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Title: Trump Isn’t Tweeting About The Polls Anymore
Source:
FiveThirtyEight
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... eting-about-the-polls-anymore/
Published: Aug 19, 2016
Author: Dhrumil Mehta and Harry Enten
Post Date: 2016-08-19 22:53:32 by ConservingFreedom
Keywords: None
Views: 2692
Comments: 13
In the runup to the Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump tweeted about polls. Like … a lot. It made sense: Trump was winning in the polls, and the Trump brand is all about winning. But as “all of them” now show Trump losing, we wondered — being rather poll-obsessed ourselves — whether Trump would still be interested in informing his Twitter followers about the state of the race. Not so much. As you can tell from the chart, Trump rarely tweets 1 about polls these days. Indeed, he’s done so only four times in the past 30 days. During the same period in the primary season — as far out from the Iowa caucuses as we are from Election Day now — he tweeted about polls 103 times. Now, Trump has been reduced to sharing surveys from pollsters such as Zogby Analytics, a firm that earned a C- in our pollster ratings and that has a spotty history. One more interesting note: Trump also stopped tweeting about the polls when he was winning primaries. It could be that Trump stopped feeling the need to tell everyone he was winning polls when he was winning actual votes. Whatever the reason, the difference between the number of tweets Trump has devoted to polling now and the number at a comparable point in the primary season is pretty striking. 
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#1. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)
OMG! The world has become obsessed, terrified and enthralled by Donald Trump. When he tweets, it is reported that he tweets too much. When he doesn’t tweet about something, then an article is devoted entirely to analyzing and publishing that. Geeze!!
Some reporter has too much time on his hands. Correction. TWO reporters. How about a chart for the number of press conferences that "open and transparent" Hillary has held this year? Oh yeah. That chart would be blank.
The LA Times daily tracking poll as of August 21 shows: Donald Trump 43.3% They caption their report, "Trump gains ground against Clinton, tracking poll finds " Pursuant to their stated polling methodology, this would be the same 3,000 eligible voters who previously had Hillary ahead. Something must have changed their minds. http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ We update the data each day based on the weighted average of poll responses over the previous week. That means results have less volatility than some other polls, but also means the poll lags somewhat in responding to major events in the campaign.
Darn, that rascal tweeted again. "@realbill2016: @realDonaldTrump @Brainykid2010 @shl Trump leading LA Times poll pic.twitter.com/908uLXCIWz"— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 22, 2016
'some analysts think the Daybreak poll is slightly tilted toward the Republican side because of how it accounts for the way people voted in the last election. 'All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match known demographics — the right proportions of men and women, for example, or blacks, whites and Latinos. 'The Daybreak poll goes a step further and weights the sample to account for how people say they voted in 2012: It’s set so that 25% of the sample are voters who say they cast a ballot for Mitt Romney and 27% for President Obama. The rest are either too young to have voted four years ago or say they didn’t vote. 'The potential problem is that people tend to fib about how they voted. Polls have often found that the percentage of people who say after an election that they voted for the winner exceeds the winner’s actual vote. 'If that’s the case this year, then weighting for the vote history would result in slightly too many Republican voters in the sample, which would probably boost Trump’s standing by a point or two. 'Unfortunately, there’s no way to know for sure until we can compare the final vote to the poll’s final forecast. Given how long it takes to count all the votes, that answer won’t be available until at least a week after election day.' A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. Yep. Hillary was ahead and now she is behind. That's how trends go. And Trump tweeted about it. As they say, all pollsters weight their results, i.e., add a fudge factor. Raw poll results times fudge factor equals whatever they want.
You do understand that the LA Times includes themselves in "all pollsters," right? A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. Just as you understand that all pollsters can get whatever result they are paid to get. And right after 538 wrote "Trump Isn’t Tweeting About The Polls Anymore," Trump was tweeting about polls.
Can they? Sure. Do they? From the article: "Trump rarely tweets about polls these days" A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. Absolutely, beyond a reasonable doubt and to a moral certainty. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/ Election Update: Leave The LA Times Poll Alone! Instead of arguing about it or ignoring it, adjust for it. By Nate Silver [excerpt] This has been a fairly consistent difference between this poll and most others. Take the LA Times poll, add 6 points to Clinton, and you usually wind up with something close to the FiveThirtyEight or RealClearPolitics national polling average. What’s the source of the LA Times poll’s Trump lean? There are good “explainers” from The New York Times’s Nate Cohn and Huffington Post Pollster’s David Rothschild. Long story short: The poll’s results are weighted based on how people said they voted in 2012. That’s probably a mistake, because people often misstate or misremember their vote from previous elections. Really? How many of you out there misremember whether you voted for Obama last time? By Eric DuVall WASHINGTON, Aug. 23 (UPI) -- The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Tuesday shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by less than 1 percentage point for a second consecutive day. The online poll shows 47.98 for Clinton, compared to 47.24 for Trump. This is obviously a challenging election for pollsters. One of the candidates is a woman. One is Donald Trump. Both are polarizing figures. Gary Johnson (Libertarian) is approaching double figures. The GOP is split. Hillary's email just keeps on coming. Cell phones are ubiquitous. Who will turn out for whom? The RCP average shows CLINTON +4.3. The seven latest polls included vary from Clinton +2 to +5. Clinton - 41.6
Really? How many of you out there By testing a statement about the general population against LF members, you have just disqualified yourself from being taken at all seriously on the subject of survey bias. A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. Really? How many of you out there By testing a statement about the general population against LF members, you have just disqualified yourself from being taken at all seriously on the subject of survey bias. What sentient being on planet earth does not remember whether or not he or she voted for Obama in the last election? You must be the only one. Your absurd attempt to make believe there was any attempt at testing that statement only proves how full of shit you really are.
The actual statement was "misstate or misremember"; the latter is probably a polite face-saver for the former. How many misstate their vote? Probably quite a few of those many who didn't bother to vote at all but are embarrassed to say so.
A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. Trump Isn’t Tweeting About The Polls Anymore
#2. To: Gatlin (#1)
(Edited)
"As you can tell from the chart, Trump rarely tweets ..."
#3. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)
Hillary Clinton 40.0%
The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll tracks about 3,000 eligible voters until election day, asking on a regular basis about their support for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or other candidates as well as their likelihood of actually casting a ballot.
#4. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)
#5. To: nolu chan (#3)
#6. To: ConservingFreedom (#5)
'All pollsters weight their results somewhat to make sure their samples match known demographics
#7. To: nolu chan (#6)
As they say, all pollsters weight their results, i.e., add a fudge factor. Raw poll results times fudge factor equals whatever they want.
#8. To: ConservingFreedom (#7)
You do understand that the LA Times includes themselves in "all pollsters," right?
#9. To: nolu chan (#8)
all pollsters can get whatever result they are paid to get.
And right after 538 wrote "Trump Isn’t Tweeting About The Polls Anymore," Trump was tweeting about polls.
#10. To: ConservingFreedom (#9)
Can they? Sure. Do they?
Aug 23, 2016 at 1:54 PM
UPI/CVoter poll: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump hold steady in virtual tie
Updated Aug. 23, 2016 at 10:33 AM
Trump - 37.3
Johnson - 8.9
Stein - 3.4
#11. To: nolu chan (#10)
"people often misstate or misremember their vote from previous elections."
#12. To: ConservingFreedom (#11)
"people often misstate or misremember their vote from previous elections."
#13. To: nolu chan (#12)
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