"In September, he (Nate Silver) told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that Trump had a roughly 5-percent chance of beating his GOP rivals.
In November, he explained that Trump’s national following was about as negligible as the share of Americans who believe the Apollo moon landing was faked.
On Twitter, he compared Trump to the band Nickelback, which he described as being “[d]isliked by most, super popular with a few.”
"In September, he (Nate Silver) told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that Trump had a roughly 5-percent chance of beating his GOP rivals.
In November, he explained that Trump’s national following was about as negligible as the share of Americans who believe the Apollo moon landing was faked.
On Twitter, he compared Trump to the band Nickelback, which he described as being “[d]isliked by most, super popular with a few.”
When will he write, "How I Made Lame Excuses For My Emotion-Based Prediction In A Pathetic Attempt To Salvage My Credibility"?
In your book the following is a "lame excuse"? In mine it's a mea culpa.
"we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things."
Had he said that at the time of his prediction, that would have been different.
That makes less than no sense ... if he'd realized at the time of his prediction that he was playing a pundit rather than doing statistics, he wouldn't have made the prediction.
Saying it now sounds like a lame excuse.
You seem to be confusing "explanation" with "excuse."
"That makes less than no sense ... if he'd realized at the time of his prediction that he was playing a pundit rather than doing statistics, he wouldn't have made the prediction."
He admitted his prediction was not based on a model. Meaning he knew at the time that he was playing a pundit. I'm saying he should have admitted that at the time.
"You seem to be confusing "explanation" with "excuse."
No. It's a lame excuse. We would never have heard this "explanation" had he been proven right.
