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Title: Trump is losing so badly, the toss-up states don’t even matter
Source:
RedState
URL Source: http://www.redstate.com/neil_steven ... -toss-states-dont-even-matter/
Published: Aug 18, 2016
Author: Neil Stevens
Post Date: 2016-08-18 14:58:29 by Willie Green
Keywords: None
Views: 1918
Comments: 12
It's always easy to discount national polling, when it turns against you. "Fifty state elections!" the losing side cries. "Electoral college! Swing states!" Donald Trump is now losing so badly, that none of that even matters anymore. In the last four elections, the Electoral College projections were very close. Everything came down to the "toss-up" states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania. George W. Bush won them twice, as did Barack Obama, so they went on to win the Presidency. But the current polling is so bad, as Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton, that the toss-up states don't even matter anymore Excluding the toss-up states, RCP has Clinton up 272-174, which means Trump could run the table of NV, AZ, IA, MO, OH, GA, NC, FL and he still loses 272-266. 538 doesn't do toss-up states, but their read of the polls has Trump down to a mere 11% chance of winning, and an underdog even to win a single state Barack Obama won in 2012. 270 to win puts it at Clinton 273-164 Trump. NBC has Clinton ahead 288-174. The way things are going now, the GOP is going to get wiped out in November on a scale we haven't seen since before Ronald Reagan. Poster Comment:
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 7.
#2. To: Willie Green (#0)
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/ Yes, indeed. It's over! As of 18 August, the LA Times daily tracking poll shows that Hillary has an insurmountable lead of 6 tenths of a point, which, when rounded off, equals a full point.
Pick that cherry. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election- forecast/national-polls/#plus
Read what's at your link and RCP. RCP Average CLINTON +5.8 It will be closer when the two oldest polls on the RCP list drop off. They have Clinton up +13 and +8. The seven most recent polls indicate Clinton +4, +2, +4, +6, +6, +4, +5. - - - - - - - - - - 538 relects adjusted poll results of: CLINTON: +4.8
#8. To: nolu chan (#7)
Any of which are much larger than the six-tenths of a point you were bleating about.
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#6. To: nolu chan (#2)
the LA Times daily tracking poll
#7. To: ConservingFreedom (#6)
Pick that cherry. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election- forecast/national-polls/#plus
8/1 - 8/17
CLINTON - 42.9
TRUMP - 37.1
JOHNSON - 8.6
STEIN - 3.2 CLINTON: 42.7
TRUMP: 37.9
JOHNSON: 9.1
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