Turns out when Trump tweeted early Thursday morning that we must fight the Freedom Caucus in 2018, that wasnt just idle time-wasting while he was sitting on the can.
Interesting that Dan Scavino, Trumps official social-media guy, would zero in on Amash for threats instead of, say, Mark Meadows or Rand Paul, both of whom were more prominent critics of the failed House health-care bill. Amashs sin seems not to be that he helped take down TrumpCare but that hes been lippy about it.
It didn't take long for the swamp to drain @realDonaldTrump. No shame, Mr. President. Almost everyone succumbs to the D.C. Establishment. https://t.co/9bDo8yzH7I
Trump admin & Establishment have merged into #Trumpstablishment. Same old agenda: Attack conservatives, libertarians & independent thinkers. https://t.co/ALcV59iHXx
Wouldnt be the first term someones come at Amash in a primary. Business-class Republicans dislike him because of his libertarianism, which makes him a reliable no vote on federal spending. They recruited a primary challenger for him in 2014 with backing from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce; that candidate, Brian Ellis, accused Amash at one point of being Al Qaedas best friend in Congress due to his civil libertarian stances. Amash won that race 57/43, then went on to win the general election that year by nearly 20 points. Last year he won by more than 20 and in so doing outperformed Trump, who won Amashs district by just 10 points over Clinton. Ousting Amash, you see, wont be easy. And given how ideological he is, its a cinch that not only wont he bend under Scavinos threats (see the last tweet above as Exhibit A), hell use the extra media attention hell get from it to amplify his criticism. If Trump goes all-in now to try to beat him in a primary and Amash wins anyway, itll be the Renee Ellmers humiliation all over again but times 100.
Relatedly, it was three weeks ago that the Examiner reported that Trump had warned House Republicans in a meeting that hed back primary challenges to them if the health-care bill went belly up. The White House pushed back hard on that story at the time, insisting it never happened which was smart spin given that the bill was still in play and a public rift between Trump and the Freedom Caucus would have only made it that much harder to find consensus. How does that Examiner story look now, though, three weeks later, with Trump vowing to fight the Freedom Caucus in 2018 and Scavino singling out individual members as targets? Amash isnt even the only conservative to receive a communique from the White House that his seat is on the line. Mark Sanford claims Mick Mulvaney delivered a threat from Trump personally:
The South Carolina Republican told The Post and Courier that Trump chose to convey this message through an intermediary: White House budget chief Mick Mulvaney, a former member of the S.C. congressional delegation, co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus and a friend.
The president asked me to look you square in the eyes and to say that he hoped that you voted no on this bill so he could run (a primary challenger) against you in 2018,' Sanford said Mulvaney told him.
He added that Mulvaney made it clear he did not want to deliver the message but did so at Trumps insistence.
Sounds like the presidents planning to fight a two-front war against the left and right in 2018. Just what youd expect a man with the massive political capital that comes with a 41 percent job approval rating to do.
Heres Amash on Thursday comparing Trumps strongarm tactics to how fifth-graders try to persuade critics. An interesting catch by the Hill, meanwhile: Sean Hannity addressed Trumps tweet about fighting the Freedom Caucus on his show on Thursday night and seemed to side with the Caucus, claiming that Trumps anger in scapegoating them for the bills failure was misplaced. Populist conservative media is going to be in a jam if the Trump/HFC feud escalates. Whom do they side with, the big-government populist president or the small-government conservative House faction? Does it depend on how many of Trumps initiatives the Freedom Caucus ends up blocking?
Amash has a lot of the old RP supporters. Some of them prefer Amash to Rand, or they have at various points.
But Rand isn't up for re-election until 2022. Amash has to run in 2018. So the GOPe will go after Amash.
I'm not sure that will work out as they think.
Amash has already beat back a very determined effort to unseat him by a conventional Republican in 2014, with the full backing of the RNC and the Chamber of Commerce. It reminded me of several times when they tried to pull the same thing on Ron Paul.
Once a congresscritter withstands a major assault from within their own party establishment, they become essentially an independent politician, even if they never leave the party. Instead of making them more compliant with the party bosses, it actually grants them even more independence from party bosses and conventional political pressure.
Justin Amash is in a historically strong GOP district. I would expect he could get a lot of financial support from Dearborn and also from Peter Thiel as well as segments of the old Ron Paul political machine. And he would get help from Rand Paul and others in the Freedom Caucus. He would almost certainly get some financial help funneled to him by Dem tycoons, hoping to make his primary a battle so bitter that a Dem could take the winner of the GOP primary in the general election.
A high-profile fight with Trump and his minions could launch Amash into the Senate.
#3. To: Tooconservative, Koch Brothers cash boost (#2)
I would expect he could get a lot of financial support from Dearborn and also from Peter Thiel as well as segments of the old Ron Paul political machine.
Also the Koch Brothers have promised to shower the AHCA no voters with cash.
Also the Koch Brothers have promised to shower the AHCA no voters with cash.
Hmmm...I just hadn't heard that. Their main PACs is Americans For Prosperity. And their mouthpiece is Cato Institute. They also have Freedom Partners and Citizens for a Sound Economy and KochPAC which are lesser known PACs. And a bunch of family foundations.
I'm not sure where Americans For Prosperity stands on the Freedom Caucus or on RynoCare. I know Heritage was very opposed to RynoCare and the Koch foundations are key donors to that, along with Federalist Society and a half-dozen other think tank operations.
Post a link if you have something on Koch involvement in this RynoCare dustup. I just haven't heard of them being active lately.
It Took An Independently Wealthy Billionaire To Prove Money Doesnt Win Elections . ...
...if the national media is trying to defeat you by giving you $2 billion in free unpaid media.
Now, as prez, they are pretty much forced to cover him. I do think that all that free media will dry up if he runs in 2020. They won't throw gasoline on that fire again.
Trumpkins tend to believe that all politics is now changed for all time because of Trump. I don't see any reason to believe that is true. American politics tends to have a pretty familiar and steady form.
Admittedly, Trump did break a lot of records. First complete non-pol lacking military or cabinet-level or gubernatorial experience. First true populist since Andrew Jackson. Possibly the most hated president since Andrew Jackson.
Trump on his own terms is unique, maybe more so than 0bama was. But 0bama couldn't save seats for his own party and it wasn't for lack of trying.
Maybe Trump is like 0bama in that they are only good at keeping their own supporters loyal, not at electing or defeating anyone in their own party. Trump did run behind almost every Republican on the national ballots in their states.
The Kochs refused to support Trump's candidacy last fall,
They were far from the only ones. The only strong tycoon supporters were Trump's old friends from NYC. And the Ricketts family who had their own GOTV effort that was quite effective. You may recall that a key moment was in the last few weeks when Sheldon Adelson threw in another, what, $125 million and just gave it to the Ricketts effort. And Adelson challenged the other old-money Republicans to cough up and match his giving (via the Ricketts organization working in all the Midwest battleground states). There were other GOP tycoons that played a big part but a lot of them refused to take part where they would have for most any other nominee. All the Mormon money was very shy toward Trump, for instance.
AFAIK, the Koch's were less active in 2016 than they have been in a long time. You also see some significant decline in the maximum effort that Soros used to put into the Dem races so it isn't just the Kochs who are spending a bit less.