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United States News
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Title: Bitcoin Is Falling Fast, Losing More Than Half Its Value in Six Weeks
Source: WSJ
URL Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bitcoi ... -value-in-six-weeks-1517556514
Published: Feb 2, 2018
Author: Steven Russolillo and Kenan Machado
Post Date: 2018-02-03 01:23:20 by Gatlin
Keywords: None
Views: 947
Comments: 34

Bitcoin plunged below $8,000 in intraday trading, extending its sharp rout since the start of the year in a selloff triggered by a widening regulatory crackdown on cryptocurrencies.

Late Friday in New York, bitcoin had recovered to $8,524, down 6.8% on the day after slipping below $7,700. That was the lowest level since November.

At its low point, the digital currency had fallen about 60% from an intraday record of $19,783 in December, according to research site CoinDesk Inc. That marks bitcoin’s third biggest drop over the past five years. It fell 76% in the spring of 2013 and 85% from November 2013 to January 2015.

Bitcoin’s sharp swings illustrate just how much the digital currency remains a highly illiquid and volatile investment, particularly relative to stock, bond or currency markets.

In its nine-year history, it has had five peak-to-trough declines of more than 70% apiece, said Charlie Bilello, director of research at New York advisory firm Pension Partners. It fell 94% in less than a month in 2010—and again over a five-month stretch in 2011—but both times bounced back.

The recent decline in some regards feels more severe, as the magnitude of the price drop offers a dose of reality to new investors who poured money into cryptocurrencies during last year’s rally. Many were drawn to the prospect of investing in currencies outside the control of central banks and governments, but now are having to succumb to market forces.

“Headlines for crypto have been mostly negative lately,” Thomas Lee, managing partner at New York-based Fundstrat Global Advisors, wrote in a note to clients. “It has been a terrible few weeks, but the fundamental positive story for crypto remains intact,” Mr. Lee added, referring to strong millennial interest in cryptocurrencies.

Robinhood, an online trading app that targets young people, this past week said more than one million people joined its wait list to trade cryptocurrencies after it announced plans to offer crypto trading services.

Meanwhile, some big banks are putting up roadblocks to buying bitcoin. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. said Friday that they no longer would allow credit-card holders to use the cards to buy bitcoin.

Regulatory scrutiny is behind much of the reason for bitcoin’s sudden fall. India is the latest country to crack down on the cryptocurrency market, following in the footsteps of China and South Korea. That pressure shows that governments are turning out to be much harder to circumvent than cryptocurrency advocates once thought.

Bitcoin fell 28% in January, its steepest monthly decline in three years.

In the bitcoin futures market, in which traders can bet on the ups or downs in the digital currency, hedge funds have shifted their positioning so bearish bets outnumber bullish ones by more than 3 to 1, according to data released Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. A week earlier, hedge funds had been biased toward the bullish side, the CFTC data show.

The current mood is a far cry from the end of last year, when cryptocurrency investment mania hit feverish levels. A popular bitcoin-services company called Coinbase briefly drew some 100,000 new customers a day around Thanksgiving, as bitcoin approached $10,000, up from under $1,000 at the start of 2017.

Prices more than doubled from there, peaking at $19,783.21 on Dec. 17. Then came a six-week slide.

Alex Beene, a 30-year-old from Nashville, Tenn., cashed out as the decline accelerated. He said he recently sold all his bitcoin, locking in a profit of over $60,000.

Mr. Beene, who writes children’s books and works in the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, said he bought most of his bitcoin in September, before prices surged over 500% in the following months.

“You’d wake up to $5,000 to $10,000 gains on consecutive mornings,” he said. “It was like a money train that wouldn’t end, but you could tell [it] wasn’t going to last.”

It didn’t.

Mr. Beene did keep some litecoin—an alternative digital currency—in his portfolio. The price of litecoin is down more than 60% from a high in December, according to research site CoinMarketCap.

He called the weekslong selloff “a scary scenario.”

Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said Thursday that the government doesn’t recognize digital money as legal tender and would “take all measures to eliminate use of these crypto-assets in financing illegitimate activities or as part of the payment system.”

Vaibhav Parikh, partner at Indian law firm Nishith Desai Associates, said some people might have misinterpreted, wrongly concluding the government was banning bitcoin.

“The Indian government said it will only crack down on the use of bitcoin for illegal activities and not on the currency itself,” he said.

Other governments, particularly in Asia, have taken stringent approaches to cryptocurrency.

South Korea is implementing new legislation aimed at cooling its red-hot bitcoin market. China has gone even further, ordering cryptocurrency exchanges to close and moving toward limiting bitcoin mining operations, in which new bitcoin are minted.

In Japan, $530 million of a cryptocurrency called NEM was swiped in a heist on the exchange Coincheck Inc.

In the U.S., regulators have warned of fraud in initial coin offerings, a new form of fundraising by which a company creates a new virtual coin or token and offers it for public sale. The offerings have attracted billions of dollars.

Even Facebook Inc. is cracking down. The social-media company said this past week that it would stop running ads promoting cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings.

“I don’t think this is the end of the line for cryptos, but I’m certainly not touching any until more stability can be reached,” Mr. Beene said.

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#1. To: All (#0)

Bitcoin biggest bubble in history, says economist who predicted 2008 crash

Gatlin  posted on  2018-02-03   1:29:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Gatlin (#0)

I never did find a way to sell cryptocurrency short. I knew that bubble had to burst but didn't find a way to cash in.

Tooconservative  posted on  2018-02-03   1:36:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Gatlin, TooConservative (#0)

Bitcoin, and leading alt crypto currencies definitely did see a dramatic sell off, pretty much uniformly at that, and that on top of a steady decline that's been running for the last 2-3 weeks. For the moment bitcoin seems to have stabilized in the mid 8K range, but it's the weekend. I imagine prices will now have to work to breach 10K, which used to be a comfortable place for it. Prices could drop further maybe even to the 6k -7k range but I do not expect cryptos to die.

I thought the news in India was that cryptos were outlawed straightaway, and that perception may have fueled this sell off. SK has also given pause to their regulatory freezes on cryptos after a public backlash. I suppose it will indeed be a fight between cryptos vs banks & govs, but unlike ordinary money, crypto currency is basically a "living" currency by virtue of the fact that it's supported with software which is upgraded on a continuing and as needed basis, and those upgrades will address resistances put up by banks and govs.

One example is an expected upgrade that would allow crypto holders to exchange their coins for other cryptos without need of a formal exchange. That would eliminate any need for formal exchanges which China and possibly SK are going after. Of course that doesn't allow purchasing of cryptos with fiat, but it's one example of how cryptos can adapt.

I also wonder about the future's market that bitcoin has been saddled with. With cyrptos, a futures market is an artifical market and a means by which price manipulation can occur as there is never any actualy bitcoin that is procured, ever, in those futures contracts. All are settled in cash, and only on the future's market can shorting be conveniently done. All it takes is a bank or two to covertly place bets with each other to push the real market down. Same old price manipulation they've done and still do with gold and silver.

In any event, prices on cryptos really grew too fast in Nov & Dec so this could be technically viewed as a not unreasonable, albeit scary drop for crypto holders. As the article points out, such pullbacks are not unprecedented at all. As the saying goes, bad money drives out good, and so until crypto currecies qualify as "bad money" it won't be in circulation. That won't happen until A) transactions of crypts is both fast and cheap, and B) there is a serious pull back in price, (not unlike what we've seen these past few weeks). Once that happens and scares people, they'll save their dollars and euros and instead spend their bitcoin, and that will be when it finally becomes a currency. Until then, unless price manipulation interferes, it will continue to be a wild ride.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   4:12:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Pinguinite (#3)

Bitcoin is a computer program backed by nothing. It is utterly worthless. Except for the people who sell to suckers before it crashes.

A K A Stone  posted on  2018-02-03   8:15:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Pinguinite (#3)

As the saying goes, bad money drives out good, and so until crypto currecies qualify as "bad money" it won't be in circulation. That won't happen until

A) transactions of crypts is both fast and cheap, and

B) there is a serious pull back in price, (not unlike what we've seen these past few weeks). Once that happens and scares people, they'll save their dollars and euros and instead spend their bitcoin, and that will be when it finally becomes a currency.

Until then, unless price manipulation interferes, it will continue to be a wild ride.

Interesting overview. Bookmarked.

Liberator  posted on  2018-02-03   9:27:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: A K A Stone (#4)

Bitcoin is a computer program backed by nothing. It is utterly worthless. Except for the people who sell to suckers before it crashes.

In that sense it has a lot in common with fiat currency, which is also backed by nothing, but people objecting on these grounds don't seem to object as much about bitcoin. But at least it has the advantage of being both decentralized and much easier to send and receive, and can't be created out of thin air.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   11:04:13 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Pinguinite (#6)

and can't be created out of thin air.

It is created out of thin air.

Dollars are backed by the u.s government and will always be accepted here.

Just my two cents.

A K A Stone  posted on  2018-02-03   11:07:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: A K A Stone (#7)

Dollars are backed by the u.s government and will always be accepted here.

All over. Travel to any foreign country and they love American money. They treat it like you're paying with gold.

Then try paying with bitcoin.

misterwhite  posted on  2018-02-03   11:20:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: A K A Stone (#7)

It is created out of thin air.

Some cryptos could be created on simple demand, but not bitcoin. It requires extended, heavy CPU power to create, and that means electricity. It's not inaccurate to say bitcoin is monetized electricity just as physical coins of whatever sort are monetized metal. Of course, one cannot convert bitcoin back to electricity, but at least it's creation requires the consumption of a resource that has cost. Compare to US dollars, the vast majority of which don't even exist in printed form...

Dollars are backed by the u.s government and will always be accepted here.

The US dollar must be accepted by government, and is mandated by legal tender laws to be accepted by anyone in the states. Bitcoin has no such need for the legal arm of the gov to enforce acceptance. I should think that anyone who takes exception to US gov printed fiat would consider bitcoin an improvement in at least some ways.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   11:22:22 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: misterwhite (#8)

Then try paying with bitcoin.

I'd be willing to bet that upon making the offer, anyone who is able to accept bitcoin would easily do it over dollars in the same way they'd likely accept silver & gold over dollars. But heavy demand on bitcoin's transaction system has made transactions expensive or time consuming, both of which are being remedied.

Bad money drives out good because bad money is worth less, and at the moment, US dollars are the bad money which will keep retail transactions of bitcoin at a minimum.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   11:29:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: misterwhite (#8)

Well, bitcoin is widely accepted for paying for illegal items on the dark web.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2018-02-03   15:42:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: Pinguinite (#10)

What or who is backing bitcoin?

I agree that all currency is useful if it is perceived as being worth something.

I see bitcoin as being a house of cards.

Tulips.

no gnu taxes  posted on  2018-02-03   15:52:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: no gnu taxes (#11)

Well, bitcoin is widely accepted for paying for illegal items on the dark web.

I agree.

misterwhite  posted on  2018-02-03   16:09:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: no gnu taxes (#11)

Well, bitcoin is widely accepted for paying for illegal items on the dark web.

And cars are also the vehicle class of choice for robbers fleeing banks they rob. But we don't outlaw cars.

And guns are the preferred murder weapons. But we don't outlaw guns. Well, most of us don't.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   17:38:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#15. To: no gnu taxes (#12)

What or who is backing bitcoin?

Who or what backs gold? There's no lawful mandate on it's worth. At least none that would be enforced, as the official value of a "dollar" is an amount of silver that has a current market price around $20.

I agree that all currency is useful if it is perceived as being worth something.

I see bitcoin as being a house of cards.

Tulips.

That comparison is made a lot. And it's been made for quite a while, which is starting to be something noteworthy of itself. I think the tulip craze ran for about 3 years. Bitcoin has been around for about 9.

But you couldn't cut up tulip bulbs and spend a part of them. Bitcoin has the advantage of being very finely divisible to an extreme amount. Bitcoin can also be transmitted worldwide easily regardless of political or economic restrictions, which scores points over the usual fiat money. These two factors both make bitcoin qualify much better as money than tulip bulbs did.

I think people who view bitcoin as a mere commodity like wheat or soybeans will definitely see it as being in a bubble, and understandably so. But if it instead is the future of money, then while it is obviously has seen and will see more extreme price fluxuations both up and down, it is, in general, not in a bubble at all. And that's how I see it.

Govs and banks will throw fits over that, and we're seeing that now. It could be a tough fight, maybe one that could be a long drawn out one, but unlike gold and silver that they have fought against with market manipulation, crypto currency is pretty much alive, as developers can and will make it adapt and mutate to prevail against whatever tactics banks and govs resort to. Gold and silver has no such ability to adapt or mutate.

What drives crypto currency is classic market forces, and nothing else. And market forces simply do not go away, ever.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   17:59:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#16. To: Pinguinite (#15)

What drives crypto currency is classic market forces, and nothing else.

Unlike gold or silver which has "intrinsic value" as a metal in manufacturing operations that produce products designed to be useful for society, what drives crypto-currency value?

buckeroo  posted on  2018-02-03   18:07:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#17. To: buckeroo (#16)

Unlike gold or silver which has "intrinsic value" as a metal in manufacturing operations that produce products designed to be useful for society, what drives crypto-currency value?

Gold & silver along with all other metals used to mint coins obviously score higher on this metric than any crypto ever will.

But cryptos score just as well on this as paper money does, as the vast majority of US dollars exist only in electronic form. So your challenge/question is valid, but should be leveled against fiat as well.

And fiat has worked as money for quite some time, whereas gold & silver largely have not.

There are several metrics by which a candidate money is measured. Intrinsic value is only one of those several, and is the only one that it scores badly on.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   18:26:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#18. To: Pinguinite (#17)

So your challenge/question is valid, but should be leveled against fiat as well.

OK.

"Fiat" has "intrinsic value" along with gold and silver. Why? It is backed by the POWER of government. It is designed to permit portability of transactions in day-to-day actions and speeds operations, improving the economy. Cryptocurrency contains no intrinsic value, whatsoever other than speculative value.

buckeroo  posted on  2018-02-03   18:35:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#19. To: buckeroo (#18)

I like the way you said that.

A K A Stone  posted on  2018-02-03   18:42:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: buckeroo (#18)

Why? It is backed by the POWER of government.

That's not what "intrinsic value" means. If it did, all it would take is an act of Congress to grant cryptos intrinsic value.

The forced acceptance by government mandate makes it acceptable as money which is one quality money must have, but bitcoin is, at this time, demonstrating good acceptance without any mandate.

No, neither bitcoin nor US dollars has any intrinsic value.

It is designed to permit portability of transactions in day-to-day actions and speeds operations, improving the economy.

Money is designed for that. And bitcoin is designed with that quality.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   20:12:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#21. To: A K A Stone (#7)

Dollars are not backed by the government and have not been for a long time. They are backed by the F.D.I.C. provided you hold an account with a bank. And not all banks and savings and loans have investments that are fully backed by the government nor are they stable investments either. Gold is the real hedge against the falling dollar. Gold is the lawful money that has always been recognized by the banking industry. But oddly enough the US government will not allow it to be re-instated back into circulation to clear up the national debt. And as for bitcoin, if banks will not use bitcoin as 10% of their money reserves to stay in business, then bitcoin is not a stable investment at all.

goldilucky  posted on  2018-02-03   20:37:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#22. To: goldilucky (#21)

See buckeroos 18 he said it better than I.

A K A Stone  posted on  2018-02-03   20:59:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#23. To: Pinguinite, borisy (#20) (Edited)

buckeroo: It is designed to permit portability of transactions in day-to-day actions and speeds operations, improving the economy.

Pinguinite: And bitcoin is designed with that quality.

Yeah. In less than thirty days, Bitcoin has dropped over 60% in value. There is no safety margin. Anyone that buys into that crockpot mania needs to see Borisy for evaluation.

buckeroo  posted on  2018-02-03   21:03:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#24. To: buckeroo (#23)

Anyone that buys into that crockpot mania needs to see Borisy for evaluation.

Banjo Boy is a shrink or an investment expert? Yo no comprendo.

Fred Mertz  posted on  2018-02-03   21:17:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#25. To: goldilucky (#21)

They are backed by the F.D.I.C. provided you hold an account with a bank.

The FDIC insures deposits, which is a different thing from "backed". At least in the context of this discussion.

And as for bitcoin, if banks will not use bitcoin as 10% of their money reserves to stay in business, then bitcoin is not a stable investment at all.

Banks will in no way convert cash deposits into bitcoin. The SEC would be on them in a heartbeat. In spite of the huge profit potential right now, they should be ensuring safety of customer deposits first and foremost, and bitcoin is, indeed, not stable at all right now, as has been proven. There is a lot of demand, speculation, fear and unknowns, all at the same time, not to mention potential manipulation of the futures markets by hostile bank interests.

What's scary for them about bitcoin is that they cannot do fractional reserve banking with bitcoin. While a $1k cash deposit at a bank allows them to do a $10k loan, they just give them a check book and a $10k computer entry on a new bank account. No cash ever trades hands. But they can't magically come up with a bitcoin loan like that.

All in all, I don't think there is much room for conventional banks in a crypto currency world, but maybe someone will figure out a way to do it.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   21:39:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#26. To: buckeroo (#23)

Yeah. In less than thirty days, Bitcoin has dropped over 60% in value.

60% is nothing. From the article above:

In its nine-year history, it has had five peak-to-trough declines of more than 70% apiece, said Charlie Bilello, director of research at New York advisory firm Pension Partners. It fell 94% in less than a month in 2010—and again over a five-month stretch in 2011—but both times bounced back.

As I write, bitcoin is back up above 9k. There's no argument on volatility. One should scale the percentage of a portfolio into bitcoin accordingly, and not bet the farm on it.

But for me to be proven wrong, bitcoin and cryptos as a whole would need to crash and die, just as the tulip craze did. And while massive retreats so large they'd be called crashes in any regular commodity can happen to bitcoin, it has demonstrated a come-back resiliancy. And as long as they are in the market & demonstrate the power to come back, crypto currency will be the kudzu plant the bankers can cut back on massively, but just won't die.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-03   21:54:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#27. To: A K A Stone, buckeroo (#22)

"Fiat" has "intrinsic value" along with gold and silver. Why? It is backed by the POWER of government. It is designed to permit portability of transactions in day-to-day actions and speeds operations, improving the economy. Cryptocurrency contains no intrinsic value, whatsoever other than speculative value.

Bills of Credit "money" have no intrinsic value. Gold and Silver do have intrinsic value. Gold is the money of kings, Silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants, but debt (Bills of Credit) is the money of slaves.

goldilucky  posted on  2018-02-03   23:13:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#28. To: Pinguinite (#25)

What's scary for them about bitcoin is that they cannot do fractional reserve banking with bitcoin. While a $1k cash deposit at a bank allows them to do a $10k loan, they just give them a check book and a $10k computer entry on a new bank account. No cash ever trades hands. But they can't magically come up with a bitcoin loan like that.

Which really should be of concern to the banking industry especially with online banking as it is right now. If the internet were to be cut off, just imagine how severe it would be for the banks as well not to leave out bitcoin.

goldilucky  posted on  2018-02-03   23:16:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#29. To: Pinguinite (#25)

Banks will in no way convert cash deposits into bitcoin.

Why would they need to. They can just make their own "cryptocurrency". There is an infinite number of numbers. So there are an infinite number of cryptocurrencies. Maybe it can be open source and we can all do it and get rich.

A K A Stone  posted on  2018-02-03   23:33:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#30. To: A K A Stone (#29)

Why would they need to. They can just make their own "cryptocurrency". There is an infinite number of numbers. So there are an infinite number of cryptocurrencies.

True. Zimbabwe pretty much did their own crypto currency too, only it wasn't crypto currency it was just fiat. But it was kinda like crypto currency in that they did discover there was an infinite number of digits, and came close to printing them all on their currency.

Amusement aside, my point is that the unique thing about bitcoin is there is a limited number of them available. Only about half of all bitcoins that can possibly be mined have been mined. There is a limit to the number built into the bitcoin architecture, and that's by design because only a currency that is limited in supply will have value. If banks issue their own crypto, it likely would not be decentralized, meaning the bank has control over it's issuance and value, which would make it no different that fiat dollars, as they have that control over dollars now.

The theory is, and it's being proven, is that the public will have a greater desire for a decentralized, limited supply money than they will for fiat US dollars that the banks and the gov have been creating and flooding the market and world with, particularly as part of their quantitative easing program.

Maybe it can be open source and we can all do it and get rich.

There are indeed hundreds of crypto currencies out there that can be bought, and no limit to the number of new ones that could be created by anyone. There are differing qualities and attributes to differing cryptos, but I do think most of them will end up as trash, eventually. But a few, maybe only one, will be successful. It could be bitcoin, but it could be something else. If banks want to compete in that market, they will do so, but I don't think any centrally issued crypto is going to be attractive to the general public. For those who do want something centrally issued, they can just get US dollars.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-04   1:15:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#31. To: Pinguinite (#30)

Amusement aside, my point is that the unique thing about bitcoin is there is a limited number of them available. Only about half of all bitcoins that can possibly be mined have been mined. There is a limit to the number built into the bitcoin architecture, and that's by design because only a currency that is limited in supply will have value. I

, if you find the idea of thinking of Bitcoin as simply a number is too simplistic, then just think of it as a money bag with a lock, the internet version of this. Money goes from transmittor to transmittee, and the transmittee gets a unique code to unlock the bag. What's that really worth? Let's now talk about uniqueness. Bitcoin does have some value because there are only a finite number of Bitcoins available, because the algorithm that is used limits Bitcoin to a particular number of units, of which there should only be somewhere in the neighborhood of 21 million that fit the algorithm.

Uniqueness certainly has value. Because there is only one Hope Diamond, it is estimated to have a value in the neighborhood of $350 million. Because there are only 100 of that 24¢ stamp with the upside down airplane printed in 1918, they are estimated to be worth about $1 million each. Ditto for rare coins, original Picasso paintings, etc.

But here is where the fundamental flaw in Bitcoin's value lies: It is simply a number, and numbers are infinite -- there will never be a shortage of numbers. Even if you are the world's greatest mathematician and think that you found the largest number ever, there is always that number plus one, plus two, etc.

So, Bitcoin may be limited to 21 million numbers, but that doesn't mean that somebody else can't come up with a similar algorithm and thereby create their own unique set of numbers, i.e., their own cybercurrency. In the larger scheme of things, Bitcoin isn't unique. Quite the opposite, as anybody who comes up with their own currency can begin to compete with Bitcoin and any other such currency. It's very much like competing with technical cheeseburgers -- anybody with the necessary mathematical skills can cook one up.

For example, let's say that somebody creates a cybercurrency that is based on known prime numbers. There are about 50 million of those, so another 50 million cybercurrency numbers could be created. Indeed, the recent boom in Bitcoin has triggered numerous companies offering their own cybercurrencies, and the amount of such numbers that they can generate is limited only by the ability of their mathematicians to create the necessary algorithms, which of course is similarly infinite.

According to that tome of all knowledge known as Wikipedia, as of November 27, 2017, there were 1,324 cybercurrencies in use. Just multiple each cybercurrency by the number of units they each support, and you get a pretty big number. And that is just the presently existing cybercurrencies, recalling that all it really takes is a sharp mathematician to come up for an algorithm for a new one.

And that brings us back to the main point: Cybercurrency units are simply numbers, and there is not a finite supply of numbers. Rather, the numbers available are infinite. This further means that the supply of cybercurrency units is likewise infinite. This has profound implications for pricing.

The true value of any widget is determined by the aggregate street price of the item, i.e., the sum total of what all units could be purchased for today, divided by the number of additional units which are available for sale. This is where uniqueness comes into play. There is only one Hope Diamond, which means that you take its estimated value of $350 million and divide by one, yielding $350 million. Collectively, those 24¢ stamps with the upside-down airplane are worth $100 million, but there are 100 of them, so they are worth about $1 million each. Or think of it simply in common-sense terms: The more there are of something, the less valuable each one is; if the market is flooded with something, they each have little value. Consumers see this every day at the gas pump, as the price of fuel varies primarily based upon available oil supplies.

Herein lies the problem with cybercurrency, which is that there are an infinite number of cybercurrency units available. Divide anything by infinity, and you get a number that is almost zero -- not quite zero -- but as close as you can get to it as possible. This is true even if we assign a current aggregate value of all the existing cybercurrency units at $500 billion. Because it is not quite zero, we can assign it a value of 1¢, not because it is necessarily worth 1¢, but simply because that is the smallest unit by which we can designate value in our currency.

Actually, it is some number larger than zero, and thus 1¢, mainly because the Bitcoin folks have put in a lot of effort to keep each number unique and assignable to a given owner, and there are some merchants who will accept Bitcoin as if it were a government-issued currency. This is known as acceptability. Bitcoin has value in excess of 1¢ because it has some (albeit, pretty limited) acceptability. But how much does that really add, and how unique are those features as other cybercurrencies take hold? Suffice it to say that the answer is much closer to 1¢ than $15,000 per unit.

This now brings us to the economic law of supply and demand, by which value is determined by what a willing seller will let a unit go for, and what a willing buyer will pay for that unit, at a particular moment in time. Take the 24¢ stamp with the upside-down airplane as an example. Presumably, the U.S. Postal Service would honor the stamp only for 24¢, which is its face value. Otherwise, the stamp creates no other value. But collectors of stamps and other valuables would offer $1 million or more for such a stamp, due to its rarity, and their belief that the value of the stamp will increase over time.

And now for something completely different: Tulip bulbs.

Tulip bulbs have no intrinsic value, other than that they can produce a pretty tulip flower. Yet, beginning in 1636, the price of tulip bulbs in Holland began to skyrocket, as buyers started believing that -- with demand driven by exports to the apparently then tulip bulb hungry French - - the price of tulip bulbs would keep appreciating. They were right. Eventually, the price of a single tulip bulb hit many multiples of the average Dutchman's average wages, and reportedly 12 valuable acres of land were traded for one particular tulip bulb. Individual tulip bulbs were traded for many times each day, with the price increasing with each trade. Then, one day in February of the following year, 1637, the price of tulip bulbs quit going up, and by May 1, the price for tulip bulbs had fallen back to their original value. Thus, was tulip mania the first recorded bubble.

Many centuries later, more specifically in November, 2013, the President of the Dutch Central Bank, Nout Wellink, reflected on the tulip bulb bubble with the following: "At least then you got a tulip, now you get nothing." He was referring to Bitcoin.

But Wellink wasn't exactly right, since with Bitcoin you get a unique number. What that unique number is worth, as discussed above, is something pretty close to zero, which makes Wellink's statement much closer to the truth.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jayadkisson/2017/12/28/the-great-bitcoin- scam/#edcd6f95c1e7

A K A Stone  posted on  2018-02-04   2:44:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#32. To: A K A Stone (#31)

The only point this entire article makes could just as easily applied to the US dollar. The US gov & central banks can issue as many of them as they want, without limit, and with the quantitative easing programs since the housing crash of 2008, they have pretty much done that with amounts limited only by the response of the economy.

So in this way, how is the US dollar truly any better or any different from cryptocurrency?

So, Bitcoin may be limited to 21 million numbers, but that doesn't mean that somebody else can't come up with a similar algorithm and thereby create their own unique set of numbers, i.e., their own cybercurrency.

And not only can an infinite number of US dollars be created, but competing countries have come up with their own currencies. Please explain how that is any better that cryptos?

And not all cryptos are identical. As your quoted essay admits, there is a limited number of bitcoin available to be created. And while yes, an unlimited number of crypto currencies can be created (just like an unlimited number of fiat currencies can be created) there is only one bitcoin. Period. If all cryptos were identical, we wouldn't see bitcoin trading for many thousands of dollars and others like ripple trading for about 85 cents each. They are different.

There are hundreds or even thousands of cryptos in existance, but I do expect most all of them to fail.

But our world is changing in technology at an ever increasing pace. It's already impacted many areas of our lives and it is now starting to make an impact on the economy with crypto currency, and no one can stop that. To argue against cryptocurrency is like an Amish person arguing against electricity.

Pinguinite  posted on  2018-02-04   10:38:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#33. To: goldilucky, A K A Stone (#27)

Bills of Credit "money" have no intrinsic value. Gold and Silver do have intrinsic value. Gold is the money of kings, Silver is the money of gentlemen, barter is the money of peasants, but debt (Bills of Credit) is the money of slaves.

Your analysis is borrowed from over a hundred years ago. Allow my suggestion to sink into your cranium: private markets and associated economics are the basics of a supporting monetary policy: a consistent method of baseline VALUE.

buckeroo  posted on  2018-02-04   13:23:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#34. To: buckeroo (#33)

So you're saying that Article 1 Section 10 Clause 1 is outdated?

goldilucky  posted on  2018-02-04   13:36:41 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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