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LEFT WING LOONS
See other LEFT WING LOONS Articles

Title: Some People Are Now ... 100 Percent Sure --- Hillary Clinton Will Win
Source: nymag.com
URL Source: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence ... finitely-win-the-election.html
Published: Oct 18, 2016
Author: Ed Kilgore
Post Date: 2017-01-26 01:59:28 by BorisY
Keywords: lemmings retrogrades reprobate, lemmings retrogrades reprobate, lemmings retrogrades reprobate
Views: 1433
Comments: 7

October 18, 2016

Some People Are Now 100 Percent Sure Hillary Clinton Will Win

By Ed Kilgore

Is anyone willing to stake reputations — or money — on a prediction?

Photo: NBC/NBC via Getty Images

There’s been something missing in mainstream election coverage until recently: certainty. That changed today, as veteran election forecaster Stu Rothenberg (now with the Washington Post) announced he was no longer going to entertain the possibility there is any doubt about the outcome of the presidential contest:

It would be a mistake to call Trump’s current path to an electoral college victory narrow. It is nonexistent.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, once part of the Trump scenario, have never been “in play,” and he is not competitive in 2012 states Obama won only narrowly, such as Virginia and Colorado.

Trump is more likely to lose North Carolina than win it, which would put him under 200 electoral votes.

Frankly, the writing has been on the wall for months about this race. You simply needed to look at the candidates, their campaign teams, the map and the voters.

Now, plenty of other analysts have been staring at the candidates, their campaign teams, the map, and the voters all along as well, but prefer to view the election outcome as a matter of probabilities, not a yes/no or win/lose proposition.

Thus (as a handy chart from the New York Times shows) the Princeton Election Consortium rates Clinton’s “win probability” at 97 percent; Daily Kos Elections sets it at 95 percent; HuffPost at 93 percent; The Upshot at 91 percent; and FiveThirtyEight at 88 percent (that’s FiveThirtyEight’s “polls-only” forecast; the one that takes fundamentals and election history into account gives HRC only a 85 percent probability of winning.

Then there are the professionals who handle wagers by those willing to put money on election outcomes. PredictWise, which aggregates betting markets, gives Clinton a 90 percent chance of winning.

Joining Rothenberg in the fuhgettaboutit camp is the Irish bookie Paddy Power, which has announced an early payout on bets on Clinton. Now that’s certainty.

We’ll see if it survives the stretch run of this peculiar campaign.

Tags: 2016 election predictions hillary Clinton bookies


Poster Comment:

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#1. To: All (#0)

Some People Are Now ... 100 Percent Sure --- Hillary ClintoOn Will Win

funnnnnnnyyyyyy

If you ... don't use exclamation points --- you should't be typeing ! Commas - semicolons - question marks are for girlie boys !

BorisY  posted on  2017-01-26   2:01:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: All (#1)

FiveThirtyEight: Hillary Clinton now heavily favored to win every swing state, plus one red state

By Bill Palmer

October 17, 2016

Even as cable news now spends half its time hyping Donald Trump‘s total collapse in the polls, and the other half of its time highlighting any minor polling fluctuations which suggest Hillary Clinton might somehow simultaneously also be in trouble, the actual poll numbers paint a rather different story.

Polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight has become renowned for averaging the polls together to make consistently accurate predictions – and it’s now painting a remarkably stable picture for the 2016 election.

Even as cable news networks focus on outlier polls to suggest that Donald Trump is either making a comeback in Ohio or outright leading the key swing state, FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of all the polls in that state has led to the calculation that Hillary Clinton currently has a 66% percent chance of winning Ohio.

In the other three largest swing states, Hillary is being given a 77% chance of winning Florida, a 90% chance of winning Pennsylvania, and 72% chance of winning North Carolina. So which swing states are still in play?

Well, none of them, according to FiveThirtyEight. Clinton is the most vulnerable in Iowa, where she currently has a 63% chance of winning. In other swing states she has 91% odds in Wisconsin and 94% odds in Virginia; the latter number helps explain why the Trump campaign pulled out of Virginia and gave up on the state. There is also one decidedly red state in which Hillary is now favored.

Despite Arizona’s status as a solidly red state in modern presidential elections, Hillary Clinton is now being given a 58% chance of winning it. Although she’s also launched advertising campaigns in some other red states, they don’t appear to be as easily in reach. For instance has just a 28% chance of winning Georgia, and just a 9% chance in Utah. So as things stand now, she’s only on track to pick off one red state.

But that still means that Hillary Clinton is now favored to win every blue state, every swing state, and one red state. That points to an electoral college landslide. That’s not a surprise. FiveThirtyEight’s three different national predictive models give her an 85%, 88%, and 91% chance of becoming President. There are still three weeks until election day, and things can change. But the professional polling analysis confirms that cable news is more or less making things up when it claims that Trump is pulling ahead in certain states or that the overall election is somehow tightening. You can view the numbers here and click on various states for the predictions. If you enjoy Daily News Bin, consider making a contribution:

Bill Palmer is the founder of Daily News Bin and covers a variety of political and social topics.

http://www.dailynewsbin.com

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Posted in News, Politics and tagged 2016 election, Arizona, Florida, Hillary Clinton, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, politics

4 Comments

john junkroski on October 18, 2016

Obviously the work of Marinus Van der Lubbe and his Romanian communist allies. The parallels are too stark not to believe.

Nightflyer on October 18, 2016

They were Bulgarian…and all but Van der Lubbe were acquitted, by the way.

Juah freeman on October 18, 2016

I always follow your article cuz I know you are truthful. I do not listen to cable cuz they always favor trump.

The same organization predicted that Democrat Anthony Brown had a 94% chance of beating Larry Hogan for governor in heavily Democrat Maryland. Hogan easily won..... on November 3, 2016

Often the pollsters agenda is to influence the voting

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/news/fivethirtyeight-hillary-clinton-now-heavily- favored-to-win-every-swing-state-plus-one-red-state/26341/

If you ... don't use exclamation points --- you should't be typeing ! Commas - semicolons - question marks are for girlie boys !

BorisY  posted on  2017-01-26   2:47:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: BorisY (#1)

Some People Are Now ... 100 Percent Sure --- Hillary ClintoOn Will Win

funnnnnnnyyyyyy

It isn't funny. She hasn't quit. She is letting a well organized guerilla group within 50 percent of the population continue campaigning for her while she remains coy. Nobody has bothered to refute the bitch's stupid arguments made during her campaign.

rlk  posted on  2017-01-26   2:48:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: rlk (#3)

It isn't funny. She hasn't quit. She is letting a well organized guerilla group within 50 percent of the population continue campaigning for her while she remains coy. Nobody has bothered to refute the bitch's stupid arguments made during her campaign.

AND the FBI has not quit investigating her either. The two parallel investigations continue apace, without any interference or negative pressure anymore from either the head of the Justice Department or the White House.

Since Hillary Clinton obviously broke the national security laws of the USA, and a number of foreign powers are known to have actually obtained US national secrets from Hillary's server, she can be indicted at any time. And if indicted, she will lose and face prison time.

So, Hillary has to be coy indeed. If she moves publicly in any way that is threatening or damaging to the Administration, she will be arrested, perhaps even handcuffed and frog-marched for the cameras, for serious criminal violations of national security.

The Clintons have always played hardball. But so has Trump. And Trump is richer and more successful. Hillary Clinton will lose if she takes on Trump. She and her husband both will go to jail.

On the other hand, if she simply plays nice for eight years, she (and he) won't have to worry about going to prison, because Trump will pardon them if he has to - he likes them personally.

Trump has no incentive at all to "resolve" the Clinton mess. Let the investigations grind on, let the charges be proffered and prosecution considered. Let it go on and on and on. For as long as it goes on, it is a dagger pointed right at the heart of the Clinton's personal liberty and wealth.

It will also distract the public tremendously, allowing Trump to continue rolling on with the changes he is implementing faster than any other President in our history.

The Clintons are neutralized. They will not rise again. Trump will let them swing in the breeze, tortured by investigations. He won't relieve their misery in that regard, because it neuters them. But if they bear it and don't enter the "Never Trump" world, he may come through in the end and pardon them. If they try to be politically active, he'll let them go to jail.

If they play nice and respectful, he'll pardon them in the end to spare them jail.

Either way, they're finished. They already lost to Trump. Now he's their only hope. They know that. And so does he.

Vicomte13  posted on  2017-01-26   9:50:08 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: BorisY, rlk, Vicomte13 (#0)

It would be a mistake to call Trump’s current path to an electoral college victory narrow. It is nonexistent.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, once part of the Trump scenario, have never been “in play,” and he is not competitive in 2012 states Obama won only narrowly, such as Virginia and Colorado.

Trump is more likely to lose North Carolina than win it, which would put him under 200 electoral votes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ut0TaegQ-kw

Watch Rachel Maddow get that STUPID SMIRK wiped off her face by Trump's Election

Published on Dec 21, 2016

MSNBC hosts looking totally ridiculous over their flawed polls and predictions for the 2016 Election.

11m:22s

nolu chan  posted on  2017-01-26   17:13:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: nolu chan (#5)

Maddow

That FILTHY "Can't Understand Normal Thinking" never had or has ever had a clue. Someone should punch that dyke like they'd punch a man.

I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح

GrandIsland  posted on  2017-01-26   17:23:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: GrandIsland (#6)

Someone should punch that dyke like they'd punch a man.

schiffless Too

wish I could buy

a life insurance policy

on him

love
boris

If you ... don't use exclamation points --- you should't be typeing ! Commas - semicolons - question marks are for girlie boys !

BorisY  posted on  2019-10-10   17:41:57 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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