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Title: Election Update: Comey Or Not, Trump Continues To Narrow Gap With Clinton
Source:
FiveThirtyEight
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... es-to-narrow-gap-with-clinton/
Published: Oct 31, 2016
Author: Nate Silver
Post Date: 2016-10-31 19:55:57 by ConservingFreedom
Keywords: None
Views: 1347
Comments: 4
We got another set of mixed results on Monday on whether the election has tightened further as a result of FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress about Hillary Clinton’s email server. Overall, however, this is a fairly negative set of data for Clinton . First, we’ll start with polls that were conducted entirely since the news broke on Friday: There are also several polls that straddle the period before and after Comey’s announcement: While this is not a terrible set of numbers for Clinton — and probably not the “game changer” that the Comey news was billed as on Friday — I’ve also seen analyses that go too far in the other direction and conclude that the news hasn’t really had any impact. Clinton’s popular vote lead is down to 4.7 percentage points in our forecast, as compared with 5.7 percentage points on Friday and 7.1 percentage points two weeks ago. And Trump’s chances of winning are 24 percent in the polls-only model, up from 19 percent on Friday and 12 percent two weeks ago. Trump’s chances are 26 percent in the polls-plus model, which is converging with polls-only. It’s not easy to tell how much of that shift reflects a reaction to Comey, as compared with a race that had been tightening already . And it remains the case that the margin is closing because Trump is gaining ground from undecided voters and third- party candidates, rather than Clinton losing support. The fact is, though, that the data we’ve gotten during the past few days is consistent with a reasonably competitive race — although one in which Clinton has the advantage — especially given the significant disagreement in the polls and the relatively high uncertainty surrounding the polling this year . But we also haven’t seen many recent high-quality state polls from states such as Pennsylvania , Michigan and Wisconsin , which are a key part of Clinton’s electoral firewall . The next set of results from those states will go a long way toward determining just how nervous Democrats wind up being. But at this point, the election is a long way from being in the bag for Clinton. Both FiveThirtyEight’s models and betting markets give Trump about a 1 in 4 chance of winning the election, about the same chance as the Chicago Cubs have of winning the World Series .
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#1. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)
I call your article BULLSHIT. Just last week, before this latest email scandel, the MSM polls haad Clinton somewhere in the statosphere of +10 point above Trump. All of a suddent, the MSM polls suggest Trump is leading. MSM polls are total BULLSHIT.
There was a cluster of 4 polls last week showing Hitlery with a double-digit lead - but even for their week they were in a minority. And only the LA Times/USC poll shows Trump with a lead. A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. The LATSlimes is using a statistical algorithm based on a AI program that USC developed. More total BULLSHIT.
So he'coming up trumps is he?
We got another set of mixed results on Monday on whether the election has tightened ...
#2. To: buckeroo (#1)
Just last week, before this latest email scandel, the MSM polls haad Clinton somewhere in the statosphere of +10 point above Trump. All of a suddent, the MSM polls suggest Trump is leading.
#3. To: ConservingFreedom (#2)
#4. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)
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