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WORLD WAR III
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Title: Is It Already Too Late to Stop North Korea?
Source: PJ Media
URL Source: https://pjmedia.com/trending/2017/0 ... -too-late-to-stop-north-korea/
Published: Aug 11, 2017
Author: Rick Moran
Post Date: 2017-08-11 09:12:44 by IbJensen
Keywords: None
Views: 240
Comments: 14

In the wake of this shocking report in the Washington Post on North Korea's nuclear and ICBM program being far more advanced than we previously believed, Foreign Policy published an article by one of the premier nuclear experts in the U.S. that essentially says the game is over and North Korea has won.

Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control and nuclear arms expert, has been following the North Korean nuclear program for decades. He makes a convincing case that the Kim regime has more nuclear weapons than we thought and that from the very start of their nuclear program, they decided to build miniaturized bombs to fit on top of long-range missiles.

Lewis believes that the North Koreans went about building their nuclear program differently than some other nuclear powers. Instead of beginning with an implosion device -- a bomb using highly enriched uranium -- they strove to build small, compact plutonium bombs.

Plutonium bombs are significantly more powerful than bombs that use highly enriched uranium, and the fact that they have achieved a certain level of dependability with these weapons means that any attack on their facilities could precipitate a launch where at least a few of their missiles would get through to devastate some cities.

What makes this analysis so troubling is that Lewis used to analyze the progress of rogue-regime nuclear programs for a living and was an expert at reading between the lines of intelligence assessments and other data to find what others may have missed.

The fact that North Korea’s nuclear weapons used less fissile material than we expected helps explain the second judgment that North Korea has more bombs than is usually reported. The defector claimed that North Korea’s first nuclear weapon contained only 4 kilograms of the limited supply of plutonium North Korea made, and continues to make, at its reactor at Yongbyon. (For a long while, experts claimed the reactor was not operating when thermal images plainly showed that it was.) The North Koreans themselves claimed the first test used only 2 kilograms of plutonium. Those claims struck many people, including me, as implausible at first. But they were only implausible in the sense that such a device would probably fail when tested — and the first North Korean test did fail. The problem is North Korea kept trying, and its later tests succeeded.

We also must take seriously that North Korea has perhaps stretched its supply of plutonium by integrating some high-enriched uranium into each bomb and developing all-uranium designs. North Korea has an unknown capacity to make highly enriched uranium. We’ve long noticed that the single facility that North Korea has shown off to outsiders seems smaller than North Korea’s newly renovated capacity to mine and mill uranium; we naturally wondered where all that extra uranium is going.

The bottom line is that our options are limited and entirely unsatisfactory:

Unless the intelligence community knows exactly where North Korea is enriching uranium and how big each facility is, we’re just guessing how many nuclear weapons the country may have. But 60 nuclear weapons doesn’t sound absurdly high.

The thing is, we knew all this already. Sure, sure it isn’t the same when I say it. I mean, I am just some rando living out in California. But now that someone with a tie and real job in Washington has said it, it is news.

The big question is where to go from here. Some of my colleagues still think the United States might persuade North Korea to abandon, or at least freeze, its nuclear and missile programs. I am not so sure. I suspect we might have to settle for trying to reduce tensions so that we live long enough to figure this problem out. But there is only one way to figure out who is right: Talk to the North Koreans.

The other options are basically terrible. There is no credible military option. North Korea has some unknown number of nuclear-armed missiles, maybe 60, including ones that can reach the United States; do you really think U.S. strikes could get all of them? That not a single one would survive to land on Seoul, Tokyo, or New York? Or that U.S. missile defenses would work better than designed, intercepting not most of the missiles aimed at the United States, but every last one of them? Are you willing to be your life on that?

On a good day, maybe we get most of the missiles. We save most of the cities, like Seoul and New York, but lose a few like Tokyo. Two out three ain’t bad, right?

As Deb Heine points out, the Obama administration knew most of this as far back s 2013. And, of course, the major enabler of the North Korean nuclear program, the Clinton administration, knew how determined Kim was to create a nuclear deterrent even to the point of starving his people to get the bomb. Neither president did anything to stop them when it was possible to do so.

We can't possibly know what our intelligence agencies know about the location and number of weapons in North Korea. But even if Lewis's estimate of 60 is off by 50%, that's still a lot of missiles to get before they launch.

What Lewis doesn't explain is why Kim would risk the annihilation of his country by employing a Götterdämmerung strategy -- launching his missiles at the first sign of a U.S. attack. There are other factors to consider, including the internal politics of North Korea. The Kim regime has no illusions about the consequences of launching nuclear missiles at America or her allies. Given Kim's less-than-solid hold on power, it's possible to imagine a military coup or a coup involving another faction in the inner circle that would stop a suicidal move to strike the U.S.


Poster Comment:

Obama successfully armed two insane regimes...........Yes, Clinton gave NK nuclear weapons, but Obama lulled the US to support and give Iran the same deal. If you hate us, we will give you money and technology to help you out. So........remember it's the Democrat lunacy to collapse freedom.

Had we continued to allow our country and lives to be ruled by pansies who knows what would have happed to our pitiful country by now>

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#1. To: IbJensen (#0)

In the wake of this shocking report in the Washington Post on North Korea's nuclear and ICBM program being far more advanced than we previously believed, Foreign Policy published an article by one of the premier nuclear experts in the U.S. that essentially says the game is over and North Korea has won.

This is essentially a libmedia coverup.

DIA warned in 2013 that they believed that the Norks had already succeeded in miniaturizing plutonium warheads.

This was inconvenient for 0bama and his intent to kick the can down the road, much as Xlinton and Bush had done.

WaPo and others simply helped cover up 0bama's cowardly stance by refusing to report on the DIA assessment and writing stories about how someday the Norks would have miniature warheads. Like, after 0bama left office.

This is just a coverup for WaPo and Slimes covering up for 0bama's dereliction since 2013 and before.

Tooconservative  posted on  2017-08-11   10:22:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: IbJensen (#0)

" Is It Already Too Late to Stop North Korea? "

Maybe, maybe not.

But it is not too late to effect justice. To that end, arrest Obutthole, and Zippy Clinton, and all of their CFR-NWO-Globalist masters.

Hanging is too good for them !!

I suggest we tie them all to posts, pile up brush & old tires around them, and put a torch to the piles. Take them all out in one day!

Justice achieved !!

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.

Never Pick A Fight With An Old Man He Will Just Shoot You He Can't Afford To Get Hurt

I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur

Stoner  posted on  2017-08-11   11:53:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: IbJensen (#0)

Seems to me that China's stated position is being misinterpreted by the west.

They said they would be neutral in any conflict unless the US strikes first.

I think that is actually an ultimatum to Kim, not the USA. With those words, China is telling Kim that if he dares to strike first, he's on his own.

While Obama, Clinton and maybe Bush could be blamed for enabling NK to get nukes, I think in the big, long term picture, the fact is that tech doesn't advance only in the USA. It is happening worldwide, and that means making nukes will get easier and easier to do, and that means small hostile countries will, sooner or later, get them if they want them badly enough.

The loser in this scenario are those big empires that try to control the world, like the USA, which is not accustomed to rogue countries daring to actually have strategic military leverage against the big ol' USA, and I would estimate that the bulk of the risk of nuke war is in this development that the USA deep state is not used to this kind of situation, more than the situation itself.

Rogue countries will get nukes, and the USA needs to accept that fact and deal with it, and nicely. All this military spending we're doing should be directed to making a state of the art anti-ballistic missile system, not boondoggles like the F-35 that would only serve to protect America's "interests" instead of America itself.

Pinguinite  posted on  2017-08-11   14:15:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: IbJensen (#0)

Is It Already Too Late to Stop North Korea?

At the rate of progress North Korea is making,we have two months to stop them. Andit had best be realized that self impressed punk kid over there running things is absolutely nuts.

rlk  posted on  2017-08-11   14:56:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Pinguinite (#3)

I don't trust China, especially when it involves a complete nut case who will fire the first barrage of ICBMs.

China likes turmoil as long as it doesn't occur in China.

I don't believe we should sit around waiting for the incoming mail.

Liberals are like Slinkys. They're good for nothing, but somehow they bring a smile to your face as you shove them down the stairs.

IbJensen  posted on  2017-08-12   9:44:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: IbJensen (#5)

I don't trust China, especially when it involves a complete nut case who will fire the first barrage of ICBMs.

Kim won't attack the USA. Right now he's threatening to as a diplomatic move. He knows the US doesn't like his having nukes, so he threatens to attack. In a week or so after the world gets scared of imminent nuke war, he cools the rhetoric and then everyone is happy, and they agree to let him keep the nukes in exchange for his more civil promise to act nice with them and not nuke anybody.

That works better than politely begging the world to let him have his nukes for the next 5 years. Then life goes on, with NK remaning a new-kid-on-the-block junior nuke power that is accepted, if only begrudgingly.

China likes turmoil as long as it doesn't occur in China.

No, if that were true China would simply tell the US it won't interfere in any way in any US attack on NK. China likes NK just the way it is, and their stated position is arguably the one that will most guarantee NK will do nothing, albeit while permitting NK to keep it's nukes.

The question is not whether Kim is a tyrant and hates the USA. The question is whether he is suicidal. I don't think he is, though the US should be rightly concerned if a single person in NK has the authority to push a launch button if he might flip out after getting some bad coffee one morning, but barring that, no, Kim will not attack and China has told him in no uncertain terms that if he does, they will turn their back on him and his mini empire will become an example of what happens to countries that do totally stupid crap.

I don't believe we should sit around waiting for the incoming mail.

Why not? The US & Russia have done exactly that since the 50's, and so far, so good.

Pinguinite  posted on  2017-08-12   12:11:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Pinguinite (#6)

Why not? The US & Russia have done exactly that since the 50's, and so far, so good.

That was when it was ONLY between the USSR and the USA. Now we've got to contend with North Korea which should have been eliminated as a threat at a successful conclusion of the Korean War. Add to that Iran and other rag-tag nations.

Liberals are like Slinkys. They're good for nothing, but somehow they bring a smile to your face as you shove them down the stairs.

IbJensen  posted on  2017-08-13   14:38:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: IbJensen (#7) (Edited)

Iran is not a problem. They are only made out to be one because our "allies" in the region don't like them for their own reasons.

NK is a problem, but not Iran. Whatever should have been with NK in the past is now immaterial. There can be no doubt that the NK people would love to be rid of Kim as the country is in an economic stone age.

But no, Kim won't be launching any nukes at all. If he does, then NK will be laid waste and then the threat will be gone for sure.

Pinguinite  posted on  2017-08-13   16:42:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: Pinguinite (#8)

Iran would have never become a problem to us if the Bushes hadn't gone crazy with their obsession to destroy Saddam and Iraq. Saddam kept Iran nervous and at bay due to his constant bombings and Christians and Jews were protected by his regime.

Liberals are like Slinkys. They're good for nothing, but somehow they bring a smile to your face as you shove them down the stairs.

IbJensen  posted on  2017-08-14   8:32:04 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: Pinguinite (#8)

Iran is an evil regime. It would be just if they were all killed. I'm talking about the Muslims and others that rule Iran. Bring the Shah back.

A K A Stone  posted on  2017-08-14   10:00:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: A K A Stone (#10)

Iran is an evil regime. It would be just if they were all killed. I'm talking about the Muslims and others that rule Iran. Bring the Shah back.

I know of no basis for making such a conclusion. The hostage taking in the late 70's was obviously wrong, though on the other hand, it was a political response to US meddling in their domestic affairs, which of course is a habitual practice of US administrations.

In cultural terms, Iran is, by and large, a westernized country. We don't hear about people getting their heads chopped off in Iran for religious offenses the way we do in Saudi Arabia. Iran also has elections to determine the head of their government, while Saudi Arabia is a monarchy. And yet, we call Iran a problem and Saudi Arabia an ally.

So tell me why we consider Iran an evil regime while Saudi Arabia is an ally?

What we do know is that Iran is mostly Shiite, which is at odds with Saudi Arabia's Sunni's. That shouldn't matter to the US but it does, simply because of political games.

Don't fall for it. No country is perfect, but Iran has been smeared unjustly.

Pinguinite  posted on  2017-08-14   11:20:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: Pinguinite (#11) (Edited)

So tell me why we consider Iran an evil regime

Because we are rigtheous and exceptional we need a reason to kill them?

A Pole  posted on  2017-08-14   13:41:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: Pinguinite (#11)

Because they are Muslims. The Koran teaches kill everyone who isn't Muslim. So I'm talking defensively. If the Koran taught kindness instead of murder than I wouldn't care if they were Muslims.

I don't have the same opinion on Buddhists for example. I don't agree with them but who cares.

If we could live peaceably with Iran that would be fine by me.

If Iran was more powerful than we are. They wouldn't hesitate to kill us off.

A K A Stone  posted on  2017-08-14   17:41:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#14. To: A K A Stone (#13)

If Iran was more powerful than we are. They wouldn't hesitate to kill us off.

Iran/Persia dominated Christian Armenia for centuries, and they did not kill them.

Turkey did it (western part) when it got pro-Western secular government.

A Pole  posted on  2017-08-14   19:00:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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