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politics and politicians
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Title: FiveThirtyEight gives Trump 1-in-3 chance
Source: FiveThirtyEight
URL Source: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus
Published: Jul 13, 2016
Author: FiveThirtyEight
Post Date: 2016-07-13 17:08:23 by ConservingFreedom
Keywords: None
Views: 3966
Comments: 22

Electoral votes

Hillary Clinton 303.4

Donald Trump 234.4

Gary Johnson 0.2

Popular vote

Hillary Clinton 48.1%

Donald Trump 44.8%

Gary Johnson 5.8%

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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 20.

#6. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)

rooting for a tie with Gary Johnson getting enough elector votes to prevent Evita and Trump from getting the requisite 270 electoral votes. Then it gets thrown into the House (12 Amendment )

tomder55  posted on  2016-07-13   19:02:15 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: tomder55 (#6)

with Gary Johnson getting enough elector votes

FWIW, 538 puts the probability of Johnson getting any electoral votes at between 1.5% and 7.5% (depending on statistical model).

ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-07-14   12:30:27 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


#20. To: ConservingFreedom (#13)

FWIW, 538 puts the probability of Johnson getting any electoral votes at between 1.5% and 7.5% (depending on statistical model).

yes I know there is little chance for that .Ross Perot did not get any. But this is a strange year. Just for fun ; if he took his home state of New Mexico and maybe an independent minded state like NH ......and Evita and Trump end up tied ,but under 270 electors ..... then all bets are off .

tomder55  posted on  2016-07-15   11:45:56 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


Replies to Comment # 20.

#21. To: tomder55 (#20)

and Evita and Trump end up tied ,but under 270 electors ..... then all bets are off .

Would be a hoot. I just noticed that they have a probability for "Electoral College deadlock: no candidate gets 270 electoral votes": between 0.5% and 0.6%.

ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-07-15 12:42:37 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply  


End Trace Mode for Comment # 20.

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