The Establishments war on Donald Trump
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Title: After Trump Loses, What's Next For The GOP?
Source:
Impact Tap
URL Source: http://theimpacttap.com/2016/10/26/ ... at-comes-next-for-republicans/
Published: Oct 27, 2016
Author: Patrick Glennon
Post Date: 2016-10-27 09:29:40 by Willie Green
Keywords: None
Views: 18884
Comments: 105
It is very uncontroversial to say that Donald Trump is – well – controversial. The Republican nominee for president has burned bridges with a number of communities: he mocked a reporter with a disability; he attacked the Muslim Gold Star parents of a fallen solider, alienating veterans and veterans’ families as well as Muslim-Americans; his attacks on women are too many to enumerate here, but a couple of highlights include the “grope” video describing how he sexually assaults women as well as his insinuation that moderator Megyn Kelly was perhaps menstruating during a Republican primary debate last year; he has also continuously suggested that black Americans live in some sort of post-apocalyptic hellscape. Much to the chagrin of the majority of the United States electorate, none of these incidents seemed to dent Trump’s popularity among his support base, which helped reenforce the narrative of a viable Trump campaign by turning out in droves to his speaking events. But as we edge closer to the end of this historically bizarre (and exceedingly long) election cycle, it appears a near-certainty that Trump will fall to Clinton on November 8. While Republican senate candidates are faring a little better than their toxic presidential nominee, the fact remains that the “Trump effect” has impacted their poll numbers. The result? Democrats are now the cautious favorite to retake the senate, dividing congress and sapping Republicans of the ability to completely stonewall a Clinton administration. A quick look at the polling map lends some interesting insight into just how divisive Trump has been. Even if they still fall in Trump’s electoral basket come election day, Arizona, Texas, and Georgia have drifted very close to the toss-up column. This is a huge alarm for Republicans, who – following defeat to Barack Obama – drafted a plan to appeal to demographics pushed away by the Republican party’s rhetoric and policy, including millennials and Latin Americans. Even before Trump’s scorched earth campaign, Republicans were worrying about demographic changes that indicate that traditionally safe conservative states – such as those mentioned above – could become more competitive as soon as the year 2020. This cycle did the party no favors; the political transition underway in conservative states may accelerate as Trump’s strategy of catering to white nationalist voters has alienated large swaths of the population Republicans were eager to mollify. Republicans’ task of broadening their appeal will only be further complicated by a post-election Trump, who – analysts are suggesting – could use his formidable base and powerful media allies to target GOP leadership for failing to adequately support the pugnacious nominee. This “Republican civil war” could end in a number of ways. Perhaps it will end with a more 21st century party in-tune with contemporary social norms, women’s rights, and climate change. Or, the party could dissolve entirely. We’ll have to wait and see.
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 42.
#4. To: Willie Green (#0)
Trump is going to win. American Brexit. Wait and see. But if he loses, the GOP is effectively finished and we'll have Democrat rule for the next century. Politics will cease to be interesting or important: the full Democrat agenda will be enacted, and we will live in the country as they want it. Politics will no longer be a useful place to put one's energy, people with political ambitions will join the Democratic Party, and it will eventually split into two and become the two parties. The Republicans will shrivel up and disappear like the Whigs and Federalists did. If Trump wins, the GOP will have a new lease on life, as a populist, nationalist party. The GOP as it CURRENTLY exists is dead no matter who wins. We live in a democracy, and the portion of the population that accepts Republican theories is already too small to win elections. The GOP will change to formally reflect Trumpism, if he wins. It will go on, as an old party name with a new ideological engine. If Trump loses, the GOP will still be as it is, but a lot smaller, and it will never win another national election.
"Brexit? Even that comparison doesn’t really work. The final polls showed a toss-up between the United Kingdom leaving the European Union or remaining in it, and “leave” eventually won by 4 points. If the polls were biased against Trump by that much in this election, he’d still lose, by a margin approximating the one by which Mitt Romney lost to President Obama four years ago." - fivethirtyeight.com
Either the polls will have been right all along, and you'll get to crow at those of us who said otherwise, or those of us who think that there's a huge set of traditional non-voters and blue collar voters who will come out for Trump this time, and that the polltakers are biased. If it's the latter and we turn out to be right, we'll be sure to remind you of it.
Every single one of dozens of organizations is knowingly diminishing its brand value with bad forecasts? No sale.
Not all of them. But it's good that there is no sale. Because if Trump wins, my ability to see through the fog will have been very strongly established.
Since mid-September, only one pollster has ever shown a Trump lead.
You are misinformed Tooconservative.
Polls are not always correct:
But Gallop would never hurt their "brand."
One or a few pollsters might - but dozens?
"Pollsters vastly underestimated a Republican wave in the 2014 midterms, and last month had an epic fail in the Michigan Democratic primary, with the poll average predicting Hillary Clinton would crush Bernie Sanders by 21 points. When Sanders upset Clinton by 1.5 percent, polling aggregator Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com — who had given the Vermont senator just a 1 percent chance of winning — deemed it 'among the greatest polling errors in primary history.'" --The problem with polls Put some ice on it.
Leads with a general underestimation of a Rat victory, and does not say the errors were committed knowingly as is the topic of discussion. Put some ice on it.
#44. To: ConservingFreedom (#42)
"Pollsters vastly underestimated a Republican wave in the 2014 midterms, and last month had an epic fail in the Michigan Democratic primary, with the poll average predicting Hillary Clinton would crush Bernie Sanders by 21 points. When Sanders upset Clinton by 1.5 percent, polling aggregator Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com — who had given the Vermont senator just a 1 percent chance of winning — deemed it 'among the greatest polling errors in primary history.'" Liar. You were spewing "brand" nonsense.
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#12. To: Vicomte13 (#4)
Trump is going to win. American Brexit.
#14. To: ConservingFreedom (#12)
#15. To: Vicomte13 (#14)
the polltakers are biased.
#22. To: ConservingFreedom (#15)
Every single one of dozens of organizations is knowingly diminishing its brand value with bad forecasts? No sale.
#24. To: Vicomte13 (#22)
Not all of them.
#26. To: ConservingFreedom (#24)
Since mid-September, only one pollster has ever shown a Trump lead.
#31. To: A K A Stone, GrandIsland (#26)
Since mid-September, only one pollster has ever shown a Trump lead.
You are misinformed Tooconservative.
ROTFL ...
#36. To: Gatlin (#31)
#37. To: Roscoe (#36)
Gallop would never hurt their "brand."
#40. To: ConservingFreedom (#37)
dozens?
#42. To: Roscoe (#40)
The problem with polls
Replies to Comment # 42. does not say the errors were committed knowingly as is the topic of discussion.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 42.
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