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Title: Some People Are Now ... 100 Percent Sure --- Hillary Clinton Will Win
Source: nymag.com
URL Source: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligence ... finitely-win-the-election.html
Published: Oct 18, 2016
Author: Ed Kilgore
Post Date: 2017-01-26 01:59:28 by BorisY
Keywords: lemmings retrogrades reprobate, lemmings retrogrades reprobate, lemmings retrogrades reprobate
Views: 1430
Comments: 7

October 18, 2016

Some People Are Now 100 Percent Sure Hillary Clinton Will Win

By Ed Kilgore

Is anyone willing to stake reputations — or money — on a prediction?

Photo: NBC/NBC via Getty Images

There’s been something missing in mainstream election coverage until recently: certainty. That changed today, as veteran election forecaster Stu Rothenberg (now with the Washington Post) announced he was no longer going to entertain the possibility there is any doubt about the outcome of the presidential contest:

It would be a mistake to call Trump’s current path to an electoral college victory narrow. It is nonexistent.

Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, once part of the Trump scenario, have never been “in play,” and he is not competitive in 2012 states Obama won only narrowly, such as Virginia and Colorado.

Trump is more likely to lose North Carolina than win it, which would put him under 200 electoral votes.

Frankly, the writing has been on the wall for months about this race. You simply needed to look at the candidates, their campaign teams, the map and the voters.

Now, plenty of other analysts have been staring at the candidates, their campaign teams, the map, and the voters all along as well, but prefer to view the election outcome as a matter of probabilities, not a yes/no or win/lose proposition.

Thus (as a handy chart from the New York Times shows) the Princeton Election Consortium rates Clinton’s “win probability” at 97 percent; Daily Kos Elections sets it at 95 percent; HuffPost at 93 percent; The Upshot at 91 percent; and FiveThirtyEight at 88 percent (that’s FiveThirtyEight’s “polls-only” forecast; the one that takes fundamentals and election history into account gives HRC only a 85 percent probability of winning.

Then there are the professionals who handle wagers by those willing to put money on election outcomes. PredictWise, which aggregates betting markets, gives Clinton a 90 percent chance of winning.

Joining Rothenberg in the fuhgettaboutit camp is the Irish bookie Paddy Power, which has announced an early payout on bets on Clinton. Now that’s certainty.

We’ll see if it survives the stretch run of this peculiar campaign.

Tags: 2016 election predictions hillary Clinton bookies


Poster Comment:

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hillarious

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#1. To: All (#0)

Some People Are Now ... 100 Percent Sure --- Hillary ClintoOn Will Win

funnnnnnnyyyyyy

BorisY  posted on  2017-01-26   2:01:15 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: BorisY (#1)

Some People Are Now ... 100 Percent Sure --- Hillary ClintoOn Will Win

funnnnnnnyyyyyy

It isn't funny. She hasn't quit. She is letting a well organized guerilla group within 50 percent of the population continue campaigning for her while she remains coy. Nobody has bothered to refute the bitch's stupid arguments made during her campaign.

rlk  posted on  2017-01-26   2:48:34 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: rlk (#3)

It isn't funny. She hasn't quit. She is letting a well organized guerilla group within 50 percent of the population continue campaigning for her while she remains coy. Nobody has bothered to refute the bitch's stupid arguments made during her campaign.

AND the FBI has not quit investigating her either. The two parallel investigations continue apace, without any interference or negative pressure anymore from either the head of the Justice Department or the White House.

Since Hillary Clinton obviously broke the national security laws of the USA, and a number of foreign powers are known to have actually obtained US national secrets from Hillary's server, she can be indicted at any time. And if indicted, she will lose and face prison time.

So, Hillary has to be coy indeed. If she moves publicly in any way that is threatening or damaging to the Administration, she will be arrested, perhaps even handcuffed and frog-marched for the cameras, for serious criminal violations of national security.

The Clintons have always played hardball. But so has Trump. And Trump is richer and more successful. Hillary Clinton will lose if she takes on Trump. She and her husband both will go to jail.

On the other hand, if she simply plays nice for eight years, she (and he) won't have to worry about going to prison, because Trump will pardon them if he has to - he likes them personally.

Trump has no incentive at all to "resolve" the Clinton mess. Let the investigations grind on, let the charges be proffered and prosecution considered. Let it go on and on and on. For as long as it goes on, it is a dagger pointed right at the heart of the Clinton's personal liberty and wealth.

It will also distract the public tremendously, allowing Trump to continue rolling on with the changes he is implementing faster than any other President in our history.

The Clintons are neutralized. They will not rise again. Trump will let them swing in the breeze, tortured by investigations. He won't relieve their misery in that regard, because it neuters them. But if they bear it and don't enter the "Never Trump" world, he may come through in the end and pardon them. If they try to be politically active, he'll let them go to jail.

If they play nice and respectful, he'll pardon them in the end to spare them jail.

Either way, they're finished. They already lost to Trump. Now he's their only hope. They know that. And so does he.

Vicomte13  posted on  2017-01-26   9:50:08 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


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