We have a much bigger hold on them than they on us. Truth is, we dont really NEED any of the consumer goods we import. We would be less comfortable, and life would be less stable, but we dont have to import anything. If China cut us off, our standard of living would fall because the cost of cheap goods would rise. We might do without cheap socks for a week until we started buying the from Vietnam. We get luxury goods like cars from stable permanent allies. Nobody NEEDS a Mercedes, but Germanys never cutting us off either. If we have a trade war with China, nobody here starved, or freezes, or goes without transportation or clothing or medicine. Prices go up and life is less sweet for the Wal-Mart class, that is all. But China has a revolution
We do need them and all our foreign trade partners just a bit more than you admit. I think you know this. Still, you are largely right. Any disruptions in trade would be brief. However for things like lithium batteries and other items that require rare earth metals, China has made itself pretty indispensable.
However for things like lithium batteries and other items that require rare earth metals, China has made itself pretty indispensable.
Yes, for a little while. Like Saudi Arabia and oil.
Every rare earth that is in China is in America's vast soil and throughout the oceans. In a war, China would cut us off and we would have to make do for awhile with the reserves we have.
And then American production facilities would come on line - either quickly because of massive government expenditures to rapidly develop a strategic resource, or more slowly as private actors bring the rare earths equivalent of fracking onto the scene. The oil embargo was in 1973. It took awhile to replace Saudi Arabia as the world's leading oil producer.
Americans with financial interests want their profits NOW, so everytihng is always breathless and dire. Truth is, a flat-stop worldwide trade embargo would leave a lot of countries starving and revolutionary in a hurry. Not us.
#26. To: Vicomte13, faith in government, asset forfeiture, thievery (#22)
Put your faith in farmland.
How many Cubans actually got out with their gold?
NONE got out with their farmland.
Some may have gotten out with their gold, at least it's portable. You can't take farmland with you when evil government begins confiscation. That was some dumb financial advise that you gave!
DACA Shithole Dreamers - Make America Great Again?
Do you know what's really dumb? Living your life as though you're going to be a refugee at any moment, investing all of that time, effort and fear into the belief that the American world is on the verge of falling to pieces.
It isn't. It isn't, and those people who spend their time worrying over the impending apocalypse would be far better served learning, first, WHY the American world is not really coming unraveled, the self-interest or insanity of those who say that it is, and also what is really likely to happen if it comes unraveled - how it REALLY would (sudden total meltdown and anarchy have never happened anywhere in the world, not anywhere - for civil society to utterly collapse, as in places like Somalia, takes decades of warfare and oppression and real evil, in a place where there is nothing - now name me a place in Europe or anywhere in Latin America - the places where Americans almost all come from - that has degenerated to anything like Somalia or the post holocaust apocalypse that preppers are looking forward to.
And now consider: you've survived the holocaust, the Zombie Apocalypse, etc. That just means you've survived the first wave of it. Sure, you might go on for a few years, in misery, at the margins of life, eking out an existence, but soon enough after that you're going to succumb to disease, famine, exposure, random violence or just plain old age.
The best prepared preppers and the wealthiest kings all end up in the grave also.
So, if you're REALLY going to be prepared to "get out", focusing on the inevitability of death itself, and figuring how you're going to prosper in the "what comes after death" period is a whole lot more beneficial (not to mention uplifting), then figuring out how you're going to manage to cling to a miserable three or four extra years of life in the ruins of a holocaust ravaged world in which everything you had and everybody you loved (if you're capable of loving people at all, that is) has died a grim death and is lost.
Ultimately we all lose to death. Preparing for THAT - and what comes next - is more worthwhile, because that WILL come - is more worthwhile, not to mention uplifting, then manically preparing for an "end of America" that is never going to come in your lifetime, and in the process letting real life and what you can do to advance your and your heirs status in the real world that actually is.
Gold is a pretty bad investment, all in all. The problem with it in the American world is simple enough:
It has no intrinsic value, only the value that a market will give it. You cannot eat it. You cannot fight with it. You cannot live in it. You cannot clothe yourself with it. You cannot use it to generate more wealth other than by spending it.
Because it is a physical object, you have to take physical possession of it and actually guard it physically. If you don't, it will be stolen and you will have nothing at all. In a functioning world, the existence of government, police and law and order act as a strong guard against anybody trying to steal your gold. And if they do anyway, you can buy insurance to get some of the value back.
Of course, if the law is strong enough to keep your stuff in your house basically safe, it is also strong enough to take your gold itself in times of economic crisis, which is what this American government already did. In 1933, the government confiscated the gold, and didn't let Americans legally own it again until 1972. The government can do it again. Between 1933 and 1972, you could not legally store your wealth as gold bullion. You had to engage in various subterfuges.
So, to be very clear, the gold hoarders during that long period - the folks who kept their wealth in illegal gold to preserve themselves from the collapse of America that never came - had to hide their wealth their whole lives, still faced having it stolen (as in all ages), could not readily USE that wealth to buy anything - holding it was illegal so converting it was hard. Earned no rate of return on it, and did not participate with that wealth in the active economy, where they could have earned much greater returns...by buying farmland, or by buying stocks, or bonds, or just about any other active, positive, dynamic, legal, open thing.
Essentially, they took their talent of gold and buried it in the ground, and still had a talent when the gold was finally legalized. Did they make some money on the first spike? Sure. But they ended up behind. Had they invested the original amount of money in 1933 in stocks, bonds, land - you name it - they would have had a lot MORE money in 1972 than they had when they no longer had to hide their gold.
Today, as long as the American system stays up, that remains true. Stocks, bonds, land, private business - active investments - they all pay better than gold. If you stuck it out in the stock market through the recent crash, or you bought lead - guns and ammo, or stock in the companies that make them - active things with a use - you made a lot more money than you did buying and holding gold.
The disadvantages of gold go further than that. The tax on long-term capital gains is 20%. The tax on qualified dividends is 20%. The tax on tax free municipal bonds is 0%. The tax on gains in gold is 25%. So, when you cash out of your gold, or when your heirs liquidate the position, you're going to give a quarter of your profit - or your heirs are going to give up to 40% of their inheritance.
Also, you can't spend gold. You have to convert it to dollars. You pay a premium for each conversion.
So, with gold, what've you got? An inert physical asset - a shiny rock - that you have to guard - that you pay a premium to buy and a premium to sell, and a tax if it grows in value. It more or less grows in value with inflation, while stocks and bonds and real estate beat inflation over time.
It's the ultimate passive activity. It treads water with inflation, nothing more.
By buying farmland, you are buying an asset that will produce profits every year, year after year, that can't be destroyed or stolen, that you can use yourself to grow food upon in the event of calamity, and that is taxed at a very low rate. It is easy to rent. It can't be "hacked" or stolen by fraud. And short of a French, Russian, Mexican, or Chinese-style full-on revolution, nobody messes with it.
If America falls apart and you're sitting on a piece of land you owned, farming it, you have food, and nobody to contest title other than with guns - and the land itself is not something easy to "steal". But your pot of gold is easy to steal in a lawless society, also by guns, and is much more desirable to the men with guns.
My advice was sound for all scenarios other than the very narrow one: you're a Jew, with gold coins, living in organized operating states that want to kill you. You have gold you can use to bribe the border guard. But you could have done the same thing with Reichsmarks or dollars too, and the gold is heavier to carry.
The Decree on Land, written by Vladimir Lenin, was passed by the Second Congress of Soviets of Workers', Soldiers', and Peasants' Deputies on 26 October 1917, following the success of the October Revolution. ... According to the Decree on Land, the peasants had seized the lands of the nobility, monasteries and Church.
So cut out the bullshit about land not being able to be seized.
If you're a criminal, including a tax cheat, of course the government can seize your land. It can also come into your house or go into your safety deposit box and steal your gold. What's your point?
The Decree on Land, written by Vladimir Lenin, was passed by the Second Congress of Soviets of Workers', Soldiers', and Peasants' Deputies on 26 October 1917, following the success of the October Revolution. ... According to the Decree on Land, the peasants had seized the lands of the nobility, monasteries and Church.
A similar decree should have given the freed black slaves possession of the lands their former masters had forced them to work.
Come on you're not stupid. My point is you said land cannot be stolen. Then your position has to be that hitler didn't steal any jew land. Lenin and Stalin never stole anybody's land. Mugabe or whatever his name was didn't steal any white farmers land. So quit playing dumb.
Also are you so dumb to think the only place to put your gold is in a safety deposit box or your house. Is that how they think in Connecticut? Or wherever you are. Because that is really silly thinking.
Come on you're not stupid. My point is you said land cannot be stolen. Then your position has to be that hitler didn't steal any jew land. Lenin and Stalin never stole anybody's land. Mugabe or whatever his name was didn't steal any white farmers land. So quit playing dumb.
Also are you so dumb to think the only place to put your gold is in a safety deposit box or your house. Is that how they think in Connecticut? Or wherever you are. Because that is really silly thinking.
If you want to secede from the economic growth on the nation, bet against the survival of America and, more seriously, buy your gold undocumented on the black market, leave it uninsured (because whatever is insured, is easily traceable), engaged in structuring to avoid financial reporting (itself a crime), and then evade the 25% commodities tax on sale, you can go ahead and commit all of those various criminal offenses to have and profit from your invisible, illegal gold. But if you're going to break the law that far and that fast, you may as well just sell pot. You'll make more money at it.
The prospect presented, against which I reacted strongly, was the silly notion that owning gold is going to protect you against the apocalyptic meltdown of the United States.
My answer is...what I already wrote. I don't need to repeat myself.
As is characteristic of you, you're going to seize on a sentence and try to make a federal case out of it, suggesting that I'm...a string of epithets you like to use that question my intelligence, honesty, sincerity, etc.
It's not interesting to me. What I said was common sense and true. Yes, OF COURSE men can do anything, anything COULD happen, and some government could structure itself in some way to take your farmland but leave you unmolested with your hidden basement full of gold.
But it's all silly.
Truth is, farmland has been a reliable, durable, low cost and really low risk way to rack up and maintain good inflation-protected returns for decades. It's hard to commoditize so there's only a few venture capital funds that try to do it, but as an individual investor, you're strong.
Also, there's nothing at all that prevents you from owning your farmland in Norway, or Switzerland, or Finland, or Japan, or some other rock-solid place that is less likely to confiscate your land than a collapsing apocalypse now USA.
You could, maybe, sneak some amount of gold out of the American apocalypse. OR you could just buy your farmland OVER THERE NOW, so that your wealth is ALREADY located in an arch stable country.
Yes, yes, a meteor could take out Norway, I suppose, or a mega-volcano could swallow a continent. Then again, a huge volcano could open and spew such a vein of molten gold that the gold supply doubles and the price of gold inflates away to something less than it is. Likewise, new gold discoveries, or economical seawater synthesis, could dramatically increase the volume of available gold.
The notion that gold is magically and permanently, even divinely-ordained secure is not true. It's a lot less secure than a plot of farmland in Switzerland.
Land is easier then gold for the government to confiscate. Far easier.
Not really. You're forgetting political ease. The US government DID confiscate gold, in 1933, and kept private ownership illegal until the 1960s. People had jewelry, yes, but they didn't have bullion amounts. The government was largely successful in hoovering up most of the gold, by decree.
Let the government try to go out there and mass confiscate land, and see if they can do it without a Bundy-style revolution.
Also, just on a basic level, if gold was so much better than dollars, why is it that huge companies like Goldline and Swiss-America exist with multi-million dollar advertising campaigns to get you to trade YOUR supposedly worthless, inflating-away, fiat paper currency dollars for THEIR supposedly precious, stable, eminently worthwhile hunks of shiny rock?
Are those guys in those companies just all stupid? Do they not understand their own advertisements? Here they HAVE the gold already - and they're telling you that it's going to be valuable real soon, and that dollars are going to be inflated away to worthlessness - so QUICK! Let them have those useless dollars, and they'll sell you this valuable gold!
Seems like strangely obtuse behavior for people who sound like they value the gold a lot more than the inflating, "worthless" fiat currency paper money.
Not really. You're forgetting political ease. The US government DID confiscate gold, in 1933, and kept private ownership illegal until the 1960s.
They did exempt collections of extremely rare gold coins with historical value or that were highly collectible. There are still a lot of the Saint-Gaudens 1 oz. double-eagles in existence. Everything else got melted down but these are still around in considerable numbers.
So you can easily buy these old collectible gold coins who escaped being melted down by FDR.
They did exempt collections of extremely rare gold coins with historical value or that were highly collectible. There are still a lot of the Saint-Gaudens 1 oz. double-eagles in existence. Everything else got melted down but these are still around in considerable numbers.
So you can easily buy these old collectible gold coins who escaped being melted down by FDR.
Yes, they did.
But honestly, do people really believe that they're going to survive the meltdown of America because they've got a coin collection?
I...I...I just can't.
If America's melting down, none of us is going to save himself. We're all going to get sucked into the vortex and our lives as we knew them will be over even if we linger on for a few more years before malaria, typhoid or pinworms get us...unless the violent crazies do it first.
If people are really worried that the apocalypse is near, they'd best spend their time getting right with God, and trying to forestall it by working with their fellow Americans to make things better.
Movies like "Fort Apache: the Bronx" and the like are entertaining to watch, but the actual desire to live through that all and the belief that with some sort of neat pocket knife, cans of dehydrated water, and stocks of ammo, cigarettes and porn "a country boy can survive" is...is...I just can't.
It seems to be a real thing too. Old armchair commandoes who would NEED some sort of apocalypse to change the direction of their lives, I guess they can dream about such things. If we ever get to "live the dream", they'll be carrion within a month.
Why does Goldline eagerly advertise gold as the solution to hyperinflating currency? Why do THEY want all of that hyperinflating currency? Just mine the gold and keep it, right? Oh, wait, what is that? "A sucker is born every minute?" Yeah, that's the expression.
But honestly, do people really believe that they're going to survive the meltdown of America because they've got a coin collection?
Who knows. I was merely correcting the idea that FDR confiscated and melted down all the gold coins in 1933. Clearly, he didn't since they are still on the market and have been legal all along.
Vicomte13 claimed that we can control inflation by avoiding a rise in our deficit beyond current averages..
--- Put me down as having little faith.. --- Because even through your theory sounds good, the USA cannot control the opinions other nations/people have of the soundness of our financial system.. -- And fiat paper money is nothing but an unsupported promise to pay..
I'll keep my faith in gold, (or any other PToPay backed by portable collateral). .. ---- tpaine
--- The prospect presented, against which I reacted strongly, was the silly notion that owning gold is going to protect you against the apocalyptic meltdown of the United States.
Even in a total meltdown, gold, silver, gems, guns, ammo, etc --- would remain valuable to the holder..
Land is only valuable to those who can hold it through the use of one type of force, -- or another... Many other people must agree with you that you 'own' it, before you actually use it, --- and that 'ownership' can change in a political instant...
Even in a total meltdown, gold, silver, gems, guns, ammo, etc --- would remain valuable to the holder...
Guns and ammo, yes.
Gems, silver, gold? Only if somebody else thinks they're valuable. You can't eat them, warm yourself with them, wear them. Granted, crows like shiny things too, but that only goes so far.
The only value of pieces of metal and stone beyond "Ooooo, shiny!" are as media of exchange to buy other things.
Here are some prices, of various staples from a camp in California during the Gold Rush. Compare them to prices today.
Before we look at those numbers, let's pull back and look at some other data. For comparison, federal statistics give us the low, high and average daily wages of workers in six different parts of America - Connecticut, New Hampshire, New York, Massachusetts, Ohio and Pennsylvania in 1849. They ranged from a low of $0.63 cents a day in New York to a high of $1.25 a day, also in New York. The average across those six states was $0.92 per day. So, Americans back then were earning on average a bit under a dollar a day. By 1900, this average had risen in America to $1.34, demonstrating the virtue of gold and silver currency at maintaining wage stability over long periods. The median daily wage (over a seven-day week) of American workers in the third quarter of 2017 is $122 per day.
So now, let's look at those prices from gold mining camps in California in 1849-1850, where the miners - like refugees from a modern apocalypse - had bags of gold in their pockets but needed goods and supplies.
In a country where people were earning 92 cents per day, these gold-rich hombres were paying, in US dollars or in gold, the prices below. (In 1849, the price of gold was $40.50, today it's $1336.)
a can of Sardines: $16 (.4 oz gold) a pound of beans: $10 (a quarter-ounce of gold) a pound of coffee: $40 (an ounce of gold - $1336 today) a bottle of juice: $8 a pound of sausage: $6 a dozen eggs: $3 8 ounces of cheese: $3 a jar of pickles: $1.60 bread: $2 per loaf (1/20th of an ounce of gold - the equivalent of $66 today). Boots: $100 a pair Underwear: $15 a pair
Money is what money does. When people are living primitively and they have gold, two eggs, eight ounces of sausage and a piece of toast cost them the modern-day equivalent of $115.76. They paid that in gold.
You can't eat gold. If the bubble goes up and you have gold but you don't have chickens, cows, picks or crops in the field, you're going to have to fork over your gold to pay for those commodities, and you're going to have to pay at least what the gold rush folks had to pay - and they were paying it under organized conditions in 1849.
True, you can always just steal the food. But it's also true that anybody can steal your gold.
And once folks know you have gold and silver and gems, because you spend it to eat, ilico presto, men with guns will show up and try to take it from you.
The only protection you will ultimately have is the same that men have always had: by banding together with other men for mutual defense...and then, guess what? Rules. And the need to pay other men for what they do to defend you. Etc.
Armies did not historically show up to defend farmers. Rather, farmers created armies, of themselves, to defend against people showing up against whom they had to defend themselves.
Those guys at Goldline and Swiss America must really be fools, selling all of the good gold and silver they can get their hands on in order to get ahold of those worthless, inflating, pieces of paper fiat currency. Any SANE gold miner would just pile up that gold in his own basement and not sell it for useless fiat money. The apocalypse is coming any day now...along with the armies of men to take that gold. So, they're going to need that gold to pay all of the men they're going to need to guard that gold!
The more general point: if the balloon goes up, government is no longer your worry. If you're hoarding gold to escape the eyes of government, you're relying on the system of law and order maintained by the government to keep things safe enough for you to hoard gold.
If the government is gone, the threat becomes other men coming and taking what you have, and that threat will be more real, and more constant, than government ever was.
They shall cast their silver in the streets, and their gold shall be removed: their silver and their gold shall not be able to deliver them in the day of the wrath of the LORD: they shall not satisfy their souls, neither fill their bowels: because it is the stumblingblock of their iniquity
--- the USA cannot control the opinions other nations/people have of the soundness of our financial system.. -- And fiat paper money is nothing but an unsupported promise to pay..
I'll keep my faith in gold, (or any other PromiseToPay backed by portable collateral). .. ---- tpaine
Vicomte --- The prospect presented, against which I reacted strongly, was the silly notion that owning gold is going to protect you against the apocalyptic meltdown of the United States. --- Guns and ammo, (would protect) yes. ----- Gems, silver, gold? Only if somebody else thinks they're valuable.
You've conceded exactly my point. Guns, ammo, gold, etc, -- are seen as valuable because they are hard to get, -- they're scarce, thus they can be used as a handy medium of exchange.
The silly notion that owning gold is going to protect anyone against the apocalyptic meltdown of the United States is your hype, not mine...
Keeping a reasonable portion of your assets in such materials is not 'hoarding', --- It's rational common sense...
So now, let's look at those prices from gold mining camps in California in 1849-1850
I'm surprised you'd waste so many keystrokes on such specious argument.
You need to learn more about the history of gold and silver currency in this country, especially in the western territories.
You aren't even fairly comparing apples and oranges.
Those guys at Goldline and Swiss America must really be fools, selling all of the good gold and silver they can get their hands on in order to get ahold of those worthless, inflating, pieces of paper fiat currency.
And I think this lib asshole making all those BUY GOLD commercials on Fox News is not taking his fee in gold.
DeVane is choppin' his own firewood to heat his cabin full of Rosland gold. I saw it on Tee-bee.
#53. To: tpaine, Pocahontas 2020, Vicomte13, Tooconservative, *2020 The Likely Suspects* (#47)
You've conceded exactly my point. Guns, ammo, gold, etc, -- are seen as valuable because they are hard to get, -- they're scarce, thus they can be used as a handy medium of exchange.
When President Pocahontas confiscates Vic's Connecticut tobaco Farmland for a UN Biosphere, he's going to wish that he had a few California Gold coins in his pocket.
DACA Shithole Dreamers - Make America Great Again?
But honestly, do people really believe that they're going to survive the meltdown of America because they've got a coin collection?
I honestly believe people will be polite and not try to harm you when you speak politely to them while pointing a shotgun at their gut.
Or maybe I am just one of those starry-eyed optimists?
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.
honestly believe people will be polite and not try to harm you when you speak politely to them while pointing a shotgun at their gut.
That's fine. But I don't think your fellows believe it. Upthread they're telling me that your farmland will be raped from you, if you have it, but your gold will keep you safe.
I will not dispute that a shotgun will help you keep your gold. But I am puzzled as to why that is not also doubly true for your farmland, considering that somebody can break in and steal your gold, but nobody can just walk away with your farmland - they have to push you, and your shotgun, off of it.
he's going to wish that he had a few California Gold coins in his pocket
Possibly. From the historical record, looks like one of those coins will provide food for my family for about one day in primitive conditions. Better than nothing, I suppose, but I think I can do something better with that $666 dollars in the present economy, to make it grow, rather than turn it into a piece of metal that won't.
I'm surprised you'd waste so many keystrokes on such specious argument.
How could you be? I'll waste thousands of keystrokes talking about pickled herring and milking white-tailed deer. Words are not worth gold to me. Their like carbon dioxide - to be expelled as rapidly as possible, in billowing gaseous clouds.
You can hide your gold in the woods. Your lands location is always known and contrary to your claim that land cannot be stolen, it can.
I'm not saying gold would necessarily be any good either. The only thing that will be able to save you actually is gods protection. Which you don't believe in except for yourself.
Besides if shtf I'm gonna find out where you are and hang out there so you can raise me from the dead in case I get killed.
I will not dispute that a shotgun will help you keep your gold. But I am puzzled as to why that is not also doubly true for your farmland, considering that somebody can break in and steal your gold, but nobody can just walk away with your farmland - they have to push you, and your shotgun, off of it.
I don't have any farmland,but there is one indisputable truth that needs to be mentioned,and that is it doesn't matter how much farmland,industrial property,rental property,etc,etc,etc you own,the ONLY property you are in control of is the one currently resting under your feet.
Using farmland for an example because of all the attention it has received on this thread,it is useless unless you can control and protect it. Crops can be poisoned,burned,or stolen,and that's IF you are even left free to plant and grow a crop. Once you do,you still have to harvest it,and good luck harvesting crops on a modern farm without diesel fuel to run your machinery,and armed guards to protect your crops and your equipment.
In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments.