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politics and politicians Title: The Republican Rally To be sure, President Donald Trump still suffers from low approval ratings. “Based on approval ratings one year into a first term, Trump is the most unpopular president since at least Harry Truman,” notes Harry Enten of the website FiveThirtyEight today. But there are interesting trends in political polling data. Mr. Enten explains: And the improvement has been rapid. RealClearPolitics pegs the current Democratic advantage at 8.5 points, but that’s down from a 13-point edge as recently as late December. A New York Times report this week suggests more room for GOP improvement in public opinion surveys: The reason there is more room for improvement in Republican political fortunes is that according to the Times, most survey respondents still don’t believe they’re getting a tax cut. In fact, almost all of them are. As this reality becomes manifest in paychecks this winter, there’s no reason to think the signature Republican legislative achievement of the 115th Congress won’t become even more popular. As for the President who signed that legislation into law, ratings on a critical question are already on the rise. Mr. Trump remains underwater on the general question of his handling of the presidency, with a majority in virtually every poll expressing disapproval. But he is showing increasing strength on the issue of the economy, which just happens to be the issue that frequently decides elections. This week, the Economist/YouGov survey shows him ten points above water, with 49% approving of his handling of the economy compared to only 39% who disapprove. Meanwhile the latest Harvard/Harris poll, released today, also shows a Trump bump on this issue despite general voter disapproval of his job performance: By passing pro-growth tax reform, Republicans have given themselves more than a puncher’s chance of holding their congressional majorities. This will require bucking history, which usually shows a rough year for the President’s party in the first mid-term of his presidency. For example, in 1982, during President Ronald Reagan’s second year in office, Republicans lost 26 seats in the House. In 1994, Bill Clinton watched his Democratic colleagues lose 52 House seats. In 2010, during year two of Barack Obama’s tenure, the Democrats lost 63 seats. Why should 2018 be any different? When lawmakers enacted the Reagan tax cuts in 1981, Republicans blundered by agreeing to delay the implementation of many provisions. Without the immediate pro-growth boost, the U.S. economy shrank by nearly 2% in 1982 and voters registered their displeasure. In 1994 and 2010, voters were angry over government attempts (successful in 2010) to exert greater control over their health care. The current GOP majority hasn’t made such mistakes. Pro-growth policy, taking immediate effect, is becoming more popular. Today the Federal Reserve Bank of New York affirmed its estimate of 3.9% economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year, and is now forecasting another quarter above 3% in the first three months of 2018. That’s a good economic environment in any era, and a stark contrast to the slow growth of the Obama years. Game on. Poster Comment: I managed to snag this from behind the Journal's paywall. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread |
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