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Title: Trump is losing so badly, the toss-up states don’t even matter
Source:
RedState
URL Source: http://www.redstate.com/neil_steven ... -toss-states-dont-even-matter/
Published: Aug 18, 2016
Author: Neil Stevens
Post Date: 2016-08-18 14:58:29 by Willie Green
Keywords: None
Views: 2363
Comments: 12
It's always easy to discount national polling, when it turns against you. "Fifty state elections!" the losing side cries. "Electoral college! Swing states!" Donald Trump is now losing so badly, that none of that even matters anymore. In the last four elections, the Electoral College projections were very close. Everything came down to the "toss-up" states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania. George W. Bush won them twice, as did Barack Obama, so they went on to win the Presidency. But the current polling is so bad, as Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton, that the toss-up states don't even matter anymore Excluding the toss-up states, RCP has Clinton up 272-174, which means Trump could run the table of NV, AZ, IA, MO, OH, GA, NC, FL and he still loses 272-266. 538 doesn't do toss-up states, but their read of the polls has Trump down to a mere 11% chance of winning, and an underdog even to win a single state Barack Obama won in 2012. 270 to win puts it at Clinton 273-164 Trump. NBC has Clinton ahead 288-174. The way things are going now, the GOP is going to get wiped out in November on a scale we haven't seen since before Ronald Reagan. Poster Comment:
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#1. To: Willie Green (#0)
Willie, I wouldn't be so sure of that if I were you. And BTW, your little video depicts Obama & Hillary supporters. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. if you look around, we have gone so far down the the rat hole, the almighty is going to have to apologize to Sodom and Gomorrah, if we don't have a judgement come down on us. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ Yes, indeed. It's over! As of 18 August, the LA Times daily tracking poll shows that Hillary has an insurmountable lead of 6 tenths of a point, which, when rounded off, equals a full point.
The media, the pollsters - they are more united than ever to stop Trump. Maybe it's true and the nation will reject Trump and elect the felon. But maybe the people will tire of being manipulated and pull a Brexit, Time will tell.
Hogwash
What can Donald offer that is any different than what he has offered so far? His message lacks substance and appeals primarily to his radicalized base. He has nothing more to offer the non-affiliated middle. He's already gone completely negative.... there;s no turning back. Is this what America wants? "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. "Listen piece of shit. Call me anti American again and your're banned. I don't like you." - aka stoned -
Pick that cherry. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election- forecast/national-polls/#plus A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. Read what's at your link and RCP. RCP Average CLINTON +5.8 It will be closer when the two oldest polls on the RCP list drop off. They have Clinton up +13 and +8. The seven most recent polls indicate Clinton +4, +2, +4, +6, +6, +4, +5. - - - - - - - - - - 538 relects adjusted poll results of: CLINTON: +4.8
Any of which are much larger than the six-tenths of a point you were bleating about.
A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. They contradict the exaggeration "Trump is losing so badly, the toss-up states don’t even matter" just about as well as 0.6.
Not really - the same 538 model that shows Hillary up by 3.9 (today) also shows that the states where her (national-poll-adjusted) lead is 4.0 or better are enough for a majority of electoral votes and none of them are NV, AZ, IA, MO, OH, GA, NC, or FL. I will say, though, that RedState's final listing of toss-up states somehow omits PA - which does still matter to the outcome. A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. 11 % chance of winning where's willie
If you ... don't use exclamation points --- you should't be typeing ! Commas - semicolons - question marks are for girlie boys !
" The way things are going now, the GOP is going to get wiped out in November on a scale we haven't seen since before Ronald Reagan. "
#2. To: Willie Green (#0)
#3. To: Willie Green (#0)
#4. To: Willie Green (#0)
#5. To: Willie Green (#0)
Trump is losing so badly, the toss-up states don’t even matter
#6. To: nolu chan (#2)
the LA Times daily tracking poll
#7. To: ConservingFreedom (#6)
Pick that cherry. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election- forecast/national-polls/#plus
8/1 - 8/17
CLINTON - 42.9
TRUMP - 37.1
JOHNSON - 8.6
STEIN - 3.2 CLINTON: 42.7
TRUMP: 37.9
JOHNSON: 9.1
#8. To: nolu chan (#7)
#9. To: ConservingFreedom (#8)
Any of which are much larger than the six-tenths of a point you were bleating about.
#10. To: nolu chan (#9)
(Edited)
They contradict the exaggeration "Trump is losing so badly, the toss-up states don’t even matter" just about as well as 0.6.
#11. To: Willie Green (#0)
(Edited)
#12. To: nolu chan (#2)
Yes, indeed. It's over! As of 18 August, the LA Times daily tracking poll shows that Hillary has an insurmountable lead of 6 tenths of a point, which, when rounded off, equals a full point.
https://gostream.site/the-rocky-horror-picture-show/
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