be the end of Europe. But the Germans did distance themeselves, in doing so, emerged as the putative "leaders" of the EU, in the sense that they are the largest economy.

And so it came to pass, in the 'Naughties, that France and Germany were somewhat apart, newly expanded Europe was feeling dynamic, and Germany was feeling cocky. The East was where the future lay, and Germany is at the threshold of the East. Germany did not thumb her nose at France, rather, it was akin to it being Friday night and France was left waiting at home without a date, because Germany was off sowing some wild oats.

It felt great to be a Francophobe then - even the Senate cafeteria was serving "Freedom Fries".

But then some shit went down.

First off, the French turned out to be dead right about Iraq. It was a quagmire, Saddam didn't have WMD, and the fall of Baghdad turned out to be as much of a victory for the US as the fall of Moscow was to Napoleon in 1812. Napoleon slept in the Kremlin, waiting for the Russians to capitulate. Instead, they burnt their own capital.

Likewise, Iraq exploded into an insurrection and terrorist guerilla that went on, and on, and on. Iran was greatly strengthened, as the new, sullen, Shi'ite Republic of Iraq grew up. And this new Iraq was no friend of the USA at all. Cheney's pals never got the oil concessions. The Americans ended up spending a trillion dollars to create an Iranian satellite, and deeply alienated France and Russia.

Then the financial crisis hit, and everywhere was staggering from that, which caused Greece to go tits up, and all of a sudden Germany found the bloom off its rose. Merkel tried to brazen it out with the tough "We are the dominant economy in Europe" schtick, but it failed. The Germans did not succeed in imposing their economic sanctions on Greece. Instead, the German taxpayers bankrolled the Greek relief.

Meanwhile, Merkel pressed German and European interests forward, and coupled with America to break the Ukraine, which resulted in the Russian invasion of the Crimea.

The War on Terror in the Middle East continued to pay interest, as both Sunni terror and Iranian=sponsored insurrection spread through Iraq into Syria, provoking a flood of refugees into Turkey, and thence, Germany. Merkel once again played a bad hand, open the doors, and alienated the Eastern Europeans.

At the other end of Europe the British chose Brexit.

And so now, a sort of replay is about to happen as happened in Iraq with French interests back in 2002. Of course, back then, the French and Russians weren't supposed to be there - Iraq was a paraiah state.

But THIS time, France and GErmany, and Russia, are all legitimately in Iran, with billions of dollars at stake, through a legitimate UN agreement, from which the USA has decided to unilaterally withdraw.

I'm not here to argue the merits or demerits of the US position on Iran. My point is to convey "What next" from the other side.

Three nations, two of them under the same leaders that experienced all of the above, are facing substantial loss. A fourth nation is also facing loss, has experienced a change of government, and has itself become estranged from the rest.

With Brexit, the UK has turned away from Europe. But with the unilateral Iranian deal nixing by the USA, the British are on the same losing side as Germany, France and Russia.

They have taken themselves out of the game, antagonized the Germans in particular, oppose Trump on Iran (and personally insulted him with their withdrawal of the official state visit of the Trumps, because of British animus towards the President on a personal level). Britain's influence in Europe is at a nadir, the Germans and French are aligned against them regarding Europe, but the "Special Friendship" with the USA has been scotched, by the British themselves, because of pique at Trump.

England has folded its cards and no longer has a seat at the table. And as BREXIT nears, another vote may happen in Scotland and in Northern Ireland, that sees the United Kingdom break up, as Scotland chooses Europe over isolation as England's junior partner. A much longer shot is that Northern Ireland, which likewise benefits dramatically from the EU, decides that its economic interests are better served in a federal structure with Eire, in Europe, than as an appendage of an isolated and sinking and increasingly nationalist England.

England is facing internal issues and is off the table of the international game.

Germany, France and Russia all are on the same side of the Iranian issue, Germany badly wants gas deals with Russia, and France has the same interests as ever.

Germany's star has sunk. Putin needs allies. France was right about the War on Terror, and has been very constant and consistent throughout the time.

The French are not hellbent on a fight with the USA. Never were. It's not about that. France has permanent interests, and those interests center on a strong and unified Western Europe that follows French economic structures, because those structures have emerged from French domestic policies.

So, the EU is as it is because that's the way that the French electorate wants to live, and the EU began as an alliance between a politically isolated and desperate Germany and a marginalized France after World War II.

The French have not changed their minds about anything, and have consistently built their country following the model they believe, and it has worked, over time, better than what the British decided to do, or the Germans.

Russia is isolated, in part because of what the Germans stirred up in Ukraine in Merkel's days of incompetent diplomacy on the world stage. The Americans always pursue their own interests, and occupy the field wherever they go. So France is always obliged to seek its opportunities in places America isn't. The Americans go into Israel and the Gulf states, so France had to seek its fortune in Iran and Iraq, just as, back in the day, the British went into India, so the French went into Indochina, or the British dominated East Africa, so the French dominated West Africa.

Germany has blown itself up through a series of incompetent actions - in Greece, in Ukraine, in throwing open their doors to Muslim immigration. The Germans are out of answers, and being scraped out of Iran - at the loss of billions - like shit off a boot.

Britain has blown itself up.

Russia is weak and is not able to manage a robust economy because the Russian autocratic mind simply cannot let entrepreneurialism strive: the political leaders are too dictatorial, and the "entrepreneurs" are gangsters, not honest businessmen.

France is doing pretty well, and hasn't made any bad mistakes in decades. With Macron, they shucked off ineffective leadership, and Macron is practical enough not to get into a direct pissing contest with Trump. Sure, France's interests are in many places diametrically opposed to the USAs - precisely because the French seek opportunities where the Americans are not - but Macron is much more diplomatic than Britain's May - the British do not disguise their contempt for Trump, and that's a mistake because he takes it personally. The Germans have alienated everybody and are weak and divided, but France is still there, steady as a rock, still sharing an economy, in stronger shape across the board.

It's just not hard to see what will happen. France, Germany and Russia are aligned in interest regarding Iran. The USA is threatening Russia and Germany outright, but Macron has decent relations with Trump. Macron and Trump are playing the game with each other. What that means is that Trump does not have a public beef with Macron and France. Germany and the British, in different ways, have insulted or challenged him, but France plays the diplomatic game.

Germany wants energy deals with Russia.

Putin wants to break out of his isolation.

France, Germany and Russia all have interests in Iran, and Germany and Russia have different reasons to want to break out of their isolation.

France's interest is this: that the continent should be militarily secure, that the EU should be structured on French legal norms, that the Americans should fade from the continent leaving France as the dominant local military power that ensures the peace through its own nuclear umbrella, that Britain's influence in the EU be reduced to zero, allowing it to much more fully and consistently follow the French norms, that Germany remain an economic powerhouse that can be taxed to provide the chief form of transfer payments that the EU's VAT system provides (agricultural subsidies, the bulk of which go to France), that Eastern Europe be economically firmly within the EU orbit, and unable to play off the EU and the US over security issues.

France wants calm relations with the Muslim world, with a lot of trade and development opportunities.

All of this seems likely to go France's way. The British and Germans have bloviated and beaver-dicked themselves into isolated and crappy circumstances, France and Russia have no natural points of friction - France is the least threatening Western power to Russian interests, and the French style of doing business ignores the moralizing that causes tensions with Russia.

The US population is sick of Europe. Who would miss us in Europe? The British would. The Eastern Europeans definitely would - and our fading and departure there would not simply increase their anxieties vis a vis Russia, but would also vastly increase their dependency on France as the primary nuclear umbrella vouchsafing their security. The French, for their part, always like to make joint military units and alliances within Europe, and are people with whom the Eastern Europeans can reasonably deal. They fear the Russians, and they dislike the Germans. Historically, Eastern Europe looked to France many times to protect them. Before the age of nuclear weapons, that was hard for France to do, but today, "protection" really means a nuclear deterrent to keep the Russians out, and France not only IS capable of doing that (especially given that the Russians have no intention to invade Europe anyway), but would relish the role.

The Germans are conflicted over anything that has to do with force, and nobody wants to be under a German nuclear umbrella (least of all the Germans!). But France? It's not currently on the mind, outside of Paris, but it COULD be.

That's the point. Europe has come to a dead end, and about to have billions of dollars stripped from it, again, in the Middle East, because of a unilateral American action. The Americans are focused on forcing Germany, in particular, to publicly knuckle under, and the Germans will too, because in the short term they have no choice.

But with France, they DO have a choice. So do the Russians. And with the British out of the EU and no longer at the decision-taking table going forward, with the French economy and population both growing at a steady pace, with the Russians looking for a way out of their isolation, and the Germans having lost their confidence and having no way forward under their own steam, the only alternative is to knuckle under to Trump in the short term, and in the long term, and to continue to eat shit, or to knuckle under to Trump in the short term, but seek a way out of the trap in the longer term. And the way out is pretty clear. For Germany, and for Putin, France is the key to the whole thing. For Trump too. Want to get out of Europe? It can't fall apart more - because then we can't leave. Germany cannot lead anything. Britain can't either. Italy? God. They can't govern themselves. That leaves France, and that's not such a bad thing, because France is the least-offensive of all of the options to everybody. They're ANNOYING to us, but never dangerous. They're not a military threat to anybody outside of Africa, but they are economically much stronger than Russia, and they have the nuclear arsenal to wipe the Russians just as extinct as we do. And the Russians don't hate or fear the French, so there's no instant allergic reaction from them when the French do something. The French don't hate or fear the Russians either. France is, first and foremost, interested in amorally making money. That's the French thing: comfort, luxury, art - in peace. NATO was needed to keep the peace against the USSR. But the USSR is gone, and NATO is way too expensive and intrusive for the real threat.

Europe needs to revert to "normal", and the norm for European history since the fall of Rome has been that France is the most important country. Everybody in Europe goes on vacation in France, just like everybody else, and the French don't have the dark reputation. Also, they're really not interested in aggressive action and posturing. Like the Dutch, the French really just want to make money, and are not very discriminating about who their counterparties are. But they do believe in the rule of law and of contracts, which makes them better governors than the Italians.

So, that's the endgame of all of this. Trump gets his way in the short term. The Germans lose their interests and are mad. The Russians stay sullen and disengaged. The British dither in their own internal nonsense. The Italians steal from each other. The Spanish play. And the French work with the Dutch, Belgians, Luxembourgis, Swiss, Germans, Irish and everybody else, to make all of Europe look like a French administrative state, publicly agree with sanctions on bad actors and privately cheat...and reproduce. Above all that. And gradually the continent continues its 16-Centuries-and-counting trajectory of slowly turning into a a bunch of poor copies of France.

Thus has it been since Clovis, and thus shall it be until Christ comes back. And then at final judgment there will be two lines - the "Anglo-Saxons" and the "French". To the Anglo-Saxons, he will say: "You were pretty continent, but you did not love the poor." And to the French, he will say: "You were pretty good to the poor, but Me-o-Petes you didn't even TRY to keep it in your pants, did you?"

Hard cases.

Between then and there, things in Europe will drift messily without clear resolution, as they always do. But for now, Germany and Russia will drift closer to France, the Germans and Russians will bear the brunt of American opprobrium, while the French will cheat and pretty much get away with it. Same old, same old.

Vicomte13  posted on  2018-05-26   8:16:24 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: Vicomte13 (#4)

France wants calm relations with the Muslim world, with a lot of trade and development opportunities.

Then the French are not only stinky but stupid.

France will be a musilm country we will have to nuke someday.

A K A Stone  posted on  2018-05-26   9:03:54 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: A K A StoneVicomte13 (#8)

French are not only stinky but stupid.

Should I understand, that you Stone are fragrant like honeysuckle and wise like King Solomon?

A Pole  posted on  2018-05-26   9:29:50 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 11.

#12. To: A Pole (#11)

I kill honeysuckle when I see it.

I smell like Axe or Old Spice.

A K A Stone  posted on  2018-05-26 09:44:13 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 11.

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